Akashic

county

Middlesex County, VA

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

American24.5%8.4%5.3%

English20.0%12.0%9.5%

Irish10.3%9.1%9.4%

German6.9%10.1%12.5%

Italian3.6%3.9%4.8%

Polish2.0%1.6%2.2%

Scotch-Irish1.9%——

Scottish1.3%1.9%1.3%

African American†15.7%15.6%9.9%

Puerto Rican1.6%1.4%1.8%

Salvadoran0.6%2.1%0.7%

Mexican0.5%2.4%11.3%

Guatemalan0.2%0.7%0.5%

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Middlesex County	Virginia	United States
Median age	55.5	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	4.0%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	34.1%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Middlesex County	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$75,060	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	7.3%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	33.8%	42.3%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Middlesex County	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	3.3%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	2.2%	7.9%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Middlesex County	Virginia	United States
Catholic	4.6%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	19.0%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	61.9%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	13.0%	8.4%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 77.3% of 9,007 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic35.8%2,473TrumpRepublican63.1%4,357OtherAll other candidates0.4%25

R+27.3

Lead: 1,884
Total: 6,907
vs nation: R+25.8
Turnout: 77.3%

BidenDemocratic36.7%2,491TrumpRepublican61.8%4,196JorgensenLibertarian1.1%77

R+25.1

Lead: 1,705
Total: 6,785
vs nation: R+29.6
Turnout: 76.9%

ClintonDemocratic35.0%2,108TrumpRepublican61.0%3,670JohnsonLibertarian2.3%140

R+26.0

Lead: 1,562
Total: 6,017
vs nation: R+28.0
Turnout: 67.2%

ObamaDemocratic39.0%2,370RomneyRepublican59.5%3,619OtherAll other candidates1.5%91

R+20.5

Lead: 1,249
Total: 6,080
vs nation: R+24.4
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic39.8%2,391McCainRepublican59.0%3,545OtherAll other candidates1.2%70

R+19.2

Lead: 1,154
Total: 6,006
vs nation: R+26.5
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic35.6%1,914BushRepublican62.0%3,336OtherAll other candidates2.4%127

R+26.4

Lead: 1,422
Total: 5,377
vs nation: R+24.0
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic35.6%1,671BushRepublican60.7%2,844NaderGreen1.8%84

R+25.0

Lead: 1,173
Total: 4,689
vs nation: R+25.5
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic39.7%1,704DoleRepublican49.8%2,141PerotReform8.1%350

R+10.2

Lead: 437
Total: 4,297
vs nation: R+18.7
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+27.3MIT Election Lab
Population: 10,8472024 5-year
Median household income: $75,0602024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 77.6%2024 5-year
Black: 15.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 3.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+68.8 in 1924MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+48.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Northumberland County, VA · twin score 88.7

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 77.3%6,960 participants ÷ 9,007 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +18.8 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: -5.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 58.5%–63.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	6,072	9,030	67.2%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	5,173	8,965	57.7%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	6,829	8,885	76.9%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	5,182	8,920	58.1%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	6,960	9,007	77.3%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

12 precincts · 6,907 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Middlesex County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -201 - NEW MARKET201 - NEW MARKET	432	1,098	10	1,540	28.1%	71.3%	R+43.2
Precinct -501 - WILTON501 - WILTON	476	1,000	20	1,496	31.8%	66.8%	R+35.0
Precinct -401 - HARMONY VILLAGE401 - HARMONY VILLAGE	503	767	23	1,293	38.9%	59.3%	R+20.4
Precinct -302 - CHURCH VIEW302 - CHURCH VIEW	525	712	9	1,246	42.1%	57.1%	R+15.0
Precinct -102 - URBANNA102 - URBANNA	324	487	7	818	39.6%	59.5%	R+19.9
Precinct -101 - SALUDA101 - SALUDA	213	293	8	514	41.4%	57.0%	R+15.6
Church View51119000302	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Harmony Village51119000401	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
New Market51119000201	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Saluda51119000101	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Urbanna51119000102	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Wilton51119000501	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−3.3%
1896	+0.6%
1900	+3.5%
1904	+46.4%
1908	+43.2%
1912	+46.9%
1916	+41.3%
1920	+44.0%
1924	+68.8%
1928	+11.0%
1932	+63.1%
1936	+67.9%
1940	+64.7%
1944	+54.0%
1948	+21.2%
1952	−16.2%
1956	−30.8%
1960	−17.8%
1964	−21.1%
1968	−11.5%
1972	−48.0%
1976	−9.7%
1980	−12.4%
1984	−36.2%
1988	−30.1%
1992	−13.4%
1996	−10.2%
2000	−25.0%
2004	−26.4%
2008	−19.2%
2012	−20.5%
2016	−26.0%
2020	−25.1%
2024	−27.3%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	35.8%Harris2,473	63.1%Trump4,357	0.3%Oliver24 +4	R+27.3	R+2.1	R+25.8	6,907
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican63.1%4,357 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic35.8%2,473 OtherAll other candidates0.4%25 Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%24 Jill SteinIndependent0.2%14 Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%10 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%4
2020	R	36.7%Biden2,491	61.8%Trump4,196	1.1%Jorgensen77	R+25.1	D+0.8	R+29.6	6,785
2016	R	35.0%Clinton2,108	61.0%Trump3,670	2.3%Johnson140	R+26.0	R+5.4	R+28.0	6,017
2012	R	39.0%Obama2,370	59.5%Romney3,619	1.5%	R+20.5	R+1.3	R+24.4	6,080
2008	R	39.8%Obama2,391	59.0%McCain3,545	1.2%	R+19.2	D+7.2	R+26.5	6,006
2004	R	35.6%Kerry1,914	62.0%Bush3,336	2.4%	R+26.4	R+1.4	R+24.0	5,377
2000	R	35.6%Gore1,671	60.7%Bush2,844	1.8%Nader84	R+25.0	R+14.8	R+25.5	4,689
1996	R	39.7%Clinton1,704	49.8%Dole2,141	8.1%Perot350	R+10.2	D+3.2	R+18.7	4,297
1992	R	34.1%Clinton1,597	47.5%Bush2,224	16.4%Perot768	R+13.4	D+16.7	R+18.9	4,685
1988	R	33.9%Dukakis1,361	64.0%Bush2,571	2.1%	R+30.1	D+6.1	R+22.4	4,018
1984	R	31.0%Mondale1,206	67.2%Reagan2,612	1.7%	R+36.2	R+23.8	R+18.0	3,885
1980	R	41.7%Carter1,395	54.1%Reagan1,810	4.2%	R+12.4	R+2.7	R+2.7	3,344
1976	R	43.2%Carter1,312	52.9%Ford1,608	3.9%	R+9.7	D+38.3	R+11.8	3,039
1972	R	24.4%McGovern730	72.4%Nixon2,164	3.1%	R+48.0	R+36.5	R+24.9	2,987
1968	R	28.2%Humphrey575	39.6%Nixon809	32.2%	R+11.5	D+9.7	R+10.8	2,042
1964	R	39.4%Johnson3,238	60.5%Goldwater4,976	0.2%	R+21.1	R+3.4	R+43.7	8,227
1960	R	40.9%Kennedy574	58.7%Nixon823	0.4%	R+17.8	D+13.1	R+17.9	1,402
1956	R	27.2%Stevenson338	58.0%Eisenhower721	14.8%	R+30.8	R+14.6	R+15.4	1,243
1952	R	41.5%Stevenson507	57.7%Eisenhower705	0.7%	R+16.2	R+37.4	R+5.5	1,221
1948	D	52.0%Truman457	30.8%Dewey271	17.2%	D+21.2	R+32.9	D+16.7	879
1944	D	76.8%Roosevelt627	22.8%Dewey186	0.4%	D+54.0	R+10.6	D+46.6	816
1940	D	82.2%Roosevelt586	17.5%Willkie125	0.3%	D+64.7	R+3.2	D+54.7	713
1936	D	83.6%Roosevelt653	15.7%Landon123	0.6%	D+67.9	D+4.8	D+43.6	781
1932	D	80.2%Roosevelt595	17.1%Hoover127	2.7%	D+63.1	D+52.0	D+45.3	742
1928	D	55.5%Smith397	44.5%Hoover318	0.0%	D+11.0	R+57.8	D+28.5	715
1924	D	83.7%Davis438	14.9%Coolidge78	1.3%La Follette7	D+68.8	D+24.8	D+94.0	523
1920	D	71.9%Cox438	27.9%Harding170	0.2%	D+44.0	D+2.7	D+70.2	609
1916	D	70.6%Wilson373	29.4%Hughes155	0.0%	D+41.3	R+5.7	D+38.1	528
1912	D	71.4%Wilson374	24.4%Taft128	4.2%	D+46.9	D+3.8	D+27.4	524
1908	D	71.6%Bryan413	28.4%Taft164	0.0%	D+43.2	R+3.3	D+52.7	577
1904	D	72.9%Parker416	26.4%Roosevelt151	0.7%	D+46.4	D+43.0	D+66.1	571
1900	D	51.6%Bryan686	48.1%McKinley640	0.3%	D+3.5	D+2.9	D+11.0	1,330
1896	D	50.0%Bryan688	49.4%McKinley680	0.6%	D+0.6	D+3.9	D+6.7	1,376
1892	R	44.9%Cleveland271	48.2%Harrison291	7.0%	R+3.3	—	R+5.0	604
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	33.1%2,258	66.9%4,566	6,824
2018	R	35.1%1,800	64.9%3,328	5,128

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	37.6%2,570	62.4%4,265	6,835
2020Class II	R	39.4%Mark Warner2,658	60.5%Daniel Gade4,080	6,740
2018Class I	R	39.6%Tim Kaine2,031	58.8%Corey Stewart3,014	5,130
2014Class II	R	37.3%Mark Warner1,427	60.3%Ed Gillespie2,304	3,823
2012Class I	R	41.3%Tim Kaine2,455	58.6%George Allen3,489	5,949
2008Class II	D	56.3%Mark Warner3,325	42.5%Jim Gilmore2,510	5,906
2006Class I	R	39.8%Jim Webb1,724	59.0%George Allen2,556	4,330
2002Class II	R	0.0%None0	86.9%John Warner1,958	2,252
2000Class I	R	39.9%Chuck Robb1,841	60.1%George Allen2,777	4,618
1996Class II	R	42.9%Mark Warner1,728	57.1%John Warner2,299	4,029
1994Class I	R	39.1%Chuck Robb1,517	49.4%Oliver North1,915	3,877
1990Class II	R	0.0%None0	84.3%John Warner1,893	2,246
1988Class I	D	67.0%Chuck Robb2,454	33.0%Maurice A. Dawkins1,210	3,665
1984Class II	R	25.6%Edythe Harrison907	74.4%John Warner2,638	3,546
1982Class I	R	38.2%Dick Davis1,104	61.8%Paul S. Trible1,789	2,893
1978Class II	R	45.1%Andrew Miller1,227	54.9%John Warner1,495	2,722
1976Class I	D	26.8%Elmo Zumwalt724	0.0%None0	2,700
1972Class II	R	41.6%William B. Spong Jr.964	57.1%Bill Scott1,324	2,317
1970Class I	D	17.4%George C. Rawlings Jr.273	9.3%Ray Garland146	1,566
1966Class II	D	57.2%William B. Spong Jr.657	24.5%James P. Ould Jr.281	1,149
1964Class I	D	65.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,192	14.8%Richard A. May272	1,835
1960Class II	D	84.6%A. Willis Robertson1,020	0.0%None0	1,206
1958Class I	D	81.8%Harry F. Byrd Sr.898	0.0%None0	1,098
1954Class II	D	79.8%A. Willis Robertson352	0.0%None0	441
1952Class I	D	83.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.926	0.0%None0	1,113
1948Class II	D	76.0%A. Willis Robertson554	17.3%Robert H. Woods126	729
1946Class I	D	84.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.423	11.6%Lester S. Parsons58	500
1942Class II	D	93.5%Carter Glass173	0.0%None0	185
1940Class I	D	95.1%Harry F. Byrd Sr.581	0.0%None0	611
1936Class II	D	94.3%Carter Glass648	4.2%George Rohlson29	687
1934Class I	D	92.4%Harry F. Byrd Sr.242	5.0%Lawrence C. Page13	262
1930Class II	D	87.5%Carter Glass230	0.0%None0	263
1928Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson710	0.0%None0	710
1924Class II	D	95.3%Carter Glass464	0.8%William Doak4	487
1922Class I	D	95.5%Claude Swanson318	4.5%J.W. McGavock15	333
1918Class II	D	100.0%Thomas S. Martin152	0.0%None0	152
1916Class I	D	99.6%Claude Swanson567	0.0%None0	569

