Texas 15th Congressional District
Akashic| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2008 | +13.4% |
| 2012 | +14.7% |
| 2016 | +13.5% |
| 2020 | −2.4% |
| 2024 | −17.9% |
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
| Year | District | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | R | 42.9%95,965 | 57.1%127,804 | 223,769 |
| 2022 | 15 | R | 44.8%68,097 | 53.3%80,978 | 151,889 |
| 2020 | 15 | D | 50.5%115,605 | 47.6%109,017 | 228,917 |
| 2018 | 15 | D | 59.7%98,333 | 38.8%63,862 | 164,802 |
| 2016 | 15 | D | 57.3%101,712 | 37.7%66,877 | 177,479 |
| 2014 | 15 | D | 54.0%48,708 | 43.3%39,016 | 90,184 |
| 2012 | 15 | D | 60.9%89,296 | 36.9%54,056 | 146,661 |
| 2010 | 15 | D | 55.7%53,546 | 41.6%39,964 | 96,080 |
| 2008 | 15 | D | 65.7%107,578 | 31.9%52,303 | 163,708 |
| 2004 | 15 | D | 57.8%96,089 | 40.8%67,917 | 166,358 |
| 2002 | 15 | D | 100.0%66,311 | 0.0%0 | 66,311 |
| 2000 | 15 | D | 88.5%106,570 | 0.0%0 | 120,448 |
| 1998 | 15 | D | 58.4%47,957 | 41.6%34,221 | 82,178 |
| 1996 | 15 | D | 62.3%86,347 | 36.7%50,914 | 138,594 |
| 1994 | 15 | D | 59.0%61,527 | 39.4%41,119 | 104,366 |
| 1992 | 15 | D | 60.4%86,351 | 39.6%56,549 | 142,900 |
| 1990 | 15 | D | 100.0%72,461 | 0.0%0 | 72,461 |
| 1988 | 15 | D | 93.9%93,672 | 0.0%0 | 99,805 |
| 1986 | 15 | D | 100.0%70,777 | 0.0%0 | 70,777 |
| 1984 | 15 | D | 100.0%104,863 | 0.0%0 | 104,863 |
| 1982 | 15 | D | 95.7%76,544 | 0.0%0 | 80,002 |
| 1980 | 15 | D | 70.0%105,325 | 30.0%45,090 | 150,415 |
| 1978 | 15 | D | 66.2%54,560 | 33.8%27,853 | 82,413 |
| 1976 | 15 | D | 74.4%102,837 | 25.6%35,446 | 138,283 |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 44.6%5,031,249 | 53.1%5,990,741 | 11,291,854 |
| 2020 | R | 43.9%4,888,764 | 53.5%5,962,983 | 11,144,040 |
| 2018 | R | 48.3%4,045,632 | 50.9%4,260,553 | 8,371,655 |
| 2014 | R | 34.4%1,597,387 | 61.6%2,861,531 | 4,647,370 |
| 2012 | R | 40.6%3,194,927 | 56.5%4,440,137 | 7,864,822 |
| 2008 | R | 42.8%3,389,365 | 54.8%4,337,469 | 7,912,075 |
| 2006 | R | 36.0%1,555,202 | 61.7%2,661,789 | 4,314,663 |
| 2002 | R | 43.3%1,955,758 | 55.3%2,496,243 | 4,512,590 |
| 2000 | R | 32.3%2,025,024 | 65.1%4,078,954 | 6,267,964 |
| 1996 | R | 43.9%2,428,776 | 54.8%3,027,680 | 5,527,441 |
| 1994 | R | 38.3%1,639,615 | 60.8%2,604,218 | 4,279,940 |
| 1990 | R | 37.4%1,429,986 | 60.2%2,302,357 | 3,821,432 |
| 1988 | D | 59.2%3,149,806 | 40.0%2,129,228 | 5,323,023 |
| 1984 | R | 41.4%2,202,557 | 58.5%3,111,348 | 5,314,178 |
| 1982 | D | 58.6%1,818,223 | 40.5%1,256,759 | 3,103,040 |
| 1978 | R | 49.3%1,139,149 | 49.8%1,151,376 | 2,312,540 |
| 1976 | D | 56.8%2,199,956 | 42.2%1,636,370 | 3,874,230 |
TX-15 stretches through the Rio Grande Valley's northern edge, where a significant rightward shift among Hispanic voters over recent cycles has tightened what were once reliably wide Democratic margins, making the district a closely watched bellwether for Latino political realignment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 14.7 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 17.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 15.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 17.9 points.
A population of 767,250, a 42% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,077 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 34 and Congressional District 28.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Texas 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4815/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.