HarrisDemocratic16.6%952TrumpRepublican83.2%4,781SteinIndependent0.2%9
R+66.6- Lead
- 3,829
- Total
- 5,749
- vs nation
- R+65.1
- Turnout
- 61.2%
Akashiccounty
Newton County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 61.2% of 9,687 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic19.2%1,173TrumpRepublican80.1%4,882JorgensenLibertarian0.6%34
R+60.9- Lead
- 3,709
- Total
- 6,094
- vs nation
- R+65.3
- Turnout
- 55.4%
ClintonDemocratic20.9%1,156TrumpRepublican77.5%4,288JohnsonLibertarian1.2%66
R+56.6- Lead
- 3,132
- Total
- 5,534
- vs nation
- R+58.7
- Turnout
- 50.9%
ObamaDemocratic28.6%1,677RomneyRepublican70.1%4,112GrayLibertarian0.8%47
R+41.5- Lead
- 2,435
- Total
- 5,869
- vs nation
- R+45.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic33.3%1,751McCainRepublican65.5%3,446OtherAll other candidates1.2%63
R+32.2- Lead
- 1,695
- Total
- 5,260
- vs nation
- R+39.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.1%2,513BushRepublican55.4%3,159OtherAll other candidates0.5%28
R+11.3- Lead
- 646
- Total
- 5,700
- vs nation
- R+8.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.2%2,503BushRepublican48.6%2,423NaderGreen0.8%38
D+1.6- Lead
- 80
- Total
- 4,990
- vs nation
- D+1.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic57.3%2,554DoleRepublican31.6%1,409PerotReform10.6%474
D+25.7- Lead
- 1,145
- Total
- 4,456
- vs nation
- D+17.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+66.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 12,0932024 5-year
- Median household income
- $42,6182024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 17.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+94.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Red River County, TX · twin score 92.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 61.2%5,925 participants ÷ 9,687 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +9.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -9.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.4%–52.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,604 | 11,015 | 50.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,729 | 11,101 | 42.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 6,094 | 10,992 | 55.4% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,399 | 9,641 | 45.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,925 | 9,687 | 61.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
24 precincts · 5,751 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 48 | 549 | 4 | 601 | 8.0% | 91.3% | R+83.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 67 | 470 | 2 | 539 | 12.4% | 87.2% | R+74.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 165 | 358 | 1 | 524 | 31.5% | 68.3% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 28 | 347 | 1 | 376 | 7.4% | 92.3% | R+84.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 28 | 332 | 0 | 360 | 7.8% | 92.2% | R+84.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 22 | 334 | 1 | 357 | 6.2% | 93.6% | R+87.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 24 | 274 | 0 | 298 | 8.1% | 91.9% | R+83.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 16Precinct 16 | 41 | 227 | 0 | 268 | 15.3% | 84.7% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 21Precinct 21 | 21 | 222 | 2 | 245 | 8.6% | 90.6% | R+82.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 22Precinct 22 | 109 | 134 | 1 | 244 | 44.7% | 54.9% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 35 | 205 | 0 | 240 | 14.6% | 85.4% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8APrecinct 8A | 45 | 150 | 0 | 195 | 23.1% | 76.9% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 12 | 168 | 1 | 181 | 6.6% | 92.8% | R+86.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 18Precinct 18 | 15 | 163 | 1 | 179 | 8.4% | 91.1% | R+82.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 14Precinct 14 | 71 | 96 | 0 | 167 | 42.5% | 57.5% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 19Precinct 19 | 8 | 150 | 0 | 158 | 5.1% | 94.9% | R+89.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 34 | 111 | 0 | 145 | 23.4% | 76.6% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 25 | 118 | 1 | 144 | 17.4% | 81.9% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 15Precinct 15 | 10 | 126 | 1 | 137 | 7.3% | 92.0% | R+84.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 20Precinct 20 | 71 | 25 | 1 | 97 | 73.2% | 25.8% | D+47.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 23Precinct 23 | 4 | 93 | 0 | 97 | 4.1% | 95.9% | R+91.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 17 | 71 | 1 | 89 | 19.1% | 79.8% | R+60.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8BPrecinct 8B | 14 | 46 | 0 | 60 | 23.3% | 76.7% | R+53.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 17Precinct 17 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 50 | 76.0% | 24.0% | D+52.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +17.3% |
| 1908 | +58.1% |
| 1912 | +75.6% |
| 1916 | +82.3% |
| 1920 | +54.2% |
| 1924 | +67.2% |
| 1928 | +17.4% |
| 1932 | +94.2% |
| 1936 | +84.4% |
| 1940 | +83.5% |
| 1944 | +59.1% |
| 1948 | +60.5% |
| 1952 | +28.0% |
| 1956 | +0.3% |
| 1960 | +40.9% |
| 1964 | +49.8% |
| 1968 | +26.0% |
| 1972 | −8.6% |
| 1976 | +54.6% |
| 1980 | +40.4% |
| 1984 | +21.6% |
| 1988 | +37.3% |
| 1992 | +37.0% |
| 1996 | +25.7% |
| 2000 | +1.6% |
| 2004 | −11.3% |
| 2008 | −32.2% |
| 2012 | −41.5% |
| 2016 | −56.6% |
| 2020 | −60.9% |
| 2024 | −66.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 36 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,440 |
| 2018 | 9,290 |
| 2020 | 9,400 |
| 2022 | 9,376 |
| 2024 | 9,486 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+13 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −477 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $52,340 in average income, against $61,315 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+56.3 on average — 10 points more Democratic-leaning than Newton County, TX itself (R+66.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jasper County, TX82R+66.6
- Orange County, TX56R+66.7
- Harris County, TX23D+5.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jasper County, TX88
- Orange County, TX48
- Jefferson County, TX27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +118 |
| 2012 | −130 |
| 2013 | −65 |
| 2014 | −17 |
| 2015 | −135 |
| 2016 | +24 |
| 2017 | −201 |
| 2018 | −127 |
| 2019 | −94 |
| 2021 | +175 |
| 2022 | −47 |
| 2023 | +93 |
| 2024 | −84 |
| 2025 | +13 |
Newton County sits in the forested far east of Texas, where Republican presidential margins have held above 60 points for over a decade, reflecting a rural, majority-white electorate with limited population churn.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 94.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 66.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.6 points.
A population of 12,093, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $42,618 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Red River County and Bledsoe County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Red River County
Texas
92.0twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ % unaffiliated
Bledsoe County
Tennessee
89.1twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Marion County
Texas
88.5twin score
American ancestry12-yr trendmedian income≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Newton County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48351/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Newton County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Newton County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Newton County, Texas voted Republican by 66.6 points (R+66.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,749 votes cast, 952 went Democratic and 4,781 went Republican.
When did Newton County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Newton County, Texas voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Newton County, Texas?
Newton County, Texas has a population of 12,093 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Newton County, Texas?
Median household income in Newton County, Texas is $42,618 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Newton County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Newton County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 7 went Republican.