- Lead
- 9,184
- Total
- 20,914
- vs nation
- R+42.4
- Turnout
- 82.5%
Powhatan County, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 82.5% of 25,474 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 8,735
- Total
- 19,730
- vs nation
- R+48.7
- Turnout
- 83.7%
- Lead
- 7,825
- Total
- 16,888
- vs nation
- R+48.4
- Turnout
- 75.2%
- Lead
- 7,112
- Total
- 15,525
- vs nation
- R+49.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,851
- Total
- 14,456
- vs nation
- R+47.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,843
- Total
- 12,163
- vs nation
- R+45.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,112
- Total
- 9,711
- vs nation
- R+42.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,425
- Total
- 7,643
- vs nation
- R+40.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 31,5552024 5-year
- Median household income
- $110,5372024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+58.6 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.9 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Nassau County, FL · twin score 89.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 82.5%21,006 participants ÷ 25,474 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +24.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +0.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 58.3%–65.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 16,920 | 22,511 | 75.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 15,053 | 23,046 | 65.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 19,802 | 23,653 | 83.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 14,733 | 24,718 | 59.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 21,006 | 25,474 | 82.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
24 precincts · 20,914 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -401 - POWHATAN COURTHOUSE401 - POWHATAN COURTHOUSE | 866 | 2,407 | 41 | 3,314 | 26.1% | 72.6% | R+46.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -301 - BETHESDA301 - BETHESDA | 668 | 1,824 | 30 | 2,522 | 26.5% | 72.3% | R+45.8 |
| Precinct -202 - GRACELAND202 - GRACELAND | 622 | 1,784 | 27 | 2,433 | 25.6% | 73.3% | R+47.8 |
| Precinct -302 - LEE'S LANDING302 - LEE'S LANDING | 743 | 1,541 | 33 | 2,317 | 32.1% | 66.5% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct -101 - SUBLETTS101 - SUBLETTS | 670 | 1,572 | 35 | 2,277 | 29.4% | 69.0% | R+39.6 |
| Precinct -102 - MANAKIN102 - MANAKIN | 652 | 1,189 | 27 | 1,868 | 34.9% | 63.7% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -201 - POWHATAN STATION201 - POWHATAN STATION | 401 | 1,399 | 17 | 1,817 | 22.1% | 77.0% | R+54.9 |
| Precinct -402 - MT ZION402 - MT ZION | 303 | 1,013 | 18 | 1,334 | 22.7% | 75.9% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -502 - PINEVILLE502 - PINEVILLE | 387 | 704 | 15 | 1,106 | 35.0% | 63.7% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -503 - TOBACCOVILLE503 - TOBACCOVILLE | 193 | 839 | 13 | 1,045 | 18.5% | 80.3% | R+61.8 |
| Precinct -103 - FLAT ROCK103 - FLAT ROCK | 229 | 646 | 6 | 881 | 26.0% | 73.3% | R+47.3 |
| Bethesda51145000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Flat Rock51145000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Graceland51145000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lee's Landing51145000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Manakin51145000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mt Zion51145000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pineville51145000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Powhatan Courthouse51145000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Powhatan Station51145000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -501 - SMITHS CROSSROADS501 - SMITHS CROSSROADS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Smith Cross Roads51145000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Subletts51145000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tobaccoville51145000503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −20.1% |
| 1896 | −9.3% |
| 1900 | −11.9% |
| 1904 | +21.1% |
| 1908 | +27.1% |
| 1912 | +30.0% |
| 1916 | +35.0% |
| 1920 | +30.3% |
| 1924 | +37.2% |
| 1928 | +20.6% |
| 1932 | +58.6% |
| 1936 | +47.0% |
| 1940 | +52.8% |
| 1944 | +33.3% |
| 1948 | +15.1% |
| 1952 | −5.6% |
| 1956 | −32.0% |
| 1960 | −18.9% |
| 1964 | +22.2% |
| 1968 | +10.6% |
| 1972 | −49.9% |
| 1976 | −13.3% |
| 1980 | −31.7% |
| 1984 | −47.7% |
| 1988 | −46.4% |
| 1992 | −26.6% |
| 1996 | −31.7% |
| 2000 | −42.3% |
| 2004 | −48.0% |
| 2008 | −40.5% |
| 2012 | −45.8% |
| 2016 | −46.3% |
| 2020 | −44.3% |
| 2024 | −43.9% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 20,942 |
| 2018 | 21,617 |
| 2020 | 23,159 |
| 2022 | 24,184 |
| 2024 | 25,338 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+247 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +3,387 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $90,618 in average income, against $119,851 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+11.2 on average — 55 points more Democratic-leaning than Powhatan County, VA itself (R+43.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Chesterfield County, VA365D+8.9
- Henrico County, VA91D+28.7
- Richmond city, VA56D+65.9
- Amelia County, VA37R+44.3
- Goochland County, VA27R+18.5
- Hanover County, VA26R+25.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Chesterfield County, VA213
- Henrico County, VA80
- Richmond city, VA54
- Cumberland County, VA36
- Amelia County, VA23
- Hanover County, VA20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −47 |
| 2012 | −12 |
| 2013 | +100 |
| 2014 | +152 |
| 2015 | −514 |
| 2016 | +353 |
| 2017 | +212 |
| 2018 | +495 |
| 2019 | +440 |
| 2021 | +831 |
| 2022 | +367 |
| 2023 | +514 |
| 2024 | +249 |
| 2025 | +247 |
Powhatan County, a largely rural exurb southwest of Richmond, delivered an R+44.1 presidential margin in 2024 — among the widest in a state where statewide races remain closely contested.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 58.6 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 49.9 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 43.9 points.
A population of 31,555, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $110,537 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Nassau County and Poquoson city.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Powhatan County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51145/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.