Texas 15th Congressional District (TX) — Elections 1876–2024

Texas 15th Congressional District, Texas: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+16%. Democratic peak: D+67 in 1932.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+16MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 990,9582024 5-year
Median household income: $62,0012024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 36.3%2024 5-year
Black: 2.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 79.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+67 in 1932MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+16 in 1972MIT Election Lab

DE LA CRUZ, MonicaCongress 119 · Republican

−1 liberal

+1 conservative

Predecessors: GONZALEZ, Vicente, Jr. (2021–2023), GONZALEZ, Vicente, Jr. (2019–2021), GONZALEZ, Vicente, Jr. (2017–2019), HINOJOSA, Rubén (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2024 results by constituent county

8 counties · 1 D · 7 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−16.1%	122,725	170,494	295,980
2020	R	−1.2%	142,323	145,684	291,287
2016	D	+13.6%	125,858	94,599	229,622
2012	D	+13.4%	107,059	81,579	190,769
2008	D	+13.1%	102,327	78,482	182,078
2004	R	−7.8%	74,169	86,690	161,535
2000	D	+4.5%	72,186	65,907	140,222
1996	D	+22.3%	69,215	42,699	118,783
1992	D	+18.1%	64,200	41,779	124,095
1988	D	+17.7%	68,942	48,120	117,648
1984	R	−0.5%	56,072	56,590	112,967
1980	D	+6.5%	48,423	42,397	92,714
1976	D	+27.2%	52,452	29,922	82,882
1972	R	−16.0%	28,054	38,789	67,059
1968	D	+17.6%	32,758	22,059	60,667
1964	D	+40.4%	38,695	16,395	55,185
1960	D	+19.1%	31,040	21,058	52,232
1956	R	−12.0%	17,747	22,619	40,694
1952	R	−14.6%	19,281	25,873	45,224
1948	D	+30.2%	19,637	10,280	30,953
1944	D	+24.7%	14,647	8,480	24,929
1940	D	+30.2%	16,181	8,666	24,892
1936	D	+52.1%	15,385	4,734	20,440
1932	D	+67.0%	18,810	3,666	22,610
1928	D	+10.1%	8,748	7,143	15,910
1924	D	+32.4%	8,430	3,759	14,407
1920	D	+4.4%	4,449	4,013	9,930
1916	D	+26.3%	4,347	2,501	7,027
1912	D	+49.3%	4,299	1,093	6,498
1908	—	No data	—	—	—
1904	—	No data	—	—	—
1900	—	No data	—	—	—
1896	—	No data	—	—	—
1892	—	No data	—	—	—
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year	Won	D %	R %	Total
2024	R	44.6%	53.1%	11,291,854
2020	R	43.9%	53.5%	11,144,040
2018	R	48.3%	50.9%	8,371,655
2014	R	34.4%	61.6%	4,648,358
2012	R	40.6%	56.5%	7,864,822
2008	R	42.8%	54.8%	7,912,075
2006	R	36.0%	61.7%	4,314,663
2002	R	43.3%	55.3%	4,514,012
2000	R	32.3%	65.1%	6,267,964
1996	R	43.9%	54.8%	5,527,441
1994	R	38.3%	60.8%	4,279,940
1990	R	37.4%	60.2%	3,822,157
1988	D	59.2%	40.0%	5,323,606
1984	R	41.4%	58.5%	5,314,178
1982	D	58.6%	40.5%	3,103,167
1978	R	49.3%	49.8%	2,312,540
1976	D	56.8%	42.2%	3,874,230

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

5.1%

English

2.8%

American

2.7%

Irish

2.6%

Polish

0.7%

Italian

0.5%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 32.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.5%

85+

0.8%

1.9%

75–84

2.3%

3.4%

65–74

4.0%

4.6%

55–64

5.0%

5.8%

45–54

6.0%

6.5%

35–44

6.3%

6.9%

25–34

6.6%

5.3%

18–24

5.0%

11.1%

5–17

10.7%

3.7%

3.5%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$62,001

Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.

Congressional District 15$62,001

Texas$78,476

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

23.0%

Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.

Children under 1831.1%

Working age (18–64)19.3%

Seniors (65+)20.9%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

34.2%

speak English only

Spanish64.3%

Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%

Other Indo-European0.5%

Other languages0.1%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

40.3%

Other Christian

8.8%

Baptist

4.6%

Pentecostal & Holiness

1.0%

Methodist

1.0%

Mainline Protestant

0.9%

Non-Christian

0.2%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 43.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

TX-15 stretches through the Rio Grande Valley's northern edge, where a significant rightward shift among Hispanic voters over recent cycles has tightened what were once reliably wide Democratic margins, making the district a closely watched bellwether for Latino political realignment.

The Democratic margin in Texas 15th Congressional District has rarely exceeded sixty-seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixteen points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by sixteen points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 36% non-Hispanic-white share, a 23% poverty rate, and a median household income of $62,001 — all within the broad national range.

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Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Congressional District 15, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4815/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, Texas vote in 2024?

In 2024, Congressional District 15, Texas voted Republican by 16.1 points (R+16), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 295,980 votes cast, 122,725 went Democratic and 170,494 went Republican.

What is Congressional District 15, Texas's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Congressional District 15, Texas as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 22 times, Republican 7 times, and other 0 times.

When did Congressional District 15, Texas last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 15, Texas voted Democratic was 2016.

How many people live in Congressional District 15, Texas?

Congressional District 15, Texas has a population of 990,958 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, Texas?

Median household income in Congressional District 15, Texas is $62,001 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.

What is the political history of Congressional District 15, Texas?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 7 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Texas 15th Congressional District delivered R+16 in 2024.

Key facts

U.S. Senate

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions