HarrisDemocratic51.8%2,333,778TrumpRepublican46.1%2,074,097SteinGreen0.8%34,880
D+5.8- Lead
- 259,681
- Total
- 4,503,288
- vs nation
- D+7.2
- Turnout
- 70.7%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+5.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 8,705,1702024 5-year
- Population density
- 220 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 39,481 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $93,1702024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 18.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+48.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Maryland, MD · twin score 66.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 70.7%4,511,853 participants ÷ 6,378,480 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 47.0%–53.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,996,302 | 5,998,907 | 66.6% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 3,343,186 | 6,096,244 | 54.8% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 4,487,338 | 6,198,540 | 72.4% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 3,074,762 | 6,322,253 | 48.6% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 4,511,853 | 6,378,480 | 70.7% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
70.2%
234,980 votes · D+40.8
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 68.5%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
67.9%
995,827 votes · R+37.7
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 62.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
2,413,568votes
54.1% of the vote · D+10.1
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 2,333,778 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
2,074,097votes
46.1% of the vote · D+5.8
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,962,430 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+54.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+29.7 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +49.7 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+15.5pts R vs U.S.
Place D+7.1 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · +14.6 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
U.S. Senate
Mark WarnernomineeBert Mizusawanominee
Warner, seeking a fourth term, was nominated without a primary. Retired Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa won the Aug. 4 GOP primary with 51.5% over David Williams (28.9%).
U.S. House elections · 267 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 6 · R 5 | 51.4% | 47.6% | 4,425,762 | |
| D 6 · R 5 | 51.6% | 48.0% | 3,047,729 | |
| D 7 · R 4 | 52.0% | 47.2% | 4,335,436 | |
| D 7 · R 4 | 56.4% | 42.5% | 3,312,956 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 5,604,106 |
| 2018 | 5,666,627 |
| 2020 | 5,975,561 |
| 2022 | 6,105,868 |
| 2024 | 6,380,686 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+6,268 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −105,797 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +13,026 |
| 2012 | +4,466 |
| 2013 | +3,113 |
| 2014 | −15,987 |
| 2015 | −25,367 |
| 2016 | −24,979 |
| 2017 | −12,473 |
| 2018 | −9,317 |
| 2019 | −9,136 |
| 2021 | −3,666 |
| 2022 | −26,089 |
| 2023 | −8,117 |
| 2024 | +2,461 |
| 2025 | +6,268 |
Virginia last gave a Republican a presidential majority in 2004; Loudoun County voted Republican that year and Democratic by 16.2 points in 2024.
- Reliably Democratic now
- D+10.1 (2020) → D+5.8 (2024) — a 4.3-point move toward Trump; last Republican presidential win was 2004 (R+8.2) · MIT Election Lab
- The Northern Virginia engine
- Loudoun R+12.1 (2004) → D+16.2 (2024); Prince William R+6.4 (2004) → D+17.9; Fairfax R+1.4 (2000) → D+34.7 · MIT Election Lab
- Affluent and educated
- 11th of 50 in median household income ($93,170); 7th in bachelor’s-degree share (42.3%) — the Northern Virginia wealth · ACS 2024 5-year
- The Richmond suburbs flipped
- Henrico D+28.7; Chesterfield, R+28.2 in 2000, flipped Democratic in 2020 and ran D+8.9 in 2024 · MIT Election Lab
- Independent cities, bluest unit
- Virginia counts cities as county-equivalents — Petersburg is the bluest at D+72.5; Arlington D+58.1, Alexandria (city) D+57.1 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The Republican rural map
- Lee County, in the southwest coalfields, is the reddest at R+72.0; the Shenandoah Valley runs Republican (Augusta R+47.3, Rockingham R+36.8) · MIT Election Lab 2024
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Maryland
Maryland
66.1twin score
12-yr trendcollege sharemedian income≠ 2000 margin
Georgia
Georgia
62.4twin score
12-yr trendpopulation scale% Catholic≠ % Black
North Carolina
North Carolina
53.9twin score
% Blackpopulation scale% Catholic≠ median income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/VA/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Virginia
Frequently asked questions
How did Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Virginia voted Democratic by 5.8 points (D+5.8), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 4,503,288 votes cast, 2,333,778 went Democratic and 2,074,097 went Republican.
When did Virginia last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Virginia voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Virginia?
Virginia has a population of 8,705,170 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Virginia?
Median household income in Virginia is $93,170 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Virginia?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Virginia from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.