AkashicLouisiana — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 7%; raw Republican YES price 93%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| John FlemingR | — | |
| Julia LetlowR | for against | |
| Jamie DavisD | — | |
| Gary CrockettD | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Louisiana switched from the top-two jungle primary to closed/semi-closed partisan primaries for federal races in 2026 (HB 17, first change since 1978). First-round party primaries were held May 16, 2026; no candidate hit 50% in either party, so June 27, 2026 runoffs (after this audit date) will set the nominees: GOP Letlow (44.8%) vs Fleming (28.3%); Dem Crockett vs Davis. Incumbent Bill Cassidy (R) finished 3rd (24.8%) and was eliminated, making this effectively an open seat for the GOP nomination; the four listed are contested runoff candidates, not yet nominees. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →