AkashicIllinois — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 6%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Juliana StrattonDNominee | for against | |
| Don TracyRNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat; incumbent Dick Durbin (D) retiring, not on ballot. Stratton won the contested Dem primary (40.4%) over Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly. Independents Tyrone Muhammad and Anthony Smith are declared but ballot qualification is unconfirmed as of 2026-06-25; excluded pending petition certification. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →