AkashicTexas — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 51% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 9-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| James TalaricoDNominee | for against | |
| Ken PaxtonRNominee | for against | |
| Ted BrownLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent John Cornyn (R) LOST renomination to Ken Paxton (May 26 runoff, Paxton 63.8%). Talarico (D) beat Crockett 52.4% (NOT Allred/Crockett). Cornyn NOT on ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2012 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Talarico 47·Paxton 47 | even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Apr 17–20 | 1,018 LV | Talarico 46·Paxton 41 | D+5 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Apr 17–20 | 1,018 LV | Talarico 44·Cornyn 41 | D+3 |
| YouGov | Apr 10–20 | 1,200 RV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →