Akashic
1876–2024
U.S. Senate / Class 2

Texas — U.S. Senate

ForecastA single, locked expectationas of June 22, 2026. Predicted outcomes, never results.

The call

Lean R

We expect Republican to win 81%.

RatingLean R
Win probabilityR 81%
Predicted margin
The substrate
2024 baselineR+13.7
2020 resultR+9.6
Seat held byRepublican

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX state page.

On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →