HarrisDemocratic34.7%29,573TrumpRepublican64.2%54,691OliverLibertarian0.6%527
R+29.5- Lead
- 25,118
- Total
- 85,136
- vs nation
- R+28.0
- Turnout
- 64.8%
Akashiccounty
Guadalupe County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 64.8% of 132,484 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic37.0%28,805TrumpRepublican61.2%47,553JorgensenLibertarian1.3%1,023
R+24.1- Lead
- 18,748
- Total
- 77,758
- vs nation
- R+28.6
- Turnout
- 72.8%
ClintonDemocratic31.6%18,391TrumpRepublican63.0%36,632JohnsonLibertarian3.5%2,022
R+31.4- Lead
- 18,241
- Total
- 58,123
- vs nation
- R+33.5
- Turnout
- 56.7%
ObamaDemocratic31.7%15,744RomneyRepublican66.7%33,117GrayLibertarian1.1%535
R+35.0- Lead
- 17,373
- Total
- 49,626
- vs nation
- R+38.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic34.0%16,156McCainRepublican65.0%30,869OtherAll other candidates0.9%436
R+31.0- Lead
- 14,713
- Total
- 47,461
- vs nation
- R+38.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic26.6%10,290BushRepublican72.8%28,208OtherAll other candidates0.7%254
R+46.2- Lead
- 17,918
- Total
- 38,752
- vs nation
- R+43.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic27.2%8,311BushRepublican70.3%21,499NaderGreen1.8%545
R+43.1- Lead
- 13,188
- Total
- 30,567
- vs nation
- R+43.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic33.1%8,079DoleRepublican58.4%14,254PerotReform7.4%1,811
R+25.3- Lead
- 6,175
- Total
- 24,403
- vs nation
- R+33.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+29.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 183,6422024 5-year
- Median household income
- $92,3752024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 47.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 39.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+68.7 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.8 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lubbock County, TX · twin score 85.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 64.8%85,876 participants ÷ 132,484 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +27.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +8.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.8%–47.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 58,520 | 103,203 | 56.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 55,032 | 110,115 | 50.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 85,303 | 117,132 | 72.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 57,420 | 125,392 | 45.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 85,876 | 132,484 | 64.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
76 precincts · 85,350 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 208Precinct 208 | 1,322 | 3,401 | 58 | 4,781 | 27.7% | 71.1% | R+43.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 415Precinct 415 | 1,835 | 2,221 | 54 | 4,110 | 44.6% | 54.0% | R+9.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 307Precinct 307 | 1,445 | 1,815 | 52 | 3,312 | 43.6% | 54.8% | R+11.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 305Precinct 305 | 1,334 | 1,869 | 45 | 3,248 | 41.1% | 57.5% | R+16.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 404Precinct 404 | 1,322 | 1,733 | 47 | 3,102 | 42.6% | 55.9% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 414Precinct 414 | 1,330 | 1,725 | 42 | 3,097 | 42.9% | 55.7% | R+12.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 306Precinct 306 | 1,174 | 1,698 | 48 | 2,920 | 40.2% | 58.2% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 304Precinct 304 | 1,117 | 1,693 | 44 | 2,854 | 39.1% | 59.3% | R+20.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 309Precinct 309 | 1,084 | 1,589 | 43 | 2,716 | 39.9% | 58.5% | R+18.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 213Precinct 213 | 769 | 1,827 | 37 | 2,633 | 29.2% | 69.4% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 128Precinct 128 | 757 | 1,725 | 33 | 2,515 | 30.1% | 68.6% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 106Precinct 106 | 815 | 1,656 | 24 | 2,495 | 32.7% | 66.4% | R+33.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 412Precinct 412 | 1,142 | 1,212 | 28 | 2,382 | 47.9% | 50.9% | R+2.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 409Precinct 409 | 1,203 | 1,080 | 28 | 2,311 | 52.1% | 46.7% | D+5.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 105Precinct 105 | 469 | 1,809 | 26 | 2,304 | 20.4% | 78.5% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 129Precinct 129 | 658 | 1,447 | 22 | 2,127 | 30.9% | 68.0% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 117Precinct 117 | 630 | 1,437 | 29 | 2,096 | 30.1% | 68.6% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 311Precinct 311 | 883 | 1,156 | 23 | 2,062 | 42.8% | 56.1% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 401Precinct 401 | 566 | 1,466 | 22 | 2,054 | 27.6% | 71.4% | R+43.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 405Precinct 405 | 407 | 1,497 | 27 | 1,931 | 21.1% | 77.5% | R+56.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 116Precinct 116 | 404 | 1,341 | 20 | 1,765 | 22.9% | 76.0% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 407Precinct 407 | 273 | 1,297 | 11 | 1,581 | 17.3% | 82.0% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 308Precinct 308 | 529 | 973 | 22 | 1,524 | 34.7% | 63.8% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 206Precinct 206 | 748 | 692 | 10 | 1,450 | 51.6% | 47.7% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 119Precinct 119 | 320 | 1,090 | 8 | 1,418 | 22.6% | 76.9% | R+54.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 102Precinct 102 | 418 | 976 | 22 | 1,416 | 29.5% | 68.9% | R+39.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 408Precinct 408 | 453 | 938 | 16 | 1,407 | 32.2% | 66.7% | R+34.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 204Precinct 204 | 529 | 718 | 15 | 1,262 | 41.9% | 56.9% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 310Precinct 310 | 508 | 724 | 13 | 1,245 | 40.8% | 58.2% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 406Precinct 406 | 192 | 1,035 | 7 | 1,234 | 15.6% | 83.9% | R+68.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 205Precinct 205 | 224 | 761 | 12 | 997 | 22.5% | 76.3% | R+53.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 303Precinct 303 | 381 | 586 | 25 | 992 | 38.4% | 59.1% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 107Precinct 107 | 180 | 783 | 8 | 971 | 18.5% | 80.6% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 114Precinct 114 | 263 | 667 | 11 | 941 | 27.9% | 70.9% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 120Precinct 120 | 197 | 711 | 9 | 917 | 21.5% | 77.5% | R+56.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 215Precinct 215 | 246 | 638 | 6 | 890 | 27.6% | 71.7% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 113Precinct 113 | 210 | 595 | 9 | 814 | 25.8% | 73.1% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 214Precinct 214 | 164 | 562 | 11 | 737 | 22.3% | 76.3% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 202Precinct 202 | 315 | 283 | 14 | 612 | 51.5% | 46.2% | D+5.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 413Precinct 413 | 57 | 534 | 7 | 598 | 9.5% | 89.3% | R+79.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 207Precinct 207 | 295 | 283 | 9 | 587 | 50.3% | 48.2% | D+2.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 228Precinct 228 | 186 | 388 | 5 | 579 | 32.1% | 67.0% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 210Precinct 210 | 236 | 317 | 7 | 560 | 42.1% | 56.6% | R+14.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 104Precinct 104 | 233 | 308 | 7 | 548 | 42.5% | 56.2% | R+13.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 103Precinct 103 | 148 | 371 | 12 | 531 | 27.9% | 69.9% | R+42.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 109Precinct 109 | 79 | 341 | 7 | 427 | 18.5% | 79.9% | R+61.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 227Precinct 227 | 103 | 307 | 5 | 415 | 24.8% | 74.0% | R+49.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 203Precinct 203 | 161 | 219 | 5 | 385 | 41.8% | 56.9% | R+15.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 209Precinct 209 | 200 | 177 | 4 | 381 | 52.5% | 46.5% | D+6.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 115Precinct 115 | 76 | 295 | 1 | 372 | 20.4% | 79.3% | R+58.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 201Precinct 201 | 114 | 180 | 3 | 297 | 38.4% | 60.6% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 216Precinct 216 | 68 | 198 | 4 | 270 | 25.2% | 73.3% | R+48.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 226Precinct 226 | 66 | 154 | 4 | 224 | 29.5% | 68.8% | R+39.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 410Precinct 410 | 55 | 165 | 1 | 221 | 24.9% | 74.7% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 230Precinct 230 | 51 | 152 | 0 | 203 | 25.1% | 74.9% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 212Precinct 212 | 90 | 99 | 3 | 192 | 46.9% | 51.6% | R+4.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 110Precinct 110 | 63 | 98 | 3 | 164 | 38.4% | 59.8% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 223Precinct 223 | 81 | 79 | 2 | 162 | 50.0% | 48.8% | D+1.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 125Precinct 125 | 27 | 118 | 3 | 148 | 18.2% | 79.7% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 112Precinct 112 | 56 | 50 | 2 | 108 | 51.9% | 46.3% | D+5.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 229Precinct 229 | 39 | 68 | 1 | 108 | 36.1% | 63.0% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 231Precinct 231 | 24 | 76 | 2 | 102 | 23.5% | 74.5% | R+51.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 211Precinct 211 | 43 | 47 | 3 | 93 | 46.2% | 50.5% | R+4.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 217Precinct 217 | 43 | 50 | 0 | 93 | 46.2% | 53.8% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 224Precinct 224 | 49 | 34 | 0 | 83 | 59.0% | 41.0% | D+18.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 220Precinct 220 | 33 | 28 | 0 | 61 | 54.1% | 45.9% | D+8.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 219Precinct 219 | 26 | 30 | 1 | 57 | 45.6% | 52.6% | R+7.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 218Precinct 218 | 24 | 18 | 0 | 42 | 57.1% | 42.9% | D+14.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 232Precinct 232 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 29 | 24.1% | 72.4% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 126Precinct 126 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 22 | 18.2% | 81.8% | R+63.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 221Precinct 221 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 20 | 25.0% | 65.0% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 127Precinct 127 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 7.1% | 92.9% | R+85.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 225Precinct 225 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 50.0% | 42.9% | D+7.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 123Precinct 123 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 124Precinct 124 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 222Precinct 222 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | D+100.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | −14.4% |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | +2.3% |
| 1916 | −37.1% |
| 1920 | −39.6% |
| 1924 | −20.2% |
| 1928 | +13.0% |
| 1932 | +68.7% |
| 1936 | +40.0% |
| 1940 | −6.2% |
| 1944 | −22.4% |
| 1948 | −7.8% |
| 1952 | −30.7% |
| 1956 | −34.2% |
| 1960 | −8.0% |
| 1964 | +25.1% |
| 1968 | −8.8% |
| 1972 | −41.7% |
| 1976 | −5.5% |
| 1980 | −31.4% |
| 1984 | −47.8% |
| 1988 | −29.9% |
| 1992 | −18.4% |
| 1996 | −25.3% |
| 2000 | −43.1% |
| 2004 | −46.2% |
| 2008 | −31.0% |
| 2012 | −35.0% |
| 2016 | −31.4% |
| 2020 | −24.1% |
| 2024 | −29.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 93,596 |
| 2018 | 99,012 |
| 2020 | 111,142 |
| 2022 | 119,523 |
| 2024 | 130,489 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+4,737 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +49,638 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,216 in average income, against $82,110 for residents who stayed — 12% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+4.9 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Guadalupe County, TX itself (R+29.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bexar County, TX2,502D+9.7
- Comal County, TX1,276R+45.5
- Hays County, TX577D+5.6
- Travis County, TX354D+39.3
- Harris County, TX158D+5.5
- Williamson County, TX133R+2.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bexar County, TX1,894
- Comal County, TX1,108
- Hays County, TX354
- Travis County, TX224
- Harris County, TX139
- Wilson County, TX124
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +2,304 |
| 2012 | +2,769 |
| 2013 | +2,352 |
| 2014 | +2,882 |
| 2015 | +2,925 |
| 2016 | +3,036 |
| 2017 | +4,339 |
| 2018 | +2,942 |
| 2019 | +2,866 |
| 2021 | +3,380 |
| 2022 | +4,875 |
| 2023 | +5,084 |
| 2024 | +5,147 |
| 2025 | +4,737 |
Guadalupe County sits at the northeastern edge of the San Antonio metro, where rapid suburban growth has not eroded a Republican presidential margin that has held above 25 points for over a decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 68.7 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 47.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.5 points.
A population of 183,642, a 47% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $92,375 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lubbock County and Douglas County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Lubbock County
Texas
85.2twin score
% Latino2000–2004 trajectory12-yr trend≠ median income
Douglas County
Washington
85.2twin score
12-yr trend% Latino2000 margin≠ Swedish ancestry
Ellis County
Texas
83.0twin score
12-yr trend2000–2004 trajectorypopulation scale≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Guadalupe County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48187/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Guadalupe County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Guadalupe County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Guadalupe County, Texas voted Republican by 29.5 points (R+29.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 85,136 votes cast, 29,573 went Democratic and 54,691 went Republican.
When did Guadalupe County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Guadalupe County, Texas voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Guadalupe County, Texas?
Guadalupe County, Texas has a population of 183,642 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Guadalupe County, Texas?
Median household income in Guadalupe County, Texas is $92,375 — above the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Guadalupe County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Guadalupe County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.