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1966Special · Class I	D	50.3%Harry F. Byrd Jr.588	31.1%Lawrence Traylor364	1,170
1933Special · Class I	D	80.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.295	17.7%Henry Wise65	368

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2025	R	38.5%Abigail Spanberger2,174	61.4%Winsome Earle-Sears3,473	5,653
2017	R	37.2%Ralph Northam1,606	61.9%Ed Gillespie2,673	4,320
2013	R	35.1%Terry McAuliffe1,375	54.4%Ken Cuccinelli2,131	3,918
2009	R	30.4%Creigh Deeds1,161	69.5%Bob McDonnell2,652	3,815
2005	R	40.2%Tim Kaine1,530	57.0%Jerry Kilgore2,167	3,802
2001	R	47.6%Mark Warner1,757	50.4%Mark Earley1,861	3,692
1997	R	36.8%Don Beyer1,401	59.9%Jim Gilmore2,279	3,802
1993	R	36.9%Mary Sue Terry1,326	62.1%George Allen2,233	3,593
1989	R	41.5%Douglas Wilder1,520	58.4%Marshall Coleman2,142	3,665
1985	D	51.4%Gerald Baliles1,500	48.6%Wyatt Durrette1,421	2,921
1981	D	52.1%Chuck Robb1,519	47.9%Marshall Coleman1,398	2,918
1977	R	40.7%Henry Howell1,001	58.8%John N. Dalton1,447	2,461

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Middlesex County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	7,898
2018	7,971
2020	8,457
2022	8,711
2024	8,965

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−17 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +844 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $82,012 in average income, against $85,051 for residents who stayed — 4% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+19.1 on average — 8.2 points more Democratic-leaning than Middlesex County, VA itself (R+27.3).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Gloucester County, VA50R+38.2
Henrico County, VA20D+28.7

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Gloucester County, VA48

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Middlesex County, VA in Middlesex County, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	−63
2012	+77
2013	−23
2014	−34
2015	+79
2016	+137
2017	−51
2018	+170
2019	−92
2021	+283
2022	+244
2023	+54
2024	+80
2025	−17

Middlesex County hugs the Rappahannock River where it meets the bay, and its small, predominantly white, aging population has delivered Republican presidential margins above 25 points in each of the last three cycles.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 68.8 points in 1924 and a Republican high of 48.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.3 points.

A population of 10,847, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,060 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Northumberland County and Lancaster County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Northumberland County

Virginia

88.7twin score

median ageAmerican ancestry12-yr trend≠ % Asian

Lancaster County

Virginia

76.1twin score

median ageAmerican ancestrypopulation scale≠ % unaffiliated

Pamlico County

North Carolina

73.6twin score

median agepopulation scale% Catholic≠ American ancestry

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Middlesex County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51119/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Embed this page

A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →

<iframe src="https://akashic.app/embed/county/51119/stat-card/" width="100%" height="200" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;max-width:560px" title="Middlesex County, VA — Akashic" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Middlesex County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Middlesex County, Virginia voted Republican by 27.3 points (R+27.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 6,907 votes cast, 2,473 went Democratic and 4,357 went Republican.

When did Middlesex County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Middlesex County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1948.

How many people live in Middlesex County, Virginia?

Middlesex County, Virginia has a population of 10,847 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Middlesex County, Virginia?

Median household income in Middlesex County, Virginia is $75,060 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Middlesex County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Middlesex County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.

Measure

Middlesex County

Virginia

United States

Median age

55.5

39.3

39.1

Age 18–24

4.0%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

34.1%

16.7%

17.2%

Measure

Middlesex County

Virginia

United States

Median household income

$75,060

$93,170

$84,427

Poverty rate

7.3%

10.0%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

33.8%

42.3%

35.6%

Measure

Middlesex County

Virginia

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

3.3%

17.5%

22.3%

Spanish

2.2%

7.9%

13.6%

Measure

Middlesex County

Virginia

United States

Catholic

4.6%

10.2%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

19.0%

19.9%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

61.9%

54.3%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

13.0%

8.4%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+27.3MIT Election Lab

Population

10,8472024 5-year

Median household income

$75,0602024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

77.6%2024 5-year

Black

15.8%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

3.2%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+68.8 in 1924MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+48.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Northumberland County, VA · twin score 88.7

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

6,072

9,030

67.2%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

5,173

8,965

57.7%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

6,829

8,885

76.9%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

5,182

8,920

58.1%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

6,960

9,007

77.3%

A/A

Middlesex County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -201 - NEW MARKET201 - NEW MARKET

432

1,098

1,540

28.1%

71.3%

R+43.2

Precinct -501 - WILTON501 - WILTON

476

1,000

1,496

31.8%

66.8%

R+35.0

Precinct -401 - HARMONY VILLAGE401 - HARMONY VILLAGE

503

767

1,293

38.9%

59.3%

R+20.4

Precinct -302 - CHURCH VIEW302 - CHURCH VIEW

525

712

1,246

42.1%

57.1%

R+15.0

Precinct -102 - URBANNA102 - URBANNA

324

487

818

39.6%

59.5%

R+19.9

Precinct -101 - SALUDA101 - SALUDA

213

293

514

41.4%

57.0%

R+15.6

Church View51119000302

—

No votes

Harmony Village51119000401

—

No votes

New Market51119000201

—

No votes

Saluda51119000101

—

No votes

Urbanna51119000102

—

No votes

Wilton51119000501

—

No votes

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−3.3%
1896	+0.6%
1900	+3.5%
1904	+46.4%
1908	+43.2%
1912	+46.9%
1916	+41.3%
1920	+44.0%
1924	+68.8%
1928	+11.0%
1932	+63.1%
1936	+67.9%
1940	+64.7%
1944	+54.0%
1948	+21.2%
1952	−16.2%
1956	−30.8%
1960	−17.8%
1964	−21.1%
1968	−11.5%
1972	−48.0%
1976	−9.7%
1980	−12.4%
1984	−36.2%
1988	−30.1%
1992	−13.4%
1996	−10.2%
2000	−25.0%
2004	−26.4%
2008	−19.2%
2012	−20.5%
2016	−26.0%
2020	−25.1%
2024	−27.3%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

35.8%Harris2,473

63.1%Trump4,357

0.3%Oliver24 +4

R+27.3

R+2.1

R+25.8

6,907

All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent

Donald J TrumpRepublican63.1%4,357
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic35.8%2,473
OtherAll other candidates0.4%25
Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%24
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%14
Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%10
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%4

2020

36.7%Biden2,491

61.8%Trump4,196

1.1%Jorgensen77

R+25.1

D+0.8

R+29.6

6,785

2016

35.0%Clinton2,108

61.0%Trump3,670

2.3%Johnson140

R+26.0

R+5.4

R+28.0

6,017

2012

39.0%Obama2,370

59.5%Romney3,619

1.5%

R+20.5

R+1.3

R+24.4

6,080

2008

39.8%Obama2,391

59.0%McCain3,545

1.2%

R+19.2

D+7.2

R+26.5

6,006

2004

35.6%Kerry1,914

62.0%Bush3,336

2.4%

R+26.4

R+1.4

R+24.0

5,377

2000

35.6%Gore1,671

60.7%Bush2,844

1.8%Nader84

R+25.0

R+14.8

R+25.5

4,689

1996

39.7%Clinton1,704

49.8%Dole2,141

8.1%Perot350

R+10.2

D+3.2

R+18.7

4,297

1992

34.1%Clinton1,597

47.5%Bush2,224

16.4%Perot768

R+13.4

D+16.7

R+18.9

4,685

1988

33.9%Dukakis1,361

64.0%Bush2,571

2.1%

R+30.1

D+6.1

R+22.4

4,018

1984

31.0%Mondale1,206

67.2%Reagan2,612

1.7%

R+36.2

R+23.8

R+18.0

3,885

1980

41.7%Carter1,395

54.1%Reagan1,810

4.2%

R+12.4

R+2.7

3,344

1976

43.2%Carter1,312

52.9%Ford1,608

3.9%

R+9.7

D+38.3

R+11.8

3,039

1972

24.4%McGovern730

72.4%Nixon2,164

3.1%

R+48.0

R+36.5

R+24.9

2,987

1968

28.2%Humphrey575

39.6%Nixon809

32.2%

R+11.5

D+9.7

R+10.8

2,042

1964

39.4%Johnson3,238

60.5%Goldwater4,976

0.2%

R+21.1

R+3.4

R+43.7

8,227

1960

40.9%Kennedy574

58.7%Nixon823

0.4%

R+17.8

D+13.1

R+17.9

1,402

1956

27.2%Stevenson338

58.0%Eisenhower721

14.8%

R+30.8

R+14.6

R+15.4

1,243

1952

41.5%Stevenson507

57.7%Eisenhower705

0.7%

R+16.2

R+37.4

R+5.5

1,221

1948

52.0%Truman457

30.8%Dewey271

17.2%

D+21.2

R+32.9

D+16.7

879

1944

76.8%Roosevelt627

22.8%Dewey186

0.4%

D+54.0

R+10.6

D+46.6

816

1940

82.2%Roosevelt586

17.5%Willkie125

0.3%

D+64.7

R+3.2

D+54.7

713

1936

83.6%Roosevelt653

15.7%Landon123

0.6%

D+67.9

D+4.8

D+43.6

781

1932

80.2%Roosevelt595

17.1%Hoover127

2.7%

D+63.1

D+52.0

D+45.3

742

1928

55.5%Smith397

44.5%Hoover318

0.0%

D+11.0

R+57.8

D+28.5

715

1924

83.7%Davis438

14.9%Coolidge78

1.3%La Follette7

D+68.8

D+24.8

D+94.0

523

1920

71.9%Cox438

27.9%Harding170

0.2%

D+44.0

D+2.7

D+70.2

609

1916

70.6%Wilson373

29.4%Hughes155

0.0%

D+41.3

R+5.7

D+38.1

528

1912

71.4%Wilson374

24.4%Taft128

4.2%

D+46.9

D+3.8

D+27.4

524

1908

71.6%Bryan413

28.4%Taft164

0.0%

D+43.2

R+3.3

D+52.7

577

1904

72.9%Parker416

26.4%Roosevelt151

0.7%

D+46.4

D+43.0

D+66.1

571

1900

51.6%Bryan686

48.1%McKinley640

0.3%

D+3.5

D+2.9

D+11.0

1,330

1896

50.0%Bryan688

49.4%McKinley680

0.6%

D+0.6

D+3.9

D+6.7

1,376

1892

44.9%Cleveland271

48.2%Harrison291

7.0%

R+3.3

—

R+5.0

604

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

33.1%2,258

66.9%4,566

6,824

2018

35.1%1,800

64.9%3,328

5,128

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

37.6%2,570

62.4%4,265

6,835

2020Class II

39.4%Mark Warner2,658

60.5%Daniel Gade4,080

6,740

2018Class I

39.6%Tim Kaine2,031

58.8%Corey Stewart3,014

5,130

2014Class II

37.3%Mark Warner1,427

60.3%Ed Gillespie2,304

3,823

2012Class I

41.3%Tim Kaine2,455

58.6%George Allen3,489

5,949

2008Class II

56.3%Mark Warner3,325

42.5%Jim Gilmore2,510

5,906

2006Class I

39.8%Jim Webb1,724

59.0%George Allen2,556

4,330

2002Class II

0.0%None0

86.9%John Warner1,958

2,252

2000Class I

39.9%Chuck Robb1,841

60.1%George Allen2,777

4,618

1996Class II

42.9%Mark Warner1,728

57.1%John Warner2,299

4,029

1994Class I

39.1%Chuck Robb1,517

49.4%Oliver North1,915

3,877

1990Class II

0.0%None0

84.3%John Warner1,893

2,246

1988Class I

67.0%Chuck Robb2,454

33.0%Maurice A. Dawkins1,210

3,665

1984Class II

25.6%Edythe Harrison907

74.4%John Warner2,638

3,546

1982Class I

38.2%Dick Davis1,104

61.8%Paul S. Trible1,789

2,893

1978Class II

45.1%Andrew Miller1,227

54.9%John Warner1,495

2,722

1976Class I

26.8%Elmo Zumwalt724

0.0%None0

2,700

1972Class II

41.6%William B. Spong Jr.964

57.1%Bill Scott1,324

2,317

1970Class I

17.4%George C. Rawlings Jr.273

9.3%Ray Garland146

1,566

1966Class II

57.2%William B. Spong Jr.657

24.5%James P. Ould Jr.281

1,149

1964Class I

65.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,192

14.8%Richard A. May272

1,835

1960Class II

84.6%A. Willis Robertson1,020

0.0%None0

1,206

1958Class I

81.8%Harry F. Byrd Sr.898

0.0%None0

1,098

1954Class II

79.8%A. Willis Robertson352

0.0%None0

441

1952Class I

83.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.926

0.0%None0

1,113

1948Class II

76.0%A. Willis Robertson554

17.3%Robert H. Woods126

729

1946Class I

84.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.423

11.6%Lester S. Parsons58

500

1942Class II

93.5%Carter Glass173

0.0%None0

185

1940Class I

95.1%Harry F. Byrd Sr.581

0.0%None0

611

1936Class II

94.3%Carter Glass648

4.2%George Rohlson29

687

1934Class I

92.4%Harry F. Byrd Sr.242

5.0%Lawrence C. Page13

262

1930Class II

87.5%Carter Glass230

0.0%None0

263

1928Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson710

0.0%None0

710

1924Class II

95.3%Carter Glass464

0.8%William Doak4

487

1922Class I

95.5%Claude Swanson318

4.5%J.W. McGavock15

333

1918Class II

100.0%Thomas S. Martin152

0.0%None0

152

1916Class I

99.6%Claude Swanson567

0.0%None0

569

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1966Special · Class I

50.3%Harry F. Byrd Jr.588

31.1%Lawrence Traylor364

1,170

1933Special · Class I

80.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.295

17.7%Henry Wise65

368

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2025

38.5%Abigail Spanberger2,174

61.4%Winsome Earle-Sears3,473

5,653

2017

37.2%Ralph Northam1,606

61.9%Ed Gillespie2,673

4,320

2013

35.1%Terry McAuliffe1,375

54.4%Ken Cuccinelli2,131

3,918

2009

30.4%Creigh Deeds1,161

69.5%Bob McDonnell2,652

3,815

2005

40.2%Tim Kaine1,530

57.0%Jerry Kilgore2,167

3,802

2001

47.6%Mark Warner1,757

50.4%Mark Earley1,861

3,692

1997

36.8%Don Beyer1,401

59.9%Jim Gilmore2,279

3,802

1993

36.9%Mary Sue Terry1,326

62.1%George Allen2,233

3,593

1989

41.5%Douglas Wilder1,520

58.4%Marshall Coleman2,142

3,665

1985

51.4%Gerald Baliles1,500

48.6%Wyatt Durrette1,421

2,921

1981

52.1%Chuck Robb1,519

47.9%Marshall Coleman1,398

2,918

1977

40.7%Henry Howell1,001

58.8%John N. Dalton1,447

2,461

Frequently asked questions

Voter registration in Middlesex County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	7,898
2018	7,971
2020	8,457
2022	8,711
2024	8,965

How did Middlesex County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Middlesex County, Virginia voted Republican by 27.3 points (R+27.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 6,907 votes cast, 2,473 went Democratic and 4,357 went Republican.

When did Middlesex County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Middlesex County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1948.

How many people live in Middlesex County, Virginia?

Middlesex County, Virginia has a population of 10,847 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Middlesex County, Virginia?

Median household income in Middlesex County, Virginia is $75,060 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Middlesex County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Middlesex County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.