| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 919 | 2,134 | 3,075 | |
| 2020 | R | 1,108 | 2,210 | 3,366 | |
| 2016 | R | 1,034 | 1,830 | 2,948 | |
| 2012 | R | 998 | 1,663 | 2,677 | |
| 2008 | R | 1,382 | 1,855 | 3,261 | |
| 2004 | R | 1,232 | 2,212 | 3,455 | |
| 2000 | R | 1,172 | 1,721 | 2,921 | |
| 1996 | D | 1,635 | 1,376 | 3,249 | |
| 1992 | D | 1,531 | 1,469 | 3,732 | |
| 1988 | R | 1,831 | 1,883 | 3,724 | |
| 1984 | R | 1,559 | 2,421 | 3,988 | |
| 1980 | D | 2,224 | 1,944 | 4,251 | |
| 1976 | D | 2,218 | 1,537 | 3,765 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,060 | 1,937 | 3,000 | |
| 1968 | D | 1,699 | 1,114 | 3,299 | |
| 1964 | D | 2,319 | 772 | 3,091 | |
| 1960 | D | 1,777 | 1,062 | 2,842 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,188 | 1,355 | 2,552 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,401 | 1,427 | 2,832 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,637 | 489 | 2,199 | |
| 1944 | D | 991 | 376 | 1,468 | |
| 1940 | D | 1,487 | 458 | 1,952 | |
| 1936 | D | 1,058 | 242 | 1,305 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,201 | 172 | 1,394 | |
| 1928 | D | 671 | 383 | 1,054 | |
| 1924 | D | 585 | 256 | 934 | |
| 1920 | R | 227 | 360 | 645 | |
| 1916 | D | 408 | 232 | 696 | |
| 1912 | D | 204 | 115 | 398 | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Refugio County's economy revolves around cattle ranching and oil production, and its roughly 7,800 residents have delivered Republican presidential margins above 35 points in each of the last three cycles, a pattern consistent with rural South Texas energy corridors.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin in Refugio County peaked at seventy-four points in 1932; it narrowed steadily over the late twentieth century. The 2000 election delivered the county to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by a margin of nineteen points. By 2024, the margin had settled into deep Republican territory.
The economic and demographic context is severe. Refugio County's median household income of $60,181 is among the lowest of any county in the United States; 15% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Karnes County and San Patricio County.