AkashicOhio — U.S. Senate (special)
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win this special.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 51% chance to win this special.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 7-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Sherrod BrownDNominee | for against | |
| Jon HustedRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| William RedpathLibertarianNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. SPECIAL (Class 3, Vance→VP). Husted (R, appointed) running. Sherrod Brown (D) won primary ~89.4%. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OH state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Husted 50·Brown 47 | R+3 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 7–14 | 1,000 RV | Husted 50·Brown 47 | R+3 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | — | Husted 51·Brown 45 | R+6 |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 13–14 | 925 LV | Husted 46 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →