- Lead
- 6,726
- Total
- 13,312
- vs nation
- R+49.1
- Turnout
- 54.2%
Matagorda County, TX
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 54.2% of 24,648 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 6,112
- Total
- 13,727
- vs nation
- R+49.0
- Turnout
- 54.8%
- Lead
- 4,866
- Total
- 12,196
- vs nation
- R+42.0
- Turnout
- 50.0%
- Lead
- 4,060
- Total
- 12,133
- vs nation
- R+37.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,395
- Total
- 12,373
- vs nation
- R+34.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,764
- Total
- 12,521
- vs nation
- R+27.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,888
- Total
- 12,459
- vs nation
- R+23.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 502
- Total
- 12,494
- vs nation
- R+12.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+50.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 36,3292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $58,6282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 41.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 43.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+66.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.5 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Dawson County, TX · twin score 92.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 54.2%13,364 participants ÷ 24,648 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 38.6%–42.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 12,415 | 24,844 | 50.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 10,484 | 24,832 | 42.2% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 13,836 | 25,264 | 54.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,748 | 24,889 | 39.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 13,364 | 24,648 | 54.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
18 precincts · 13,312 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 1BPrecinct 1B | 511 | 1,372 | 15 | 1,898 | 26.9% | 72.3% | R+45.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 1APrecinct 1A | 313 | 1,350 | 8 | 1,671 | 18.7% | 80.8% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 279 | 1,108 | 13 | 1,400 | 19.9% | 79.1% | R+59.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3APrecinct 3A | 331 | 824 | 18 | 1,173 | 28.2% | 70.2% | R+42.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 204 | 928 | 10 | 1,142 | 17.9% | 81.3% | R+63.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 107 | 846 | 2 | 955 | 11.2% | 88.6% | R+77.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1EPrecinct 1E | 322 | 513 | 9 | 844 | 38.2% | 60.8% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1DPrecinct 1D | 214 | 388 | 11 | 613 | 34.9% | 63.3% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3BPrecinct 3B | 102 | 477 | 6 | 585 | 17.4% | 81.5% | R+64.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 97 | 464 | 4 | 565 | 17.2% | 82.1% | R+65.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8Precinct 8 | 95 | 437 | 4 | 536 | 17.7% | 81.5% | R+63.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1CPrecinct 1C | 336 | 159 | 10 | 505 | 66.5% | 31.5% | D+35.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1FPrecinct 1F | 130 | 297 | 3 | 430 | 30.2% | 69.1% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 38 | 228 | 3 | 269 | 14.1% | 84.8% | R+70.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 70 | 188 | 3 | 261 | 26.8% | 72.0% | R+45.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 26 | 152 | 1 | 179 | 14.5% | 84.9% | R+70.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 11 | 145 | 4 | 160 | 6.9% | 90.6% | R+83.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 45 | 81 | 0 | 126 | 35.7% | 64.3% | R+28.6 |
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +54.0% |
| 1908 | +54.4% |
| 1912 | +54.3% |
| 1916 | +45.5% |
| 1920 | +3.5% |
| 1924 | +19.4% |
| 1928 | −18.0% |
| 1932 | +66.3% |
| 1936 | +57.3% |
| 1940 | +53.5% |
| 1944 | +47.0% |
| 1948 | +18.6% |
| 1952 | −32.5% |
| 1956 | −34.2% |
| 1960 | −0.1% |
| 1964 | +26.5% |
| 1968 | +5.9% |
| 1972 | −33.8% |
| 1976 | +14.8% |
| 1980 | −9.2% |
| 1984 | −23.7% |
| 1988 | −8.8% |
| 1992 | −4.3% |
| 1996 | −4.0% |
| 2000 | −23.2% |
| 2004 | −30.1% |
| 2008 | −27.4% |
| 2012 | −33.5% |
| 2016 | −39.9% |
| 2020 | −44.5% |
| 2024 | −50.5% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 21,536 |
| 2018 | 21,662 |
| 2020 | 22,026 |
| 2022 | 21,681 |
| 2024 | 22,394 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+65 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −2,351 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,707 in average income, against $68,873 for residents who stayed — 9% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+16.9 on average — 34 points more Democratic-leaning than Matagorda County, TX itself (R+50.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Brazoria County, TX136R+19.7
- Harris County, TX125D+5.5
- Wharton County, TX74R+51.8
- Fort Bend County, TX45D+1.6
- Victoria County, TX24R+42.5
- Jackson County, TX23R+70.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Brazoria County, TX134
- Harris County, TX100
- Fort Bend County, TX59
- Wharton County, TX50
- Victoria County, TX37
- Jackson County, TX25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −226 |
| 2012 | −341 |
| 2013 | −135 |
| 2014 | −192 |
| 2015 | +110 |
| 2016 | +152 |
| 2017 | −457 |
| 2018 | −410 |
| 2019 | −79 |
| 2021 | −10 |
| 2022 | −449 |
| 2023 | −34 |
| 2024 | −345 |
| 2025 | +65 |
Matagorda County lines Matagorda Bay with an economy anchored in oil refining and chemical processing. Its largely rural, working-class electorate has shifted sharply rightward over the past decade, delivering lopsided margins in statewide and federal races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 66.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 50.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 50.5 points.
A population of 36,329, a 41% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,628 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Dawson County and Castro County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Matagorda County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48321/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.