- Lead
- 36,371
- Total
- 136,422
- vs nation
- R+25.2
Virginia 10th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 30,733
- Total
- 128,960
- vs nation
- R+28.3
- Lead
- 28,590
- Total
- 111,154
- vs nation
- R+27.8
- Lead
- 23,170
- Total
- 106,201
- vs nation
- R+25.7
- Lead
- 18,045
- Total
- 101,204
- vs nation
- R+25.1
- Lead
- 23,438
- Total
- 85,262
- vs nation
- R+25.0
- Lead
- 16,774
- Total
- 71,848
- vs nation
- R+23.9
- Lead
- 8,435
- Total
- 60,382
- vs nation
- R+22.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+26.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 217,5212024 5-year
- Population density
- 68 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3,176 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $87,0422024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+65.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.5 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 3, VA · twin score 88.4
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 10th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
40.6%
41,062 votes · R+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 38.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
63.3%
53,986 votes · R+27.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 62.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
49,358votes
36.2% of the vote · R+26.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 48,053 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
85,729votes
62.8% of the vote · R+26.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 78,786 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
−25.0pts D vs U.S.
Place R+27.5 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · −25.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+28.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+23.8 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +27.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Virginia 10th State Senate District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 65.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 37.5 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 26.7 points.
A population of 217,521, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,042 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 3 and State Senate District 15.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 10th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/51010/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.