- Lead
- 8,617
- Total
- 11,101
- vs nation
- R+76.2
- Turnout
- 70.7%
Montague County, TX
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 70.7% of 15,798 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 7,518
- Total
- 9,832
- vs nation
- R+80.9
- Turnout
- 66.9%
- Lead
- 6,641
- Total
- 8,604
- vs nation
- R+79.3
- Turnout
- 60.6%
- Lead
- 5,433
- Total
- 7,751
- vs nation
- R+73.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,648
- Total
- 7,950
- vs nation
- R+65.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,964
- Total
- 7,897
- vs nation
- R+47.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,695
- Total
- 7,330
- vs nation
- R+37.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 311
- Total
- 6,626
- vs nation
- R+13.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+77.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 21,0462024 5-year
- Median household income
- $64,5452024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+83.6 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+77.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Van Zandt County, TX · twin score 97.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 70.7%11,163 participants ÷ 15,798 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 55.9%–58.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,604 | 14,195 | 60.6% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 7,421 | 14,391 | 51.6% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 9,844 | 14,720 | 66.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,881 | 15,134 | 52.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 11,163 | 15,798 | 70.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
15 precincts · 11,097 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 224 | 1,847 | 11 | 2,082 | 10.8% | 88.7% | R+78.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 123 | 971 | 4 | 1,098 | 11.2% | 88.4% | R+77.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 122 | 887 | 3 | 1,012 | 12.1% | 87.6% | R+75.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 85 | 805 | 2 | 892 | 9.5% | 90.2% | R+80.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 95 | 724 | 9 | 828 | 11.5% | 87.4% | R+76.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 88 | 693 | 8 | 789 | 11.2% | 87.8% | R+76.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 78 | 700 | 4 | 782 | 10.0% | 89.5% | R+79.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 90 | 641 | 1 | 732 | 12.3% | 87.6% | R+75.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 85 | 621 | 5 | 711 | 12.0% | 87.3% | R+75.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8Precinct 8 | 73 | 621 | 6 | 700 | 10.4% | 88.7% | R+78.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 42 | 417 | 3 | 462 | 9.1% | 90.3% | R+81.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 15Precinct 15 | 52 | 390 | 5 | 447 | 11.6% | 87.2% | R+75.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 16Precinct 16 | 26 | 218 | 3 | 247 | 10.5% | 88.3% | R+77.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 14Precinct 14 | 16 | 193 | 0 | 209 | 7.7% | 92.3% | R+84.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 9 | 97 | 0 | 106 | 8.5% | 91.5% | R+83.0 |
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | +68.6% |
| 1912 | +64.2% |
| 1916 | +67.9% |
| 1920 | +51.8% |
| 1924 | +50.5% |
| 1928 | −2.3% |
| 1932 | +83.6% |
| 1936 | +78.8% |
| 1940 | +72.6% |
| 1944 | +66.6% |
| 1948 | +67.4% |
| 1952 | +12.0% |
| 1956 | +8.1% |
| 1960 | +5.5% |
| 1964 | +54.4% |
| 1968 | +15.7% |
| 1972 | −45.7% |
| 1976 | +30.3% |
| 1980 | +1.4% |
| 1984 | −25.7% |
| 1988 | +3.0% |
| 1992 | +7.7% |
| 1996 | −4.7% |
| 2000 | −36.8% |
| 2004 | −50.2% |
| 2008 | −58.5% |
| 2012 | −70.1% |
| 2016 | −77.2% |
| 2020 | −76.5% |
| 2024 | −77.6% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 12,853 |
| 2020 | 14,001 |
| 2022 | 14,661 |
| 2024 | 15,649 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+202 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +2,974 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $82,016 in average income, against $80,109 for residents who stayed — 2% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+40.2 on average — 37 points more Democratic-leaning than Montague County, TX itself (R+77.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Wise County, TX103R+70.0
- Tarrant County, TX92R+5.1
- Denton County, TX90R+13.1
- Wichita County, TX45R+44.0
- Cooke County, TX32R+66.8
- Parker County, TX27R+66.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Tarrant County, TX52
- Wichita County, TX52
- Wise County, TX51
- Denton County, TX49
- Cooke County, TX34
- Clay County, TX23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +66 |
| 2012 | −251 |
| 2013 | −27 |
| 2014 | −7 |
| 2015 | −55 |
| 2016 | +163 |
| 2017 | +64 |
| 2018 | +248 |
| 2019 | +294 |
| 2021 | +638 |
| 2022 | +747 |
| 2023 | +615 |
| 2024 | +277 |
| 2025 | +202 |
Montague County, anchored by the small city of Nocona, delivered over 88% of its presidential vote to the Republican column in 2024, reflecting the heavily Republican pattern common to rural North Texas counties with agricultural and ranching economies.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 83.6 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 77.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 77.6 points.
A population of 21,046, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,545 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Van Zandt County and Rains County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Montague County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48337/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.