Akashic2026 forecast
Michigan — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Lean D
71%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
Akashic modelDemocratic 71%MarketDemocratic 67%agree · 4 pts in line
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Total volume
$145k
Liquidity
$55k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Mike RogersRPresumptive | for against | |
| Haley StevensD | for | |
| Mallory McMorrowD | for | |
| Abdul El-SayedD |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+1.4
2020 result
D+1.7
Seat held by
Democratic
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI state page.
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Michigan
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | even |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+21 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →