| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 3,202 | 4,938 | 8,232 | |
| 2020 | R | 3,252 | 4,485 | 7,815 | |
| 2016 | R | 2,852 | 4,302 | 7,397 | |
| 2012 | R | 3,191 | 4,310 | 7,558 | |
| 2008 | R | 3,312 | 4,041 | 7,406 | |
| 2004 | R | 2,548 | 3,832 | 6,409 | |
| 2000 | R | 2,118 | 3,362 | 5,605 | |
| 1996 | R | 1,957 | 2,605 | 5,028 | |
| 1992 | R | 1,862 | 2,667 | 5,334 | |
| 1988 | R | 1,506 | 2,984 | 4,581 | |
| 1984 | R | 1,407 | 3,166 | 4,628 | |
| 1980 | R | 1,551 | 2,598 | 4,330 | |
| 1976 | R | 1,814 | 2,167 | 4,126 | |
| 1972 | R | 633 | 1,370 | 2,029 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,077 | 1,438 | 3,492 | |
| 1964 | D | 684 | 677 | 1,365 | |
| 1960 | R | 858 | 1,340 | 2,211 | |
| 1956 | R | 428 | 1,191 | 1,900 | |
| 1952 | R | 573 | 1,230 | 1,806 | |
| 1948 | R | 429 | 535 | 1,146 | |
| 1944 | D | 695 | 525 | 1,221 | |
| 1940 | D | 712 | 386 | 1,102 | |
| 1936 | D | 618 | 260 | 878 | |
| 1932 | D | 630 | 245 | 884 | |
| 1928 | R | 286 | 744 | 1,030 | |
| 1924 | D | 589 | 130 | 729 | |
| 1920 | D | 536 | 221 | 763 | |
| 1916 | D | 503 | 111 | 617 | |
| 1912 | D | 470 | 102 | 624 | |
| 1908 | D | 410 | 185 | 597 | |
| 1904 | D | 532 | 225 | 760 | |
| 1900 | D | 809 | 807 | 1,623 | |
| 1896 | D | 953 | 904 | 1,873 | |
| 1892 | D | 953 | 792 | 1,823 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Northumberland sits at the tip of Virginia's Northern Neck peninsula, isolated by the Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Its small, older, majority-white population has shifted steadily rightward over two decades, producing a 21-point Republican margin in 2024.
The shift began with civil rights. 1968 marked the realignment in Northumberland County, by a ten points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at forty-four points in 1928. The 2024 margin was twenty-one points.
The political shift has tracked, in Northumberland County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 69% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $66,480, and a 12% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Culpeper County and Fairfield County.
