HarrisDemocratic18.0%6,919TrumpRepublican81.4%31,379OliverLibertarian0.4%152
R+63.5- Lead
- 24,460
- Total
- 38,540
- vs nation
- R+62.0
- Turnout
- 60.3%
Akashiccounty
Henderson County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 60.3% of 64,095 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic19.4%7,060TrumpRepublican79.5%28,911JorgensenLibertarian0.7%264
R+60.1- Lead
- 21,851
- Total
- 36,368
- vs nation
- R+64.5
- Turnout
- 58.8%
ClintonDemocratic18.9%5,669TrumpRepublican78.7%23,650JohnsonLibertarian1.8%535
R+59.8- Lead
- 17,981
- Total
- 30,045
- vs nation
- R+61.9
- Turnout
- 52.8%
ObamaDemocratic22.1%6,106RomneyRepublican76.8%21,231GrayLibertarian0.9%236
R+54.7- Lead
- 15,125
- Total
- 27,627
- vs nation
- R+58.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic27.3%7,913McCainRepublican71.9%20,857OtherAll other candidates0.8%223
R+44.6- Lead
- 12,944
- Total
- 28,993
- vs nation
- R+51.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic29.5%8,505BushRepublican70.1%20,210OtherAll other candidates0.5%134
R+40.6- Lead
- 11,705
- Total
- 28,849
- vs nation
- R+38.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic34.0%8,704BushRepublican64.8%16,607NaderGreen0.8%201
R+30.8- Lead
- 7,903
- Total
- 25,627
- vs nation
- R+31.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.3%10,085DoleRepublican45.4%10,345PerotReform10.0%2,274
R+1.1- Lead
- 260
- Total
- 22,772
- vs nation
- R+9.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+63.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 84,8622024 5-year
- Median household income
- $65,1792024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 73.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 14.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+87.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.5 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Van Zandt County, TX · twin score 96.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 60.3%38,675 participants ÷ 64,095 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -5.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 46.5%–49.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 30,904 | 58,483 | 52.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 26,969 | 59,854 | 45.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 36,310 | 61,704 | 58.8% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 28,124 | 62,557 | 45.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 38,675 | 64,095 | 60.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
30 precincts · 38,603 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 4SEPrecinct 4SE | 437 | 2,216 | 24 | 2,677 | 16.3% | 82.8% | R+66.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 3BPrecinct 3B | 226 | 1,899 | 16 | 2,141 | 10.6% | 88.7% | R+78.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4LPPrecinct 4LP | 331 | 1,597 | 18 | 1,946 | 17.0% | 82.1% | R+65.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2PSSPrecinct 2PSS | 341 | 1,547 | 10 | 1,898 | 18.0% | 81.5% | R+63.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1TCPrecinct 1TC | 353 | 1,497 | 15 | 1,865 | 18.9% | 80.3% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2GBNPrecinct 2GBN | 387 | 1,458 | 16 | 1,861 | 20.8% | 78.3% | R+57.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2EPrecinct 2E | 229 | 1,461 | 12 | 1,702 | 13.5% | 85.8% | R+72.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1CRPrecinct 1CR | 201 | 1,412 | 7 | 1,620 | 12.4% | 87.2% | R+74.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2PSNPrecinct 2PSN | 281 | 1,294 | 9 | 1,584 | 17.7% | 81.7% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3CPrecinct 3C | 269 | 1,276 | 17 | 1,562 | 17.2% | 81.7% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2GBSPrecinct 2GBS | 277 | 1,273 | 11 | 1,561 | 17.7% | 81.6% | R+63.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1TPrecinct 1T | 310 | 1,221 | 10 | 1,541 | 20.1% | 79.2% | R+59.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1MPrecinct 1M | 342 | 1,164 | 17 | 1,523 | 22.5% | 76.4% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3CSPrecinct 3CS | 206 | 1,263 | 12 | 1,481 | 13.9% | 85.3% | R+71.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1APrecinct 1A | 183 | 1,206 | 9 | 1,398 | 13.1% | 86.3% | R+73.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4NLPPrecinct 4NLP | 129 | 1,205 | 4 | 1,338 | 9.6% | 90.1% | R+80.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 288 | 925 | 19 | 1,232 | 23.4% | 75.1% | R+51.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3MPrecinct 3M | 148 | 1,013 | 8 | 1,169 | 12.7% | 86.7% | R+74.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4BPrecinct 4B | 309 | 791 | 8 | 1,108 | 27.9% | 71.4% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3WSPrecinct 3WS | 157 | 782 | 3 | 942 | 16.7% | 83.0% | R+66.