AkashicColorado — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| John HickenlooperDIncumbentPresumptive | for | |
| Mark BaisleyRPresumptive | — | |
| Julie GonzalesD | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Both party primaries are June 30, 2026 (NOT yet held as of June 25). Incumbent John Hickenlooper (D) is the heavy frontrunner over progressive state Sen. Julie Gonzales (D) in a contested primary. State Sen. Mark Baisley is running unopposed in the GOP primary (cleared field, presumptive nominee). Minor general-election filers not yet confirmed on the ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2010 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →