AkashicDelaware — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 95%; raw Republican YES price 6%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Chris CoonsDIncumbentPresumptive | |
| John ShulliR | |
| Michael KatzR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary is Sept 15, 2026 (not yet held as of 2026-06-25). Coons (incumbent, seeking a third full term) is the cleared-field Democratic frontrunner; his only primary challenger, Christopher Beardsley, withdrew to run for state senate. GOP field is Shulli vs. Katz. Race rated Solid/Safe D. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →