HarrisDemocratic34.0%33,850TrumpRepublican65.1%64,763OliverLibertarian0.5%521
R+31.1- Lead
- 30,913
- Total
- 99,557
- vs nation
- R+29.6
- Turnout
- 68.2%
Akashiccounty
Ellis County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.2% of 147,178 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic32.2%27,565TrumpRepublican66.2%56,717JorgensenLibertarian1.1%954
R+34.0- Lead
- 29,152
- Total
- 85,688
- vs nation
- R+38.5
- Turnout
- 69.3%
ClintonDemocratic25.4%16,253TrumpRepublican70.1%44,941JohnsonLibertarian2.7%1,747
R+44.7- Lead
- 28,688
- Total
- 64,110
- vs nation
- R+46.8
- Turnout
- 59.6%
ObamaDemocratic25.6%13,881RomneyRepublican72.9%39,574GrayLibertarian0.9%499
R+47.4- Lead
- 25,693
- Total
- 54,254
- vs nation
- R+51.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic28.5%15,333McCainRepublican70.7%38,078OtherAll other candidates0.8%442
R+42.2- Lead
- 22,745
- Total
- 53,853
- vs nation
- R+49.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic25.1%11,640BushRepublican74.5%34,602OtherAll other candidates0.4%202
R+49.4- Lead
- 22,962
- Total
- 46,444
- vs nation
- R+47.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic28.5%10,629BushRepublican69.9%26,091NaderGreen1.0%377
R+41.4- Lead
- 15,462
- Total
- 37,307
- vs nation
- R+42.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic36.4%10,832DoleRepublican53.9%16,046PerotReform9.2%2,750
R+17.5- Lead
- 5,214
- Total
- 29,766
- vs nation
- R+26.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+31.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 213,1602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $99,5952024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 14.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 28.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+89.1 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.4 in 2004MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Kaufman County, TX · twin score 95.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.2%100,446 participants ÷ 147,178 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 49.3%–55.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 64,355 | 108,032 | 59.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 60,850 | 114,810 | 53.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 85,941 | 124,070 | 69.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 68,079 | 135,254 | 50.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 100,446 | 147,178 | 68.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
58 precincts · 99,818 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 1038Precinct 1038 | 1,208 | 2,667 | 46 | 3,921 | 30.8% | 68.0% | R+37.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 1006Precinct 1006 | 1,592 | 1,936 | 52 | 3,580 | 44.5% | 54.1% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1057Precinct 1057 | 1,570 | 1,790 | 49 | 3,409 | 46.1% | 52.5% | R+6.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1034Precinct 1034 | 872 | 2,321 | 31 | 3,224 | 27.0% | 72.0% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1043Precinct 1043 | 910 | 2,156 | 29 | 3,095 | 29.4% | 69.7% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1032Precinct 1032 | 458 | 2,574 | 16 | 3,048 | 15.0% | 84.4% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1036Precinct 1036 | 989 | 2,020 | 39 | 3,048 | 32.4% | 66.3% | R+33.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1005Precinct 1005 | 1,022 | 1,781 | 34 | 2,837 | 36.0% | 62.8% | R+26.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1054Precinct 1054 | 1,829 | 702 | 44 | 2,575 | 71.0% | 27.3% | D+43.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1051Precinct 1051 | 1,319 | 1,216 | 30 | 2,565 | 51.4% | 47.4% | D+4.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1055Precinct 1055 | 834 | 1,620 | 43 | 2,497 | 33.4% | 64.9% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1039Precinct 1039 | 629 | 1,834 | 33 | 2,496 | 25.2% | 73.5% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1050Precinct 1050 | 1,465 | 962 | 38 | 2,465 | 59.4% | 39.0% | D+20.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1009Precinct 1009 | 524 | 1,904 | 19 | 2,447 | 21.4% | 77.8% | R+56.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1041Precinct 1041 | 605 | 1,790 | 26 | 2,421 | 25.0% | 73.9% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1056Precinct 1056 | 559 | 1,800 | 32 | 2,391 | 23.4% | 75.3% | R+51.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1012Precinct 1012 | 1,053 | 1,306 | 31 | 2,390 | 44.1% | 54.6% | R+10.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1015Precinct 1015 | 638 | 1,679 | 15 | 2,332 | 27.4% | 72.0% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1022Precinct 1022 | 717 | 1,519 | 28 | 2,264 | 31.7% | 67.1% | R+35.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1027Precinct 1027 | 633 | 1,584 | 28 | 2,245 | 28.2% | 70.6% | R+42.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1003Precinct 1003 | 869 | 1,302 | 36 | 2,207 | 39.4% | 59.0% | R+19.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1028Precinct 1028 | 482 | 1,657 | 19 | 2,158 | 22.3% | 76.8% | R+54.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1033Precinct 1033 | 584 | 1,547 | 22 | 2,153 | 27.1% | 71.9% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1052Precinct 1052 | 1,307 | 780 | 33 | 2,120 | 61.7% | 36.8% | D+24.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1011Precinct 1011 | 649 | 1,221 | 20 | 1,890 | 34.3% | 64.6% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1017Precinct 1017 | 542 | 1,301 | 20 | 1,863 | 29.1% | 69.8% | R+40.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1037Precinct 1037 | 494 | 1,292 | 30 | 1,816 | 27.2% | 71.1% | R+43.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1025Precinct 1025 | 581 | 1,167 | 19 | 1,767 | 32.9% | 66.0% | R+33.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1019Precinct 1019 | 391 | 1,317 | 26 | 1,734 | 22.5% | 76.0% | R+53.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1053Precinct 1053 | 769 | 889 | 36 | 1,694 | 45.4% | 52.5% | R+7.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1026Precinct 1026 | 510 | 1,131 | 25 | 1,666 | 30.6% | 67.9% | R+37.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1048Precinct 1048 | 532 | 1,021 | 21 | 1,574 | 33.8% | 64.9% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1018Precinct 1018 | 726 | 812 | 28 | 1,566 | 46.4% | 51.9% | R+5.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1007Precinct 1007 | 404 | 1,098 | 21 | 1,523 | 26.5% | 72.1% | R+45.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1001Precinct 1001 | 931 | 572 | 15 | 1,518 | 61.3% | 37.7% | D+23.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1024Precinct 1024 | 448 | 1,014 | 15 | 1,477 | 30.3% | 68.7% | R+38.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1014Precinct 1014 | 249 | 1,206 | 9 | 1,464 | 17.0% | 82.4% | R+65.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1010Precinct 1010 | 382 | 989 | 16 | 1,387 | 27.5% | 71.3% | R+43.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1030Precinct 1030 | 304 | 1,069 | 6 | 1,379 | 22.0% | 77.5% | R+55.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1013Precinct 1013 | 404 | 953 | 10 | 1,367 | 29.6% | 69.7% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1058Precinct 1058 | 536 | 762 | 25 | 1,323 | 40.5% | 57.6% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1020Precinct 1020 | 272 | 1,016 | 16 | 1,304 | 20.9% | 77.9% | R+57.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1035Precinct 1035 | 323 | 852 | 13 | 1,188 | 27.2% | 71.7% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1021Precinct 1021 | 197 | 871 | 15 | 1,083 | 18.2% | 80.4% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1016Precinct 1016 | 441 | 414 | 4 | 859 | 51.3% | 48.2% | D+3.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1059Precinct 1059 | 116 | 494 | 4 | 614 | 18.9% | 80.5% | R+61.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1029Precinct 1029 | 91 | 402 | 1 | 494 | 18.4% | 81.4% | R+63.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1031Precinct 1031 | 131 | 355 | 4 | 490 | 26.7% | 72.4% | R+45.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1044Precinct 1044 | 103 | 376 | 9 | 488 | 21.1% | 77.0% | R+55.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1049Precinct 1049 | 115 | 360 | 2 | 477 | 24.1% | 75.5% | R+51.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1046Precinct 1046 | 149 | 249 | 3 | 401 | 37.2% | 62.1% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1040Precinct 1040 | 81 | 310 | 4 | 395 | 20.5% | 78.5% | R+58.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1042Precinct 1042 | 101 | 248 | 3 | 352 | 28.7% | 70.5% | R+41.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1047Precinct 1047 | 44 | 193 | 3 | 240 | 18.3% | 80.4% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1004Precinct 1004 | 67 | 80 | 5 | 152 | 44.1% | 52.6% | R+8.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1002Precinct 1002 | 40 | 106 | 0 | 146 | 27.4% | 72.6% | R+45.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1045Precinct 1045 | 20 | 103 | 2 | 125 | 16.0% | 82.4% | R+66.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1008Precinct 1008 | 39 | 73 | 2 | 114 | 34.2% | 64.0% | R+29.8 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +77.4% |
| 1908 | +75.8% |
| 1912 | +78.3% |
| 1916 | +85.7% |
| 1920 | +55.7% |
| 1924 | +18.9% |
| 1928 | +10.4% |
| 1932 | +85.6% |
| 1936 | +89.1% |
| 1940 | +83.8% |
| 1944 | +77.1% |
| 1948 | +61.8% |
| 1952 | +20.0% |
| 1956 | +18.4% |
| 1960 | +22.8% |
| 1964 | +44.7% |
| 1968 | +13.6% |
| 1972 | −39.1% |
| 1976 | +17.6% |
| 1980 | −4.2% |
| 1984 | −35.4% |
| 1988 | −18.9% |
| 1992 | −12.0% |
| 1996 | −17.5% |
| 2000 | −41.4% |
| 2004 | −49.4% |
| 2008 | −42.2% |
| 2012 | −47.4% |
| 2016 | −44.7% |
| 2020 | −34.0% |
| 2024 | −31.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 36 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 102,217 |
| 2018 | 108,499 |
| 2020 | 120,188 |
| 2022 | 131,057 |
| 2024 | 147,399 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+7,178 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +64,927 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $69,940 in average income, against $89,330 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+2.1 on average — 33 points more Democratic-leaning than Ellis County, TX itself (R+31.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Dallas County, TX3,219D+22.2
- Tarrant County, TX1,508R+5.1
- Denton County, TX275R+13.1
- Johnson County, TX249R+51.4
- Navarro County, TX214R+51.8
- Collin County, TX206R+11.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Dallas County, TX1,509
- Tarrant County, TX854
- Johnson County, TX333
- Navarro County, TX260
- Denton County, TX206
- Collin County, TX170
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +950 |
| 2012 | +495 |
| 2013 | +1,319 |
| 2014 | +2,143 |
| 2015 | +2,941 |
| 2016 | +3,905 |
| 2017 | +4,096 |
| 2018 | +4,619 |
| 2019 | +4,841 |
| 2021 | +8,612 |
| 2022 | +7,667 |
| 2023 | +8,923 |
| 2024 | +7,238 |
| 2025 | +7,178 |
Ellis County has absorbed rapid population growth from the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex while maintaining lopsided Republican margins, with the 2024 presidential race decided by more than 31 points — a pattern that has held even as newcomers reshape its demographics.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 89.1 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 49.4 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.0 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.1 points.
A population of 213,160, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $99,595 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Kaufman County and Montgomery County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Kaufman County
Texas
95.4twin score
12-yr trend2008–2012 trajectory% Latino
Montgomery County
Texas
91.0twin score
12-yr trend2004–2008 trajectorymedian income
Benton County
Arkansas
87.7twin score
12-yr trendmedian incomepopulation scale≠ % Asian
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Ellis County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48139/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Ellis County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Ellis County, Texas voted Republican by 31.1 points (R+31.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 99,557 votes cast, 33,850 went Democratic and 64,763 went Republican.
When did Ellis County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Ellis County, Texas voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Ellis County, Texas?
Ellis County, Texas has a population of 213,160 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Ellis County, Texas?
Median household income in Ellis County, Texas is $99,595 — above the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Ellis County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Ellis County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.