AkashicIllinois — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Juliana StrattonDNominee | for against | |
| Don TracyRNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat; incumbent Dick Durbin (D) retiring, not on ballot. Stratton won the contested Dem primary (40.4%) over Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly. Independents Tyrone Muhammad and Anthony Smith are declared but ballot qualification is unconfirmed as of 2026-06-25; excluded pending petition certification. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the IL state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+11 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →