AkashicMassachusetts — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| John DeatonRPresumptive | — | |
| Ed MarkeyDIncumbent | for | |
| Seth MoultonD | — | |
| Nathan BechR | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. September 1, 2026 primary not yet held. Incumbent Ed Markey (D) is running for a third full term and faces a genuinely competitive primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton (polls tightened to ~5 pts by May 2026), so neither is a cleared-field frontrunner. On the GOP side, John Deaton is the cleared-field presumptive nominee (MassGOP-endorsed); Nathan Bech is a minor declared challenger. Race rated Safe Democratic. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MA state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+20 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+33 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →