HarrisDemocratic36.9%10,183TrumpRepublican62.0%17,077SteinIndependent0.6%152
R+25.0- Lead
- 6,894
- Total
- 27,561
- vs nation
- R+23.5
- Turnout
- 65.9%
Akashiccounty
Waller County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.9% of 41,828 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic36.0%8,191TrumpRepublican62.7%14,260JorgensenLibertarian0.9%201
R+26.7- Lead
- 6,069
- Total
- 22,734
- vs nation
- R+31.1
- Turnout
- 62.0%
ClintonDemocratic34.2%5,748TrumpRepublican62.7%10,531JohnsonLibertarian2.0%342
R+28.5- Lead
- 4,783
- Total
- 16,784
- vs nation
- R+30.6
- Turnout
- 53.7%
ObamaDemocratic41.0%6,514RomneyRepublican58.1%9,244GrayLibertarian0.6%100
R+17.2- Lead
- 2,730
- Total
- 15,902
- vs nation
- R+21.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic46.1%7,153McCainRepublican53.3%8,265OtherAll other candidates0.6%90
R+7.2- Lead
- 1,112
- Total
- 15,508
- vs nation
- R+14.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.3%6,145BushRepublican55.3%7,679OtherAll other candidates0.4%57
R+11.1- Lead
- 1,534
- Total
- 13,881
- vs nation
- R+8.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic46.5%5,046BushRepublican52.4%5,686NaderGreen0.9%95
R+5.9- Lead
- 640
- Total
- 10,858
- vs nation
- R+6.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic52.6%4,535DoleRepublican41.3%3,559PerotReform5.8%499
D+11.3- Lead
- 976
- Total
- 8,622
- vs nation
- D+2.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+25.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 61,5522024 5-year
- Median household income
- $80,3972024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 38.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 23.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 33.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+86.0 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+28.5 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Bastrop County, TX · twin score 76.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.9%27,561 participants ÷ 41,828 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +20.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 45.2%–53.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 16,784 | 31,283 | 53.7% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 16,647 | 33,041 | 50.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 22,734 | 36,670 | 62.0% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 16,768 | 40,570 | 41.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 27,561 | 41,828 | 65.9% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
19 precincts · 27,561 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 420Precinct 420 | 1,269 | 2,339 | 59 | 3,667 | 34.6% | 63.8% | R+29.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 207Precinct 207 | 358 | 2,352 | 17 | 2,727 | 13.1% | 86.2% | R+73.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 314Precinct 314 | 1,134 | 1,366 | 34 | 2,534 | 44.8% | 53.9% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 418Precinct 418 | 690 | 1,739 | 32 | 2,461 | 28.0% | 70.7% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 209Precinct 209 | 372 | 1,958 | 21 | 2,351 | 15.8% | 83.3% | R+67.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 311Precinct 311 | 2,223 | 67 | 15 | 2,305 | 96.4% | 2.9% | D+93.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 102Precinct 102 | 781 | 1,074 | 21 | 1,876 | 41.6% | 57.2% | R+15.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 101Precinct 101 | 347 | 1,014 | 9 | 1,370 | 25.3% | 74.0% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 419Precinct 419 | 752 | 576 | 17 | 1,345 | 55.9% | 42.8% | D+13.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 313Precinct 313 | 207 | 1,072 | 18 | 1,297 | 16.0% | 82.7% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 208Precinct 208 | 347 | 854 | 11 | 1,212 | 28.6% | 70.5% | R+41.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 312Precinct 312 | 873 | 221 | 16 | 1,110 | 78.6% | 19.9% | D+58.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 106Precinct 106 | 283 | 672 | 10 | 965 | 29.3% | 69.6% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 105Precinct 105 | 128 | 682 | 4 | 814 | 15.7% | 83.8% | R+68.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 104Precinct 104 | 151 | 308 | 4 | 463 | 32.6% | 66.5% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 210Precinct 210 | 82 | 275 | 2 | 359 | 22.8% | 76.6% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 416Precinct 416 | 73 | 225 | 5 | 303 | 24.1% | 74.3% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 103Precinct 103 | 81 | 145 | 5 | 231 | 35.1% | 62.8% | R+27.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 315Precinct 315 | 32 | 138 | 1 | 171 | 18.7% | 80.7% | R+62.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +17.7% |
| 1908 | +32.8% |
| 1912 | +52.4% |
| 1916 | +55.0% |
| 1920 | +40.6% |
| 1924 | +70.9% |
| 1928 | +14.5% |
| 1932 | +86.0% |
| 1936 | +77.6% |
| 1940 | +56.0% |
| 1944 | +56.9% |
| 1948 | +22.3% |
| 1952 | −8.1% |
| 1956 | −20.7% |
| 1960 | −0.6% |
| 1964 | +37.7% |
| 1968 | +21.1% |
| 1972 | −18.9% |
| 1976 | +17.2% |
| 1980 | +4.8% |
| 1984 | −3.6% |
| 1988 | +4.6% |
| 1992 | +13.3% |
| 1996 | +11.3% |
| 2000 | −5.9% |
| 2004 | −11.1% |
| 2008 | −7.2% |
| 2012 | −17.2% |
| 2016 | −28.5% |
| 2020 | −26.7% |
| 2024 | −25.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 31,491 |
| 2018 | 32,834 |
| 2020 | 35,116 |
| 2022 | 37,595 |
| 2024 | 44,330 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,997 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +17,567 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $82,134 in average income, against $93,581 for residents who stayed — 12% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+5.3 on average — 20 points more Democratic-leaning than Waller County, TX itself (R+25.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Harris County, TX1,090D+5.5
- Fort Bend County, TX232D+1.6
- Montgomery County, TX109R+45.5
- Austin County, TX66R+62.7
- Grimes County, TX52R+60.2
- Brazos County, TX37R+24.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Harris County, TX838
- Fort Bend County, TX242
- Montgomery County, TX152
- Austin County, TX79
- Grimes County, TX57
- Brazos County, TX38
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +283 |
| 2012 | −71 |
| 2013 | +761 |
| 2014 | +974 |
| 2015 | +1,406 |
| 2016 | +1,024 |
| 2017 | +1,280 |
| 2018 | +1,435 |
| 2019 | +1,359 |
| 2021 | +2,043 |
| 2022 | +1,976 |
| 2023 | +1,428 |
| 2024 | +672 |
| 2025 | +2,997 |
Waller County sits on Houston's northwestern fringe, where rapid residential development has not yet shifted its presidential margins, which held at R+25 in 2024 despite population growth exceeding many neighboring counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 86.0 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 28.5 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.7 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 25.0 points.
A population of 61,552, a 38% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,397 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bastrop County and Yuma County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Bastrop County
Texas
76.2twin score
% Latino% Whitemedian income≠ % Black
Yuma County
Arizona
74.1twin score
% White% unaffiliated12-yr trend≠ % Latino
Caldwell County
Texas
73.5twin score
% White% Evangelical2004 margin≠ % Latino
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Waller County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48473/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Waller County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Waller County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Waller County, Texas voted Republican by 25.0 points (R+25.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 27,561 votes cast, 10,183 went Democratic and 17,077 went Republican.
When did Waller County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Waller County, Texas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Waller County, Texas?
Waller County, Texas has a population of 61,552 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Waller County, Texas?
Median household income in Waller County, Texas is $80,397 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Waller County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Waller County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.