- Lead
- 2,400
- Total
- 3,987
- vs nation
- R+58.7
- Turnout
- 72.7%
Goliad County, TX
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 72.7% of 5,501 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,208
- Total
- 3,995
- vs nation
- R+59.7
- Turnout
- 69.0%
- Lead
- 1,647
- Total
- 3,708
- vs nation
- R+46.5
- Turnout
- 65.8%
- Lead
- 1,167
- Total
- 3,458
- vs nation
- R+37.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 969
- Total
- 3,655
- vs nation
- R+33.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,048
- Total
- 3,501
- vs nation
- R+27.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 875
- Total
- 3,392
- vs nation
- R+26.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 200
- Total
- 2,635
- vs nation
- R+16.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+60.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 7,1412024 5-year
- Median household income
- $59,3592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 32.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+79.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Crockett County, TX · twin score 80.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 72.7%3,997 participants ÷ 5,501 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +4.9 ptsHigh-turnout, durable
- Drop-off versus state
- -14.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 64.0%–67.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,778 | 5,743 | 65.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 3,087 | 5,785 | 53.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,988 | 5,783 | 69.0% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 3,434 | 5,359 | 64.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,997 | 5,501 | 72.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
9 precincts · 3,990 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 21Precinct 21 | 236 | 448 | 8 | 692 | 34.1% | 64.7% | R+30.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 193 | 412 | 4 | 609 | 31.7% | 67.7% | R+36.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 42Precinct 42 | 58 | 454 | 3 | 515 | 11.3% | 88.2% | R+76.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 32Precinct 32 | 53 | 452 | 5 | 510 | 10.4% | 88.6% | R+78.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 31Precinct 31 | 84 | 369 | 7 | 460 | 18.3% | 80.2% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 35 | 327 | 3 | 365 | 9.6% | 89.6% | R+80.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 43Precinct 43 | 38 | 304 | 3 | 345 | 11.0% | 88.1% | R+77.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 41Precinct 41 | 46 | 262 | 0 | 308 | 14.9% | 85.1% | R+70.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 22Precinct 22 | 35 | 150 | 1 | 186 | 18.8% | 80.6% | R+61.8 |
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +14.9% |
| 1908 | −22.4% |
| 1912 | +7.0% |
| 1916 | +4.7% |
| 1920 | −5.6% |
| 1924 | +22.1% |
| 1928 | −8.4% |
| 1932 | +79.9% |
| 1936 | +57.0% |
| 1940 | +19.8% |
| 1944 | +2.4% |
| 1948 | +0.4% |
| 1952 | −40.4% |
| 1956 | −45.2% |
| 1960 | −2.1% |
| 1964 | +28.6% |
| 1968 | −1.1% |
| 1972 | −37.3% |
| 1976 | +1.7% |
| 1980 | −3.9% |
| 1984 | −29.6% |
| 1988 | −2.5% |
| 1992 | −5.9% |
| 1996 | −7.6% |
| 2000 | −25.8% |
| 2004 | −29.9% |
| 2008 | −26.5% |
| 2012 | −33.7% |
| 2016 | −44.4% |
| 2020 | −55.3% |
| 2024 | −60.2% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 5,531 |
| 2018 | 5,263 |
| 2020 | 5,766 |
| 2022 | 5,771 |
| 2024 | 5,833 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+32 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +843 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,889 in average income, against $85,062 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+42.5 on average — 18 points more Democratic-leaning than Goliad County, TX itself (R+60.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Victoria County, TX59R+42.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Victoria County, TX62
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −9 |
| 2012 | +143 |
| 2013 | +108 |
| 2014 | +92 |
| 2015 | +19 |
| 2016 | +9 |
| 2017 | +48 |
| 2018 | +44 |
| 2019 | +61 |
| 2021 | +155 |
| 2022 | +28 |
| 2023 | +52 |
| 2024 | +61 |
| 2025 | +32 |
Goliad County, one of Texas's oldest, sits along the San Antonio River in the Coastal Bend and has shifted from a historically Democratic ranching community to one of the state's most lopsided Republican presidential performers over the past 20 years.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 79.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 60.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 60.2 points.
A population of 7,141, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,359 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Crockett County and Crowley County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Goliad County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48175/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.