- Lead
- 40,787
- Total
- 227,970
- vs nation
- R+16.4
Texas 15th Congressional District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 5,455
- Total
- 227,457
- vs nation
- R+6.9
- Lead
- 25,250
- Total
- 186,327
- vs nation
- D+11.5
- Lead
- 22,138
- Total
- 157,035
- vs nation
- D+10.2
- Lead
- 20,406
- Total
- 154,421
- vs nation
- D+5.9
- Lead
- 9,259
- Total
- 143,516
- vs nation
- R+4.0
- Lead
- 5,843
- Total
- 129,457
- vs nation
- D+4.0
- Lead
- 25,026
- Total
- 116,018
- vs nation
- D+13.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+17.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 767,2502024 5-year
- Population density
- 82 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 9,318 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $59,0772024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 15.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 81.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+72.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+18.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 34, TX · twin score 95.6
presidential history
Party record book
Texas 15th Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
86.0%
25,441 votes · D+72.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 77.2%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
59.0%
42,532 votes · R+18.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 58.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
109,893votes
48.3% of the vote · R+2.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 102,479 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
133,410votes
58.5% of the vote · R+17.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 115,348 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+65.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+40.2 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +57.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+16.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+17.9 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +6.9 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
TX-15 stretches through the Rio Grande Valley's northern edge, where a significant rightward shift among Hispanic voters over recent cycles has tightened what were once reliably wide Democratic margins, making the district a closely watched bellwether for Latino political realignment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 72.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 18.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 15.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 17.9 points.
A population of 767,250, a 15% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,077 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 34 and Congressional District 28.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Texas 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4815/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.