- Lead
- 13,681
- Total
- 19,906
- vs nation
- R+67.3
- Turnout
- 63.2%
Tazewell County, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.2% of 31,611 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 13,526
- Total
- 20,134
- vs nation
- R+71.6
- Turnout
- 61.1%
- Lead
- 12,273
- Total
- 18,566
- vs nation
- R+68.2
- Turnout
- 54.2%
- Lead
- 10,182
- Total
- 17,732
- vs nation
- R+61.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,605
- Total
- 17,061
- vs nation
- R+40.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,855
- Total
- 17,480
- vs nation
- R+13.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,428
- Total
- 16,344
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,369
- Total
- 15,440
- vs nation
- D+0.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+68.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 39,6242024 5-year
- Median household income
- $47,3132024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 92.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+20.2 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+68.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Johnson County, KY · twin score 95.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.2%19,986 participants ÷ 31,611 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +25.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 38.2%–43.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 18,800 | 34,702 | 54.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 13,530 | 33,723 | 40.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 20,189 | 33,056 | 61.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 11,644 | 32,306 | 36.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 19,986 | 31,611 | 63.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
40 precincts · 19,906 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -401 - RICHLANDS401 - RICHLANDS | 557 | 3,047 | 40 | 3,644 | 15.3% | 83.6% | R+68.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -209 - JEFFERSONVILLE209 - JEFFERSONVILLE | 631 | 2,351 | 22 | 3,004 | 21.0% | 78.3% | R+57.3 |
| Precinct -502 - GRAHAM502 - GRAHAM | 549 | 2,207 | 36 | 2,792 | 19.7% | 79.0% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct -301 - CEDAR BLUFF301 - CEDAR BLUFF | 288 | 2,098 | 11 | 2,397 | 12.0% | 87.5% | R+75.5 |
| Precinct -303 - PAINT LICK303 - PAINT LICK | 221 | 1,589 | 14 | 1,824 | 12.1% | 87.1% | R+75.0 |
| Precinct -103 - MUNDY TOWN103 - MUNDY TOWN | 161 | 1,044 | 9 | 1,214 | 13.3% | 86.0% | R+72.7 |
| Precinct -101 - INDIAN VALLEY101 - INDIAN VALLEY | 75 | 638 | 4 | 717 | 10.5% | 89.0% | R+78.5 |
| Precinct -204 - CLEAR FORK204 - CLEAR FORK | 81 | 621 | 2 | 704 | 11.5% | 88.2% | R+76.7 |
| Precinct -214 - THOMPSON VALLEY214 - THOMPSON VALLEY | 89 | 542 | 2 | 633 | 14.1% | 85.6% | R+71.6 |
| Precinct -104 - FALLS MILLS104 - FALLS MILLS | 72 | 511 | 7 | 590 | 12.2% | 86.6% | R+74.4 |
| Precinct -102 - TIP TOP102 - TIP TOP | 82 | 486 | 7 | 575 | 14.3% | 84.5% | R+70.3 |
| Precinct -302 - BAPTIST VALLEY302 - BAPTIST VALLEY | 50 | 328 | 4 | 382 | 13.1% | 85.9% | R+72.8 |
| Precinct -402 - JEWELL RIDGE402 - JEWELL RIDGE | 25 | 248 | 1 | 274 | 9.1% | 90.5% | R+81.4 |
| Precinct -106 - POCAHONTAS106 - POCAHONTAS | 51 | 202 | 1 | 254 | 20.1% | 79.5% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct -112 - BANDY112 - BANDY | 16 | 234 | 2 | 252 | 6.3% | 92.9% | R+86.5 |
| Precinct -109 - BISHOP109 - BISHOP | 27 | 212 | 0 | 239 | 11.3% | 88.7% | R+77.4 |
| Precinct -207 - FREESTONE207 - FREESTONE | 25 | 144 | 1 | 170 | 14.7% | 84.7% | R+70.0 |
| Precinct -203 - BURKES GARDEN203 - BURKES GARDEN | 13 | 127 | 2 | 142 | 9.2% | 89.4% | R+80.3 |
| Precinct -107 - AMONATE107 - AMONATE | 17 | 82 | 0 | 99 | 17.2% | 82.8% | R+65.7 |
| Amonate51185000107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bandy51185000112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Baptist Valley51185000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bishop51185000109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Burkes Garden51185000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cedar Bluff51185000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Clear Fork51185000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Falls Mills51185000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Freestone51185000207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Graham51185000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Indian Valley51185000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jeffersonville51185000209 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jewell Ridge51185000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mundy Town51185000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Paint Lick51185000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pocahontas51185000106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -501 - SPRINGVILE501 - SPRINGVILE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Richlands51185000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Springville51185000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thompson Valley51185000214 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tip Top51185000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −6.1% |
| 1896 | −22.9% |
| 1900 | −33.9% |
| 1904 | −29.0% |
| 1908 | −26.5% |
| 1912 | +16.0% |
| 1916 | −17.8% |
| 1920 | −15.2% |
| 1924 | −1.2% |
| 1928 | −21.6% |
| 1932 | +14.9% |
| 1936 | +20.2% |
| 1940 | +13.7% |
| 1944 | +10.9% |
| 1948 | −0.4% |
| 1952 | −12.2% |
| 1956 | −6.2% |
| 1960 | +16.9% |
| 1964 | +5.9% |
| 1968 | +2.6% |
| 1972 | −3.7% |
| 1976 | +14.9% |
| 1980 | −0.1% |
| 1984 | −9.1% |
| 1988 | +6.0% |
| 1992 | +13.0% |
| 1996 | +8.9% |
| 2000 | −8.7% |
| 2004 | −16.3% |
| 2008 | −32.9% |
| 2012 | −57.4% |
| 2016 | −66.1% |
| 2020 | −67.2% |
| 2024 | −68.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 28,378 |
| 2018 | 27,437 |
| 2020 | 28,367 |
| 2022 | 28,073 |
| 2024 | 28,262 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+35 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −2,717 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $46,226 in average income, against $65,240 for residents who stayed — 29% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+62.3 on average — 6.4 points more Democratic-leaning than Tazewell County, VA itself (R+68.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Mercer County, WV123R+57.3
- Buchanan County, VA66R+70.5
- Russell County, VA61R+67.4
- McDowell County, WV26R+60.4
- Washington County, VA21R+53.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Mercer County, WV122
- Russell County, VA66
- Buchanan County, VA59
- Washington County, VA33
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −155 |
| 2012 | −248 |
| 2013 | −56 |
| 2014 | −499 |
| 2015 | −373 |
| 2016 | −665 |
| 2017 | −729 |
| 2018 | −44 |
| 2019 | −240 |
| 2021 | 0 |
| 2022 | +139 |
| 2023 | +30 |
| 2024 | +88 |
| 2025 | +35 |
Tazewell County, anchored by the coalfield economy of Southwest Virginia, recorded an R+68.9 presidential margin in 2024—among the most lopsided results in the state and a signal of how sharply rural Appalachian voters have realigned over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 20.2 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 68.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 68.7 points.
A population of 39,624, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $47,313 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Johnson County and Wise County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Tazewell County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51185/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.