- Lead
- 952
- Total
- 1,109
- vs nation
- R+84.4
- Turnout
- 79.0%
Armstrong County, TX
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 79.0% of 1,421 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 960
- Total
- 1,112
- vs nation
- R+90.8
- Turnout
- 76.1%
- Lead
- 854
- Total
- 1,021
- vs nation
- R+85.7
- Turnout
- 70.3%
- Lead
- 730
- Total
- 935
- vs nation
- R+81.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 728
- Total
- 990
- vs nation
- R+80.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 660
- Total
- 1,004
- vs nation
- R+63.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 622
- Total
- 938
- vs nation
- R+66.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 310
- Total
- 936
- vs nation
- R+41.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+85.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 1,8222024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,7502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+92.6 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+86.3 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carson County, TX · twin score 95.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 79.0%1,122 participants ÷ 1,421 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 64.6%–66.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 1,027 | 1,460 | 70.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 903 | 1,513 | 59.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 1,118 | 1,469 | 76.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 905 | 1,466 | 61.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 1,122 | 1,421 | 79.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
8 precincts · 1,114 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 101Precinct 101 | 17 | 257 | 3 | 277 | 6.1% | 92.8% | R+86.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 301Precinct 301 | 14 | 238 | 2 | 254 | 5.5% | 93.7% | R+88.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 201Precinct 201 | 20 | 161 | 1 | 182 | 11.0% | 88.5% | R+77.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 402Precinct 402 | 7 | 132 | 2 | 141 | 5.0% | 93.6% | R+88.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 401Precinct 401 | 8 | 131 | 0 | 139 | 5.8% | 94.2% | R+88.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 202Precinct 202 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 58 | 8.6% | 91.4% | R+82.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 303Precinct 303 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 39 | 15.4% | 84.6% | R+69.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 404Precinct 404 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +79.9% |
| 1908 | +74.1% |
| 1912 | +69.3% |
| 1916 | +76.2% |
| 1920 | +64.0% |
| 1924 | +57.6% |
| 1928 | +8.3% |
| 1932 | +85.5% |
| 1936 | +92.6% |
| 1940 | +83.1% |
| 1944 | +61.4% |
| 1948 | +72.2% |
| 1952 | −13.8% |
| 1956 | +6.3% |
| 1960 | −14.3% |
| 1964 | +19.7% |
| 1968 | −14.1% |
| 1972 | −62.1% |
| 1976 | +0.7% |
| 1980 | −35.3% |
| 1984 | −53.5% |
| 1988 | −39.0% |
| 1992 | −27.5% |
| 1996 | −33.1% |
| 2000 | −66.3% |
| 2004 | −65.7% |
| 2008 | −73.5% |
| 2012 | −78.1% |
| 2016 | −83.6% |
| 2020 | −86.3% |
| 2024 | −85.8% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,391 |
| 2018 | 1,428 |
| 2020 | 1,498 |
| 2022 | 1,445 |
| 2024 | 1,429 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+33 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +69 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,145 in average income, against $82,029 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Randall County, TX25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +39 |
| 2012 | +19 |
| 2013 | −8 |
| 2014 | −15 |
| 2015 | −4 |
| 2016 | −34 |
| 2017 | +28 |
| 2018 | +5 |
| 2019 | +10 |
| 2021 | +5 |
| 2022 | +24 |
| 2023 | −18 |
| 2024 | −15 |
| 2025 | +33 |
Armstrong County sits deep in the Texas Panhandle with fewer than 2,200 residents spread across 1,900 square miles. Its 2024 presidential margin of R+85.8 ranks among the widest in the state, reflecting a ranching economy and sparse rural demography.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 92.6 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 86.3 points in 2020. The 2024 margin was 85.8 points.
A population of 1,822, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,750 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carson County and Alfalfa County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Armstrong County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48011/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.