HarrisDemocratic40.2%15,989TrumpRepublican58.5%23,301OliverLibertarian0.8%299
R+18.4- Lead
- 7,312
- Total
- 39,806
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Turnout
- 57.7%
Akashiccounty
Bastrop County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 57.7% of 69,337 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic42.1%15,474TrumpRepublican55.8%20,516JorgensenLibertarian1.4%531
R+13.7- Lead
- 5,042
- Total
- 36,762
- vs nation
- R+18.2
- Turnout
- 63.3%
ClintonDemocratic36.9%10,569TrumpRepublican57.0%16,328JohnsonLibertarian3.7%1,063
R+20.1- Lead
- 5,759
- Total
- 28,665
- vs nation
- R+22.2
- Turnout
- 55.4%
ObamaDemocratic40.3%9,864RomneyRepublican57.3%14,033GrayLibertarian1.9%465
R+17.0- Lead
- 4,169
- Total
- 24,481
- vs nation
- R+20.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic45.1%11,687McCainRepublican53.3%13,817OtherAll other candidates1.6%414
R+8.2- Lead
- 2,130
- Total
- 25,918
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic41.8%9,794BushRepublican56.7%13,290OtherAll other candidates1.5%357
R+14.9- Lead
- 3,496
- Total
- 23,441
- vs nation
- R+12.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic38.1%6,973BushRepublican56.3%10,310NaderGreen4.8%871
R+18.2- Lead
- 3,337
- Total
- 18,308
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic46.4%6,773DoleRepublican43.4%6,323PerotReform9.2%1,342
D+3.1- Lead
- 450
- Total
- 14,585
- vs nation
- R+5.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 106,5822024 5-year
- Median household income
- $86,2262024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 44.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 45.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+88.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+23.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Yakima County, WA · twin score 94.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 57.7%40,029 participants ÷ 69,337 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 39.2%–45.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 28,665 | 51,746 | 55.4% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 27,461 | 55,235 | 49.7% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 36,943 | 58,355 | 63.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 29,363 | 65,608 | 44.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 40,029 | 69,337 | 57.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
26 precincts · 39,917 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 1007Precinct 1007 | 1,001 | 1,497 | 46 | 2,544 | 39.3% | 58.8% | R+19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 2013Precinct 2013 | 809 | 1,402 | 30 | 2,241 | 36.1% | 62.6% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2014Precinct 2014 | 694 | 1,511 | 32 | 2,237 | 31.0% | 67.5% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2015Precinct 2015 | 790 | 1,397 | 25 | 2,212 | 35.7% | 63.2% | R+27.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2016Precinct 2016 | 520 | 1,591 | 29 | 2,140 | 24.3% | 74.3% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1003Precinct 1003 | 769 | 1,332 | 30 | 2,131 | 36.1% | 62.5% | R+26.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2011Precinct 2011 | 840 | 1,101 | 27 | 1,968 | 42.7% | 55.9% | R+13.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3017Precinct 3017 | 702 | 1,192 | 29 | 1,923 | 36.5% | 62.0% | R+25.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3020Precinct 3020 | 996 | 782 | 25 | 1,803 | 55.2% | 43.4% | D+11.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4021Precinct 4021 | 761 | 996 | 34 | 1,791 | 42.5% | 55.6% | R+13.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4022Precinct 4022 | 714 | 978 | 23 | 1,715 | 41.6% | 57.0% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4026Precinct 4026 | 911 | 681 | 39 | 1,631 | 55.9% | 41.8% | D+14.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3019Precinct 3019 | 690 | 832 | 22 | 1,544 | 44.7% | 53.9% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1004Precinct 1004 | 777 | 720 | 33 | 1,530 | 50.8% | 47.1% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1006Precinct 1006 | 619 | 859 | 23 | 1,501 | 41.2% | 57.2% | R+16.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1009Precinct 1009 | 588 | 769 | 21 | 1,378 | 42.7% | 55.8% | R+13.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4025Precinct 4025 | 834 | 516 | 26 | 1,376 | 60.6% | 37.5% | D+23.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2012Precinct 2012 | 416 | 904 | 22 | 1,342 | 31.0% | 67.4% | R+36.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1008Precinct 1008 | 607 | 662 | 24 | 1,293 | 46.9% | 51.2% | R+4.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3018Precinct 3018 | 343 | 866 | 13 | 1,222 | 28.1% | 70.9% | R+42.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4024Precinct 4024 | 477 | 704 | 23 | 1,204 | 39.6% | 58.5% | R+18.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4023Precinct 4023 | 311 | 714 | 11 | 1,036 | 30.0% | 68.9% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1005Precinct 1005 | 312 | 517 | 14 | 843 | 37.0% | 61.3% | R+24.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1002Precinct 1002 | 237 | 336 | 13 | 586 | 40.4% | 57.3% | R+16.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2010Precinct 2010 | 172 | 240 | 8 | 420 | 41.0% | 57.1% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1001Precinct 1001 | 99 | 202 | 5 | 306 | 32.4% | 66.0% | R+33.7 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +86.2% |
| 1908 | +40.1% |
| 1912 | +54.8% |
| 1916 | +41.1% |
| 1920 | +27.9% |
| 1924 | +64.2% |
| 1928 | +28.7% |
| 1932 | +88.9% |
| 1936 | +84.4% |
| 1940 | +66.4% |
| 1944 | +67.5% |
| 1948 | +64.1% |
| 1952 | +34.3% |
| 1956 | +24.1% |
| 1960 | +40.6% |
| 1964 | +55.1% |
| 1968 | +24.1% |
| 1972 | −23.8% |
| 1976 | +33.4% |
| 1980 | +10.8% |
| 1984 | −15.1% |
| 1988 | +14.3% |
| 1992 | +8.8% |
| 1996 | +3.1% |
| 2000 | −18.2% |
| 2004 | −14.9% |
| 2008 | −8.2% |
| 2012 | −17.0% |
| 2016 | −20.1% |
| 2020 | −13.7% |
| 2024 | −18.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 47,519 |
| 2020 | 52,096 |
| 2022 | 55,779 |
| 2024 | 61,403 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,254 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +27,848 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,085 in average income, against $78,402 for residents who stayed — 8% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+21.8 on average — 40 points more Democratic-leaning than Bastrop County, TX itself (R+18.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Travis County, TX1,798D+39.3
- Williamson County, TX368R+2.4
- Hays County, TX181D+5.6
- Harris County, TX111D+5.5
- Bexar County, TX88D+9.7
- Caldwell County, TX84R+14.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Travis County, TX956
- Williamson County, TX242
- Hays County, TX186
- Caldwell County, TX103
- Harris County, TX75
- Bexar County, TX73
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +354 |
| 2012 | −565 |
| 2013 | +819 |
| 2014 | +1,497 |
| 2015 | +1,968 |
| 2016 | +2,073 |
| 2017 | +1,598 |
| 2018 | +1,677 |
| 2019 | +1,809 |
| 2021 | +4,039 |
| 2022 | +3,453 |
| 2023 | +3,855 |
| 2024 | +3,017 |
| 2025 | +2,254 |
Bastrop County sits southeast of Austin along the Colorado River, drawing newcomers from the metro while remaining reliably Republican — Trump carried it by 18 points in 2024 despite a decade of rapid population growth.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 88.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 23.8 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.4 points.
A population of 106,582, a 44% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $86,226 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Yakima County and Franklin County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Yakima County
Washington
94.8twin score
% Latino12-yr trend% White
Franklin County
Washington
92.8twin score
% Latino12-yr trend% White≠ median age
Caldwell County
Texas
92.7twin score
% Latino12-yr trend% White≠ Scottish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Bastrop County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Bastrop County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Bastrop County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Bastrop County, Texas voted Republican by 18.4 points (R+18.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 39,806 votes cast, 15,989 went Democratic and 23,301 went Republican.
When did Bastrop County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Bastrop County, Texas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Bastrop County, Texas?
Bastrop County, Texas has a population of 106,582 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Bastrop County, Texas?
Median household income in Bastrop County, Texas is $86,226 — above the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Bastrop County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Bastrop County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.