- Lead
- 1,093
- Total
- 4,871
- vs nation
- R+21.0
- Turnout
- 70.2%
Zapata County, TX
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 70.2% of 7,173 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 207
- Total
- 3,878
- vs nation
- R+9.8
- Turnout
- 57.7%
- Lead
- 1,034
- Total
- 3,142
- vs nation
- D+30.8
- Turnout
- 50.8%
- Lead
- 1,530
- Total
- 3,543
- vs nation
- D+39.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,020
- Total
- 2,866
- vs nation
- D+28.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 434
- Total
- 2,898
- vs nation
- D+17.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 685
- Total
- 2,616
- vs nation
- D+25.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,265
- Total
- 2,450
- vs nation
- D+43.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+22.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 13,8412024 5-year
- Median household income
- $39,2392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 4.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 93.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+87.9 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+100.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Starr County, TX · twin score 97.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 70.2%5,037 participants ÷ 7,173 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +5.5 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -13.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 58.9%–64.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,142 | 6,183 | 50.8% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,244 | 6,683 | 33.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 4,168 | 7,219 | 57.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 3,875 | 7,417 | 52.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,037 | 7,173 | 70.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
7 precincts · 4,871 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 485 | 968 | 6 | 1,459 | 33.2% | 66.3% | R+33.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 484 | 651 | 7 | 1,142 | 42.4% | 57.0% | R+14.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 334 | 605 | 5 | 944 | 35.4% | 64.1% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 373 | 466 | 5 | 844 | 44.2% | 55.2% | R+11.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2APrecinct 2A | 150 | 205 | 0 | 355 | 42.3% | 57.7% | R+15.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1APrecinct 1A | 20 | 44 | 1 | 65 | 30.8% | 67.7% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1BPrecinct 1B | 31 | 31 | 0 | 62 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Exact tie |
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | −85.5% |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | −100.0% |
| 1916 | −78.3% |
| 1920 | −32.4% |
| 1924 | +20.7% |
| 1928 | +87.9% |
| 1932 | +83.7% |
| 1936 | +78.5% |
| 1940 | +22.6% |
| 1944 | +83.7% |
| 1948 | +20.8% |
| 1952 | +7.9% |
| 1956 | +16.3% |
| 1960 | +44.4% |
| 1964 | +76.2% |
| 1968 | +54.3% |
| 1972 | +5.0% |
| 1976 | +44.8% |
| 1980 | +16.1% |
| 1984 | +13.0% |
| 1988 | +38.7% |
| 1992 | +36.5% |
| 1996 | +51.6% |
| 2000 | +26.2% |
| 2004 | +15.0% |
| 2008 | +35.6% |
| 2012 | +43.2% |
| 2016 | +32.9% |
| 2020 | −5.3% |
| 2024 | −22.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 7,590 |
| 2020 | 8,257 |
| 2022 | 7,886 |
| 2024 | 8,182 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−148 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −2,131 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $46,059 in average income, against $38,946 for residents who stayed — 18% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+2.2 on average — 20 points more Democratic-leaning than Zapata County, TX itself (R+22.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Webb County, TX41R+2.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Webb County, TX44
- Bexar County, TX23
- Hidalgo County, TX20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −79 |
| 2012 | −158 |
| 2013 | −87 |
| 2014 | −214 |
| 2015 | −120 |
| 2016 | −244 |
| 2017 | −307 |
| 2018 | −228 |
| 2019 | −66 |
| 2021 | −51 |
| 2022 | −129 |
| 2023 | −185 |
| 2024 | −115 |
| 2025 | −148 |
Zapata County, where Spanish is the dominant home language and the economy leans heavily on ranching and oil, recorded a 22-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 — a dramatic reversal from the double-digit Democratic leads it posted just eight years earlier.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 87.9 points in 1928 and a Republican high of 100.0 points in 1912. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 17.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 22.4 points.
A population of 13,841, a 5% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $39,239 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Starr County and Maverick County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Zapata County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48505/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.