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1MNPrecinct 1MN | 170 | 750 | 12 | 932 | 18.2% | 80.5% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3NPrecinct 3N | 104 | 812 | 2 | 918 | 11.3% | 88.5% | R+77.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4WPrecinct 4W | 149 | 686 | 5 | 840 | 17.7% | 81.7% | R+63.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4MSPrecinct 4MS | 251 | 516 | 5 | 772 | 32.5% | 66.8% | R+34.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 374 | 320 | 17 | 711 | 52.6% | 45.0% | D+7.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3NWPrecinct 3NW | 106 | 473 | 5 | 584 | 18.2% | 81.0% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2MPrecinct 2M | 88 | 441 | 2 | 531 | 16.6% | 83.1% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4APrecinct 4A | 150 | 314 | 2 | 466 | 32.2% | 67.4% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 90 | 330 | 4 | 424 | 21.2% | 77.8% | R+56.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 33 | 237 | 6 | 276 | 12.0% | 85.9% | R+73.9 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | +59.2% |
| 1912 | +61.4% |
| 1916 | +63.1% |
| 1920 | +39.7% |
| 1924 | +79.3% |
| 1928 | +21.0% |
| 1932 | +87.8% |
| 1936 | +85.1% |
| 1940 | +67.3% |
| 1944 | +66.2% |
| 1948 | +70.9% |
| 1952 | +27.3% |
| 1956 | +10.5% |
| 1960 | +14.9% |
| 1964 | +40.3% |
| 1968 | +10.1% |
| 1972 | −39.1% |
| 1976 | +27.7% |
| 1980 | +1.8% |
| 1984 | −27.0% |
| 1988 | −5.7% |
| 1992 | +3.0% |
| 1996 | −1.1% |
| 2000 | −30.8% |
| 2004 | −40.6% |
| 2008 | −44.6% |
| 2012 | −54.7% |
| 2016 | −59.8% |
| 2020 | −60.1% |
| 2024 | −63.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 36 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 50,704 |
| 2018 | 50,899 |
| 2020 | 54,663 |
| 2022 | 58,253 |
| 2024 | 59,479 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,377 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +13,316 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $78,090 in average income, against $70,863 for residents who stayed — 10% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+24.6 on average — 39 points more Democratic-leaning than Henderson County, TX itself (R+63.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Kaufman County, TX463R+27.9
- Dallas County, TX384D+22.2
- Smith County, TX340R+45.1
- Van Zandt County, TX157R+74.8
- Tarrant County, TX155R+5.1
- Anderson County, TX107R+61.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Smith County, TX358
- Kaufman County, TX335
- Dallas County, TX203
- Van Zandt County, TX169
- Tarrant County, TX114
- Anderson County, TX96
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +178 |
| 2012 | +186 |
| 2013 | −160 |
| 2014 | +682 |
| 2015 | +311 |
| 2016 | +693 |
| 2017 | +1,075 |
| 2018 | +1,398 |
| 2019 | +836 |
| 2021 | +1,990 |
| 2022 | +1,353 |
| 2023 | +1,964 |
| 2024 | +1,433 |
| 2025 | +1,377 |
Henderson County, anchored by the city of Athens in the Piney Woods region, delivered an R+63.5 margin in 2024 — a gap that reflects both its rural character and a decades-long rightward shift among East Texas working-class voters.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 87.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 63.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 63.5 points.
A population of 84,862, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,179 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Van Zandt County and Montague County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Van Zandt County
Texas
96.6twin score
2008–2016 trajectoryelasticity
Montague County
Texas
95.3twin score
2008–2024 trajectoryelasticity
Upshur County
Texas
95.0twin score
2008–2024 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Henderson County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48213/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Henderson County
Texas at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Henderson County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Henderson County, Texas voted Republican by 63.5 points (R+63.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 38,540 votes cast, 6,919 went Democratic and 31,379 went Republican.
When did Henderson County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Henderson County, Texas voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Henderson County, Texas?
Henderson County, Texas has a population of 84,862 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Henderson County, Texas?
Median household income in Henderson County, Texas is $65,179 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Henderson County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Henderson County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 11 went Republican.