- Lead
- 3,646
- Total
- 19,742
- vs nation
- R+17.0
- Turnout
- 89.9%
Goochland County, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 89.9% of 22,037 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,281
- Total
- 16,950
- vs nation
- R+23.8
- Turnout
- 89.2%
- Lead
- 3,495
- Total
- 14,037
- vs nation
- R+27.0
- Turnout
- 80.5%
- Lead
- 3,772
- Total
- 13,315
- vs nation
- R+32.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,830
- Total
- 12,562
- vs nation
- R+29.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,085
- Total
- 10,338
- vs nation
- R+27.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,181
- Total
- 8,777
- vs nation
- R+25.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,335
- Total
- 7,425
- vs nation
- R+26.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 26,4102024 5-year
- Median household income
- $118,9312024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 13.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+63.7 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+29.8 in 2004MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- New Kent County, VA · twin score 85.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 89.9%19,814 participants ÷ 22,037 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +21.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 68.3%–75.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 14,106 | 17,527 | 80.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 13,352 | 18,103 | 73.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 17,019 | 19,079 | 89.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 13,842 | 20,490 | 67.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 19,814 | 22,037 | 89.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
21 precincts · 19,742 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000502-Blair000502-Blair | 1,081 | 1,426 | 70 | 2,577 | 41.9% | 55.3% | R+13.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000402-Centerville000402-Centerville | 1,007 | 1,508 | 52 | 2,567 | 39.2% | 58.7% | R+19.5 |
| Precinct -000301-Beaverdam000301-Beaverdam | 828 | 1,258 | 34 | 2,120 | 39.1% | 59.3% | R+20.3 |
| Precinct -000501-Manakin000501-Manakin | 756 | 1,262 | 40 | 2,058 | 36.7% | 61.3% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -000102-Hadensville000102-Hadensville | 646 | 1,228 | 23 | 1,897 | 34.1% | 64.7% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -000202-Sandy Hook000202-Sandy Hook | 720 | 971 | 35 | 1,726 | 41.7% | 56.3% | R+14.5 |
| Precinct -000201-Three Square000201-Three Square | 683 | 922 | 24 | 1,629 | 41.9% | 56.6% | R+14.7 |
| Precinct -000101-Fife000101-Fife | 508 | 965 | 20 | 1,493 | 34.0% | 64.6% | R+30.6 |
| Precinct -000302-Randolph000302-Randolph | 623 | 797 | 20 | 1,440 | 43.3% | 55.3% | R+12.1 |
| Precinct -000403-West Creek000403-West Creek | 702 | 503 | 18 | 1,223 | 57.4% | 41.1% | D+16.3 |
| Precinct -000401-Shallow Well000401-Shallow Well | 321 | 681 | 10 | 1,012 | 31.7% | 67.3% | R+35.6 |
| Blair Road51075000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Centerville51075000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fife51075000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Goochland Court House 151075000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Goochland Court House 251075000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hadensville51075000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Manakin51075000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sandy Hook51075000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shallow Well51075000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Three Square51075000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −11.0% |
| 1896 | −13.9% |
| 1900 | −18.5% |
| 1904 | +4.4% |
| 1908 | +8.8% |
| 1912 | +39.7% |
| 1916 | +36.0% |
| 1920 | +28.6% |
| 1924 | +38.5% |
| 1928 | +15.1% |
| 1932 | +57.2% |
| 1936 | +47.1% |
| 1940 | +63.7% |
| 1944 | +49.8% |
| 1948 | +34.3% |
| 1952 | +6.8% |
| 1956 | −16.1% |
| 1960 | +0.6% |
| 1964 | +7.8% |
| 1968 | +5.0% |
| 1972 | −25.0% |
| 1976 | +3.5% |
| 1980 | −2.7% |
| 1984 | −21.8% |
| 1988 | −25.9% |
| 1992 | −16.6% |
| 1996 | −18.0% |
| 2000 | −24.8% |
| 2004 | −29.8% |
| 2008 | −22.5% |
| 2012 | −28.3% |
| 2016 | −24.9% |
| 2020 | −19.4% |
| 2024 | −18.5% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 17,263 |
| 2018 | 18,211 |
| 2020 | 19,960 |
| 2022 | 21,318 |
| 2024 | 23,816 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,045 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +6,750 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $148,352 in average income, against $189,030 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+23.0 on average — 41 points more Democratic-leaning than Goochland County, VA itself (R+18.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Henrico County, VA512D+28.7
- Chesterfield County, VA147D+8.9
- Richmond city, VA111D+65.9
- Hanover County, VA76R+25.7
- Louisa County, VA47R+26.1
- Fairfax County, VA28D+34.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Henrico County, VA226
- Chesterfield County, VA83
- Richmond city, VA81
- Hanover County, VA58
- Louisa County, VA37
- Powhatan County, VA27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −366 |
| 2012 | −92 |
| 2013 | +306 |
| 2014 | +293 |
| 2015 | +330 |
| 2016 | +332 |
| 2017 | +240 |
| 2018 | +571 |
| 2019 | +569 |
| 2021 | +798 |
| 2022 | +660 |
| 2023 | +1,041 |
| 2024 | +1,023 |
| 2025 | +1,045 |
Goochland sits just west of Richmond's suburbs but remains sparsely settled, with a median household income well above the state average. Its 2024 presidential margin of R+18.6 reflects a pattern of exurban consolidation around a relatively affluent, predominantly white electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.7 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 29.8 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.9 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.5 points.
A population of 26,410, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $118,931 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of New Kent County and Hanover County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Goochland County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51075/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.