AkashicGeorgia — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 90% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 6-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Jon OssoffDIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Mike CollinsRNominee | for |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary held May 19, 2026; Ossoff (incumbent) won the Democratic nomination unopposed. The GOP primary went to a June 16, 2026 runoff (no May majority among Collins, Derek Dooley, Buddy Carter); U.S. Rep. Mike Collins won the runoff (~55.5%) after a Trump endorsement and is the Republican nominee. No notable qualified third-party/independent candidate surfaced (Georgia has restrictive statewide ballot access). A Dec 1 general-election runoff would occur if no candidate gets a majority Nov 3. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the GA state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV | Ossoff 51·Collins 44 | D+7 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV | Ossoff 52·Carter 43 | D+9 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →