- Lead
- 1,755
- Total
- 2,504
- vs nation
- R+68.6
- Turnout
- 46.1%
Parmer County, TX
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 46.1% of 5,457 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,647
- Total
- 2,650
- vs nation
- R+66.6
- Turnout
- 49.1%
- Lead
- 1,430
- Total
- 2,466
- vs nation
- R+60.1
- Turnout
- 43.4%
- Lead
- 1,482
- Total
- 2,554
- vs nation
- R+61.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,250
- Total
- 3,713
- vs nation
- R+67.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,986
- Total
- 2,773
- vs nation
- R+69.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,827
- Total
- 2,744
- vs nation
- R+67.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,366
- Total
- 2,888
- vs nation
- R+55.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+70.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 9,7312024 5-year
- Median household income
- $69,7352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 30.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 66.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+76.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+71.6 in 2004MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Hockley County, TX · twin score 96.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 46.1%2,518 participants ÷ 5,457 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.0 ptsPersistently low turnout
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 29.2%–34.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,466 | 5,688 | 43.4% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,067 | 5,682 | 36.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 2,679 | 5,458 | 49.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 1,773 | 5,524 | 32.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 2,518 | 5,457 | 46.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
7 precincts · 2,504 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 301Precinct 301 | 75 | 730 | 3 | 808 | 9.3% | 90.3% | R+81.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 101Precinct 101 | 132 | 584 | 6 | 722 | 18.3% | 80.9% | R+62.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 201Precinct 201 | 86 | 264 | 3 | 353 | 24.4% | 74.8% | R+50.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 401Precinct 401 | 10 | 196 | 0 | 206 | 4.9% | 95.1% | R+90.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 202Precinct 202 | 7 | 187 | 0 | 194 | 3.6% | 96.4% | R+92.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 402Precinct 402 | 54 | 126 | 1 | 181 | 29.8% | 69.6% | R+39.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 303Precinct 303 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 40 | 10.0% | 90.0% | R+80.0 |
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | +49.2% |
| 1912 | +56.1% |
| 1916 | +47.4% |
| 1920 | +14.4% |
| 1924 | +36.1% |
| 1928 | −32.3% |
| 1932 | +76.3% |
| 1936 | +74.3% |
| 1940 | +48.2% |
| 1944 | +28.5% |
| 1948 | +57.1% |
| 1952 | −38.8% |
| 1956 | +13.9% |
| 1960 | −21.0% |
| 1964 | +12.2% |
| 1968 | −22.8% |
| 1972 | −64.1% |
| 1976 | +12.5% |
| 1980 | −56.9% |
| 1984 | −63.1% |
| 1988 | −45.7% |
| 1992 | −39.3% |
| 1996 | −47.3% |
| 2000 | −66.6% |
| 2004 | −71.6% |
| 2008 | −60.6% |
| 2012 | −58.0% |
| 2016 | −58.0% |
| 2020 | −62.2% |
| 2024 | −70.1% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 4,461 |
| 2018 | 4,363 |
| 2020 | 4,537 |
| 2022 | 4,452 |
| 2024 | 4,549 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−96 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −2,555 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $42,302 in average income, against $67,709 for residents who stayed — 38% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+51.4 on average — 19 points more Democratic-leaning than Parmer County, TX itself (R+70.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Curry County, NM24R+42.6
- Deaf Smith County, TX23R+51.7
- Bailey County, TX21R+61.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Curry County, NM42
- Randall County, TX27
- Deaf Smith County, TX25
- Lubbock County, TX21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −99 |
| 2012 | −226 |
| 2013 | −319 |
| 2014 | −186 |
| 2015 | −269 |
| 2016 | −159 |
| 2017 | −173 |
| 2018 | −81 |
| 2019 | −219 |
| 2021 | −126 |
| 2022 | −244 |
| 2023 | −143 |
| 2024 | −215 |
| 2025 | −96 |
Parmer County's flat, agricultural High Plains landscape anchors an economy built on feedlots, dairy, and crop farming, and its small, predominantly rural population has delivered Republican presidential margins above 70 points in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 71.6 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 70.1 points.
A population of 9,731, a 30% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,735 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hockley County and Moore County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Parmer County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48369/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.