AkashicMississippi — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 92% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 8-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-SmithRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Scott ColomDNominee | for | |
| Ty PinkinsIndependentNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary held March 10, 2026 (before 2026-06-25). Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is seeking re-election and won the GOP primary with 80.8% — a majority, so no GOP runoff. Scott Colom won the Democratic nomination (~73%). Ty Pinkins qualified for the November ballot as an Independent (no primary required). A general-election runoff would occur Dec 1, 2026 only if no candidate gets a majority in November. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MS state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2012 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchD | Apr 8–12 | 500 LV | Hyde-Smith 47·Colom 44 | R+3 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →