HarrisDemocratic27.0%28,041TrumpRepublican72.1%74,862OliverLibertarian0.5%559
R+45.1- Lead
- 46,821
- Total
- 103,879
- vs nation
- R+43.6
- Turnout
- 60.9%
Akashiccounty
Smith County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 60.9% of 171,788 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic29.5%29,615TrumpRepublican68.9%69,080JorgensenLibertarian1.1%1,126
R+39.3- Lead
- 39,465
- Total
- 100,334
- vs nation
- R+43.8
- Turnout
- 61.6%
ClintonDemocratic26.3%22,300TrumpRepublican69.5%58,930JohnsonLibertarian2.4%2,076
R+43.2- Lead
- 36,630
- Total
- 84,768
- vs nation
- R+45.3
- Turnout
- 55.5%
ObamaDemocratic27.0%21,456RomneyRepublican72.0%57,331GrayLibertarian0.8%669
R+45.1- Lead
- 35,875
- Total
- 79,601
- vs nation
- R+48.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.8%23,726McCainRepublican69.4%55,187OtherAll other candidates0.8%648
R+39.5- Lead
- 31,461
- Total
- 79,561
- vs nation
- R+46.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic27.1%19,970BushRepublican72.5%53,392OtherAll other candidates0.4%302
R+45.4- Lead
- 33,422
- Total
- 73,664
- vs nation
- R+42.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic27.2%16,470BushRepublican71.5%43,320NaderGreen0.9%548
R+44.3- Lead
- 26,850
- Total
- 60,624
- vs nation
- R+44.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic34.0%18,265DoleRepublican60.0%32,171PerotReform5.5%2,933
R+25.9- Lead
- 13,906
- Total
- 53,643
- vs nation
- R+34.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+45.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 241,7402024 5-year
- Median household income
- $74,1922024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 57.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+82.9 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Taylor County, TX · twin score 89.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 60.9%104,547 participants ÷ 171,788 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 45.1%–49.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 85,230 | 153,628 | 55.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 77,734 | 158,294 | 49.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 100,075 | 162,368 | 61.6% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 76,507 | 166,896 | 45.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 104,547 | 171,788 | 60.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
75 precincts · 104,186 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 71Precinct 71 | 733 | 2,691 | 50 | 3,474 | 21.1% | 77.5% | R+56.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 42Precinct 42 | 603 | 2,717 | 31 | 3,351 | 18.0% | 81.1% | R+63.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 40Precinct 40 | 592 | 2,601 | 25 | 3,218 | 18.4% | 80.8% | R+62.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 19Precinct 19 | 550 | 2,625 | 39 | 3,214 | 17.1% | 81.7% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 15Precinct 15 | 480 | 2,607 | 44 | 3,131 | 15.3% | 83.3% | R+67.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 58Precinct 58 | 804 | 2,254 | 45 | 3,103 | 25.9% | 72.6% | R+46.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 79Precinct 79 | 694 | 2,351 | 33 | 3,078 | 22.5% | 76.4% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 30Precinct 30 | 531 | 2,390 | 40 | 2,961 | 17.9% | 80.7% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 28Precinct 28 | 553 | 2,360 | 36 | 2,949 | 18.8% | 80.0% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 44Precinct 44 | 918 | 1,686 | 31 | 2,635 | 34.8% | 64.0% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 59Precinct 59 | 633 | 1,954 | 46 | 2,633 | 24.0% | 74.2% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 31Precinct 31 | 396 | 2,183 | 19 | 2,598 | 15.2% | 84.0% | R+68.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 75Precinct 75 | 360 | 2,139 | 31 | 2,530 | 14.2% | 84.5% | R+70.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 56Precinct 56 | 696 | 1,712 | 50 | 2,458 | 28.3% | 69.7% | R+41.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 51Precinct 51 | 741 | 1,562 | 36 | 2,339 | 31.7% | 66.8% | R+35.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 41Precinct 41 | 295 | 1,886 | 17 | 2,198 | 13.4% | 85.8% | R+72.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 54Precinct 54 | 651 | 1,519 | 27 | 2,197 | 29.6% | 69.1% | R+39.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 26Precinct 26 | 338 | 1,810 | 19 | 2,167 | 15.6% | 83.5% | R+67.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 52Precinct 52 | 252 | 1,742 | 18 | 2,012 | 12.5% | 86.6% | R+74.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 211 | 1,665 | 20 | 1,896 | 11.1% | 87.8% | R+76.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 512 | 1,230 | 33 | 1,775 | 28.8% | 69.3% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 868 | 894 | 11 | 1,773 | 49.0% | 50.4% | R+1.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 38Precinct 38 | 527 | 1,147 | 19 | 1,693 | 31.1% | 67.7% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 45Precinct 45 | 204 | 1,465 | 15 | 1,684 | 12.1% | 87.0% | R+74.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 35Precinct 35 | 843 | 816 | 18 | 1,677 | 50.3% | 48.7% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 64Precinct 64 | 294 | 1,361 | 15 | 1,670 | 17.6% | 81.5% | R+63.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 50Precinct 50 | 435 | 1,160 | 35 | 1,630 | 26.7% | 71.2% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 24Precinct 24 | 267 | 1,333 | 24 | 1,624 | 16.4% | 82.1% | R+65.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 25Precinct 25 | 406 | 1,146 | 30 | 1,582 | 25.7% | 72.4% | R+46.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 23Precinct 23 | 504 | 1,023 | 29 | 1,556 | 32.4% | 65.7% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 36Precinct 36 | 1,007 | 472 | 20 | 1,499 | 67.2% | 31.5% | D+35.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 37Precinct 37 | 271 | 1,192 | 11 | 1,474 | 18.4% | 80.9% | R+62.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 61Precinct 61 | 617 | 832 | 21 | 1,470 | 42.0% | 56.6% | R+14.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 286 | 1,073 | 15 | 1,374 | 20.8% | 78.1% | R+57.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 62Precinct 62 | 199 | 1,151 | 10 | 1,360 | 14.6% | 84.6% | R+70.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 29Precinct 29 | 254 | 1,094 | 8 | 1,356 | 18.7% | 80.7% | R+61.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 14Precinct 14 | 368 | 944 | 20 | 1,332 | 27.6% | 70.9% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 27Precinct 27 | 431 | 821 | 16 | 1,268 | 34.0% | 64.7% | R+30.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 49Precinct 49 | 128 | 1,041 | 12 | 1,181 | 10.8% | 88.1% | R+77.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 21Precinct 21 | 298 | 829 | 26 | 1,153 | 25.8% | 71.9% | R+46.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8Precinct 8 | 198 | 931 | 8 | 1,137 | 17.4% | 81.9% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 17Precinct 17 | 127 | 990 | 12 | 1,129 | 11.2% | 87.7% | R+76.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 55Precinct 55 | 473 | 621 | 14 | 1,108 | 42.7% | 56.0% | R+13.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 43Precinct 43 | 311 | 621 | 18 | 950 | 32.7% | 65.4% | R+32.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 390 | 530 | 15 | 935 | 41.7% | 56.7% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 618 | 291 | 6 | 915 | 67.5% | 31.8% | D+35.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 33Precinct 33 | 202 | 663 | 9 | 874 | 23.1% | 75.9% | R+52.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 85Precinct 85 | 113 | 738 | 7 | 858 | 13.2% | 86.0% | R+72.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 46Precinct 46 | 210 | 596 | 5 | 811 | 25.9% | 73.5% | R+47.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 683 | 62 | 18 | 763 | 89.5% | 8.1% | D+81.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 598 | 140 | 14 | 752 | 79.5% | 18.6% | D+60.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 34Precinct 34 | 525 | 203 | 8 | 736 | 71.3% | 27.6% | D+43.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 106 | 619 | 6 | 731 | 14.5% | 84.7% | R+70.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 74Precinct 74 | 174 | 513 | 9 | 696 | 25.0% | 73.7% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 16Precinct 16 | 522 | 148 | 9 | 679 | 76.9% | 21.8% | D+55.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 18Precinct 18 | 494 | 105 | 3 | 602 | 82.1% | 17.4% | D+64.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 57Precinct 57 | 163 | 390 | 12 | 565 | 28.8% | 69.0% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 48Precinct 48 | 217 | 320 | 6 | 543 | 40.0% | 58.9% | R+19.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 32Precinct 32 | 167 | 358 | 10 | 535 | 31.2% | 66.9% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 63Precinct 63 | 88 | 388 | 8 | 484 | 18.2% | 80.2% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 77Precinct 77 | 157 | 282 | 3 | 442 | 35.5% | 63.8% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 66Precinct 66 | 179 | 254 | 3 | 436 | 41.1% | 58.3% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 73Precinct 73 | 160 | 224 | 7 | 391 | 40.9% | 57.3% | R+16.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 76Precinct 76 | 226 | 109 | 4 | 339 | 66.7% | 32.2% | D+34.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 47Precinct 47 | 107 | 216 | 3 | 326 | 32.8% | 66.3% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 60Precinct 60 | 124 | 192 | 2 | 318 | 39.0% | 60.4% | R+21.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 200 | 110 | 3 | 313 | 63.9% | 35.1% | D+28.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 20Precinct 20 | 162 | 134 | 5 | 301 | 53.8% | 44.5% | D+9.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 53Precinct 53 | 53 | 236 | 3 | 292 | 18.2% | 80.8% | R+62.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 39Precinct 39 | 139 | 83 | 3 | 225 | 61.8% | 36.9% | D+24.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 108 | 82 | 0 | 190 | 56.8% | 43.2% | D+13.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 22Precinct 22 | 96 | 81 | 2 | 179 | 53.6% | 45.3% | D+8.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 104 | 69 | 1 | 174 | 59.8% | 39.7% | D+20.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 81Precinct 81 | 83 | 66 | 2 | 151 | 55.0% | 43.7% | D+11.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 82Precinct 82 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 33 | 42.4% | 57.6% | R+15.2 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +30.9% |
| 1908 | +39.0% |
| 1912 | +44.7% |
| 1916 | +47.4% |
| 1920 | +48.3% |
| 1924 | +59.3% |
| 1928 | −19.7% |
| 1932 | +81.4% |
| 1936 | +82.9% |
| 1940 | +71.6% |
| 1944 | +60.1% |
| 1948 | +29.1% |
| 1952 | −12.9% |
| 1956 | −30.8% |
| 1960 | −17.0% |
| 1964 | −1.9% |
| 1968 | −10.4% |
| 1972 | −49.1% |
| 1976 | −13.7% |
| 1980 | −30.7% |
| 1984 | −45.5% |
| 1988 | −29.7% |
| 1992 | −17.4% |
| 1996 | −25.9% |
| 2000 | −44.3% |
| 2004 | −45.4% |
| 2008 | −39.5% |
| 2012 | −45.1% |
| 2016 | −43.2% |
| 2020 | −39.3% |
| 2024 | −45.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 135,567 |
| 2018 | 135,935 |
| 2020 | 146,149 |
| 2022 | 153,936 |
| 2024 | 162,009 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,112 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +25,305 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $67,572 in average income, against $90,967 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+32.4 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Smith County, TX itself (R+45.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Gregg County, TX386R+42.2
- Dallas County, TX382D+22.2
- Henderson County, TX358R+63.5
- Cherokee County, TX352R+62.7
- Van Zandt County, TX262R+74.8
- Tarrant County, TX253R+5.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Cherokee County, TX425
- Dallas County, TX421
- Henderson County, TX340
- Gregg County, TX328
- Tarrant County, TX253
- Rusk County, TX209
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +1,031 |
| 2012 | +808 |
| 2013 | +357 |
| 2014 | +1,649 |
| 2015 | +1,404 |
| 2016 | +1,474 |
| 2017 | +822 |
| 2018 | +1,660 |
| 2019 | +2,120 |
| 2021 | +3,079 |
| 2022 | +4,261 |
| 2023 | +2,521 |
| 2024 | +2,007 |
| 2025 | +2,112 |
Home to Tyler, Smith County has delivered Republican presidential margins above 40 points in recent cycles, with a population mix of medical-sector workers, retirees, and rural residents that has kept the county well to the right of statewide averages.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 82.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 49.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.1 points.
A population of 241,740, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,192 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Taylor County and Midland County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Taylor County
Texas
89.4twin score
2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ American ancestry
Midland County
Texas
86.5twin score
12-yr trend2000–2004 trajectorypopulation scale≠ % Latino
Gregg County
Texas
86.5twin score
2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Smith County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48423/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Smith County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Smith County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Smith County, Texas voted Republican by 45.1 points (R+45.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 103,879 votes cast, 28,041 went Democratic and 74,862 went Republican.
When did Smith County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Smith County, Texas voted Democratic was 1948.
How many people live in Smith County, Texas?
Smith County, Texas has a population of 241,740 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Smith County, Texas?
Median household income in Smith County, Texas is $74,192 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Smith County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Smith County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.