- Lead
- 6,784
- Total
- 79,514
- vs nation
- R+7.1
- Turnout
- 75.8%
Spotsylvania County, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 75.8% of 105,349 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 5,104
- Total
- 75,317
- vs nation
- R+11.2
- Turnout
- 77.0%
- Lead
- 10,416
- Total
- 62,549
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- 67.8%
- Lead
- 6,679
- Total
- 57,974
- vs nation
- R+15.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,713
- Total
- 54,069
- vs nation
- R+14.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 11,904
- Total
- 45,445
- vs nation
- R+23.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 7,284
- Total
- 35,021
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,444
- Total
- 26,197
- vs nation
- R+21.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 146,6032024 5-year
- Median household income
- $112,7382024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 61.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+53.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Stafford County, VA · twin score 95.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 75.8%79,841 participants ÷ 105,349 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 53.5%–58.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 62,549 | 92,210 | 67.8% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 52,290 | 94,626 | 55.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 75,317 | 97,840 | 77.0% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 55,847 | 102,050 | 54.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 79,841 | 105,349 | 75.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
60 precincts · 79,514 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -103 - JOHN J. WRIGHT103 - JOHN J. WRIGHT | 2,024 | 2,388 | 56 | 4,468 | 45.3% | 53.4% | R+8.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -505 - BROCK ROAD ELEMENTARY505 - BROCK ROAD ELEMENTARY | 1,665 | 2,459 | 39 | 4,163 | 40.0% | 59.1% | R+19.1 |
| Precinct -303 - RIVERBEND HIGH303 - RIVERBEND HIGH | 1,730 | 2,089 | 72 | 3,891 | 44.5% | 53.7% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -202 - FIRE RESCUE 7202 - FIRE RESCUE 7 | 1,451 | 2,302 | 67 | 3,820 | 38.0% | 60.3% | R+22.3 |
| Precinct -704 - COURTLAND ELEMENTARY704 - COURTLAND ELEMENTARY | 1,776 | 1,778 | 47 | 3,601 | 49.3% | 49.4% | R+0.1 |
| Precinct -203 - NI RIVER MIDDLE203 - NI RIVER MIDDLE | 1,403 | 1,988 | 42 | 3,433 | 40.9% | 57.9% | R+17.0 |
| Precinct -302 - SALEM LIBRARY302 - SALEM LIBRARY | 1,814 | 1,550 | 59 | 3,423 | 53.0% | 45.3% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -403 - LEE HILL ELEMENTARY403 - LEE HILL ELEMENTARY | 1,771 | 1,491 | 52 | 3,314 | 53.4% | 45.0% | D+8.4 |
| Precinct -602 - SMITH STATION ELEMENTARY602 - SMITH STATION ELEMENTARY | 1,769 | 1,449 | 96 | 3,314 | 53.4% | 43.7% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -204 - CHANCELLOR ELEMENTARY204 - CHANCELLOR ELEMENTARY | 1,483 | 1,619 | 53 | 3,155 | 47.0% | 51.3% | R+4.3 |
| Precinct -402 - GERMANNA CAMPUS402 - GERMANNA CAMPUS | 1,735 | 1,341 | 61 | 3,137 | 55.3% | 42.7% | D+12.6 |
| Precinct -104 - MASSAPONAX HIGH104 - MASSAPONAX HIGH | 1,550 | 1,487 | 48 | 3,085 | 50.2% | 48.2% | D+2.0 |
| Precinct -703 - LEE'S PARKE703 - LEE'S PARKE | 1,862 | 1,119 | 46 | 3,027 | 61.5% | 37.0% | D+24.5 |
| Precinct -504 - PUBLIC SAFETY504 - PUBLIC SAFETY | 1,235 | 1,740 | 44 | 3,019 | 40.9% | 57.6% | R+16.7 |
| Precinct -102 - BERKELEY102 - BERKELEY | 722 | 2,002 | 26 | 2,750 | 26.3% | 72.8% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct -401 - COSNER PARK401 - COSNER PARK | 1,377 | 1,309 | 64 | 2,750 | 50.1% | 47.6% | D+2.5 |
| Precinct -601 - BATTLEFIELD ELEMENTARY601 - BATTLEFIELD ELEMENTARY | 1,323 | 1,330 | 42 | 2,695 | 49.1% | 49.4% | R+0.3 |
| Precinct -702 - EASTLAND CHURCH702 - EASTLAND CHURCH | 1,407 | 1,187 | 47 | 2,641 | 53.3% | 44.9% | D+8.3 |
| Precinct -101 - PARTLOW RURITAN101 - PARTLOW RURITAN | 607 | 1,949 | 34 | 2,590 | 23.4% | 75.3% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct -701 - SPOTSWOOD ELEMENTARY701 - SPOTSWOOD ELEMENTARY | 1,225 | 1,145 | 38 | 2,408 | 50.9% | 47.5% | D+3.3 |
| Precinct -604 - COURTHOUSE ROAD ELEMENTARY604 - COURTHOUSE ROAD ELEMENTARY | 1,186 | 1,062 | 21 | 2,269 | 52.3% | 46.8% | D+5.5 |
| Precinct -501 - BELMONT RURITAN501 - BELMONT RURITAN | 642 | 1,521 | 28 | 2,191 | 29.3% | 69.4% | R+40.1 |
| Precinct -503 - SPOTSYLVANIA HIGH503 - SPOTSYLVANIA HIGH | 530 | 1,624 | 18 | 2,172 | 24.4% | 74.8% | R+50.4 |
| Precinct -301 - SALEM ELEMENTARY301 - SALEM ELEMENTARY | 1,062 | 1,030 | 30 | 2,122 | 50.0% | 48.5% | D+1.5 |
| Precinct -201 - WILDERNESS ELEMENTARY201 - WILDERNESS ELEMENTARY | 924 | 1,117 | 31 | 2,072 | 44.6% | 53.9% | R+9.3 |
| Precinct -502 - FIRE RESCUE 2502 - FIRE RESCUE 2 | 534 | 1,470 | 26 | 2,030 | 26.3% | 72.4% | R+46.1 |
| Precinct -603 - CHANCELLOR HIGH603 - CHANCELLOR HIGH | 940 | 985 | 49 | 1,974 | 47.6% | 49.9% | R+2.3 |
| Battlefield51177000701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Belmont51177000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blaydes Corner51177000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brents Mill (CD 01)51177000702 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brents Mill (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brock51177000505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brokenburg51177000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chancellor51177000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Courthouse51177000504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fairview (CD 01)51177000703 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fairview (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gayle (CD 01)51177000704 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gayle (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hazel Run51177000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lee Hill51177000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Massaponax51177000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ni River / Elys Ford51177000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parkside (CD 01)51177000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parkside (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Partlow51177000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Piedmont51177000603 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plank Road51177000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Post Oak51177000503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -304 - KNIGHTS OF PYTHIAS LODGE304 - KNIGHTS OF PYTHIAS LODGE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -404 - FIRE RESCUE 11404 - FIRE RESCUE 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Riverbend51177000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Salem51177000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Smith Station51177000602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Summit51177000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Travelers Rest (CD 01)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Travelers Rest (CD 07)51177000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilderness Fire51177000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilderness School51177000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +10.7% |
| 1896 | −1.5% |
| 1900 | −2.7% |
| 1904 | +16.0% |
| 1908 | +10.0% |
| 1912 | +53.8% |
| 1916 | +23.0% |
| 1920 | +7.2% |
| 1924 | +26.2% |
| 1928 | −19.7% |
| 1932 | +38.2% |
| 1936 | +29.6% |
| 1940 | +36.4% |
| 1944 | +19.2% |
| 1948 | +19.9% |
| 1952 | +0.8% |
| 1956 | −10.5% |
| 1960 | +6.9% |
| 1964 | +3.6% |
| 1968 | −0.6% |
| 1972 | −46.6% |
| 1976 | +13.2% |
| 1980 | −13.5% |
| 1984 | −34.1% |
| 1988 | −33.1% |
| 1992 | −15.4% |
| 1996 | −13.1% |
| 2000 | −20.8% |
| 2004 | −26.2% |
| 2008 | −6.9% |
| 2012 | −11.5% |
| 2016 | −16.7% |
| 2020 | −6.8% |
| 2024 | −8.5% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 88,672 |
| 2018 | 90,944 |
| 2020 | 99,199 |
| 2022 | 104,996 |
| 2024 | 110,817 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,199 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +16,690 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,938 in average income, against $92,885 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+14.3 on average — 23 points more Democratic-leaning than Spotsylvania County, VA itself (R+8.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Stafford County, VA837D+0.8
- Fredericksburg city, VA635D+31.5
- Prince William County, VA576D+17.9
- Fairfax County, VA333D+34.7
- Caroline County, VA189R+8.8
- Orange County, VA147R+24.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Fredericksburg city, VA564
- Stafford County, VA525
- Caroline County, VA297
- Prince William County, VA223
- Orange County, VA181
- Fairfax County, VA179
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +558 |
| 2012 | +310 |
| 2013 | +640 |
| 2014 | +485 |
| 2015 | +223 |
| 2016 | +448 |
| 2017 | +807 |
| 2018 | +739 |
| 2019 | +1,711 |
| 2021 | +3,038 |
| 2022 | +2,110 |
| 2023 | +2,044 |
| 2024 | +1,378 |
| 2025 | +2,199 |
Spotsylvania sits along the Interstate 95 corridor south of Fredericksburg, where rapid population growth driven by D.C.-area transplants has gradually compressed what were once double-digit Republican margins in presidential races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 53.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 46.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.5 points.
A population of 146,603, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $112,738 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Stafford County and Frederick County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Spotsylvania County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51177/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.