| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 41,252 | 40,590 | 83,539 | |
| 2020 | D | 40,245 | 37,636 | 79,625 | |
| 2016 | R | 27,908 | 33,868 | 65,934 | |
| 2012 | R | 27,182 | 32,480 | 60,583 | |
| 2008 | R | 25,716 | 29,221 | 55,455 | |
| 2004 | R | 17,208 | 28,500 | 45,986 | |
| 2000 | R | 12,596 | 20,731 | 34,246 | |
| 1996 | R | 9,902 | 14,098 | 26,089 | |
| 1992 | R | 7,718 | 12,528 | 24,871 | |
| 1988 | R | 5,380 | 12,234 | 17,712 | |
| 1984 | R | 4,429 | 10,293 | 14,782 | |
| 1980 | R | 4,211 | 7,106 | 12,075 | |
| 1976 | D | 4,900 | 4,451 | 9,502 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,498 | 3,225 | 4,807 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,698 | 2,572 | 6,482 | |
| 1964 | D | 2,566 | 1,520 | 4,090 | |
| 1960 | D | 1,494 | 1,447 | 2,965 | |
| 1956 | R | 978 | 1,563 | 2,652 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,077 | 1,411 | 2,504 | |
| 1948 | R | 708 | 732 | 1,579 | |
| 1944 | R | 698 | 714 | 1,418 | |
| 1940 | D | 803 | 463 | 1,269 | |
| 1936 | D | 651 | 596 | 1,250 | |
| 1932 | D | 731 | 454 | 1,191 | |
| 1928 | R | 441 | 797 | 1,238 | |
| 1924 | D | 450 | 433 | 929 | |
| 1920 | R | 459 | 599 | 1,060 | |
| 1916 | D | 444 | 422 | 868 | |
| 1912 | D | 347 | 141 | 673 | |
| 1908 | R | 406 | 474 | 884 | |
| 1904 | R | 301 | 384 | 691 | |
| 1900 | R | 648 | 867 | 1,516 | |
| 1896 | R | 629 | 1,084 | 1,719 | |
| 1892 | D | 742 | 558 | 1,316 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Stafford sits along the I-95 corridor south of Washington, drawing a fast-growing mix of federal workers and military families whose shifting composition has turned a once reliably red county into a genuine toss-up.
The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached thirty-one points in 1912; the Republican margin reached forty points in 1984. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.
Stafford County's demographics — a population of 163,466, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $137,807 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Talbot County and James City County.
