Akashic

county

Orange County, VA

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

English15.1%12.0%9.5%

Irish15.0%9.1%9.4%

German14.6%10.1%12.5%

American7.3%8.4%5.3%

Italian4.2%3.9%4.8%

Scottish2.1%1.9%1.3%

Scotch-Irish2.1%——

Polish2.0%1.6%2.2%

African American†8.8%15.6%9.9%

African0.4%0.9%0.5%

Kenyan0.4%——

South African0.3%——

Mexican2.0%2.4%11.3%

Puerto Rican1.2%1.4%1.8%

Spaniard0.9%——

Guatemalan0.5%0.7%0.5%

Salvadoran0.4%2.1%0.7%

Bolivian0.4%0.4%—

Colombian0.3%0.3%0.4%

Peruvian0.3%0.5%—

Pakistani0.3%0.5%—

Korean0.2%0.8%0.4%

Filipino0.1%0.9%0.9%

Vietnamese0.1%0.7%0.6%

Thai0.1%——

Laotian0.1%——

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Orange County	Virginia	United States
Median age	42.1	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	6.8%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	20.3%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Orange County	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$94,008	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	9.8%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	29.6%	42.3%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Orange County	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	6.6%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	3.4%	7.9%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Orange County	Virginia	United States
Catholic	1.2%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	31.9%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	59.4%	54.3%	51.5%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 77.8% of 28,902 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic37.0%8,274TrumpRepublican61.6%13,764OtherAll other candidates0.5%106

R+24.6

Lead: 5,490
Total: 22,353
vs nation: R+23.1
Turnout: 77.8%

BidenDemocratic38.5%7,995TrumpRepublican59.9%12,426JorgensenLibertarian1.3%267

R+21.4

Lead: 4,431
Total: 20,742
vs nation: R+25.8
Turnout: 74.5%

ClintonDemocratic34.5%5,957TrumpRepublican60.9%10,521JohnsonLibertarian2.3%399

R+26.4

Lead: 4,564
Total: 17,267
vs nation: R+28.5
Turnout: 65.7%

ObamaDemocratic42.0%6,870RomneyRepublican56.5%9,244OtherAll other candidates1.5%240

R+14.5

Lead: 2,374
Total: 16,354
vs nation: R+18.4
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic45.0%7,107McCainRepublican53.8%8,506OtherAll other candidates1.2%188

R+8.9

Lead: 1,399
Total: 15,801
vs nation: R+16.1
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic38.8%5,015BushRepublican59.9%7,749OtherAll other candidates1.3%164

R+21.1

Lead: 2,734
Total: 12,928
vs nation: R+18.7
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic39.4%4,126BushRepublican57.1%5,991NaderGreen2.3%236

R+17.8

Lead: 1,865
Total: 10,483
vs nation: R+18.3
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic40.3%3,590DoleRepublican49.8%4,435PerotReform8.4%750

R+9.5

Lead: 845
Total: 8,908
vs nation: R+18.0
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+24.6MIT Election Lab
Population: 37,8222024 5-year
Median household income: $94,0082024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 74.9%2024 5-year
Black: 10.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 7.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+69.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+44.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Spotsylvania County, VA · twin score 79.2

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 77.8%22,484 participants ÷ 28,902 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +16.8 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: -6.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 61.0%–64.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	17,375	26,461	65.7%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	15,078	26,993	55.9%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	20,910	28,063	74.5%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	16,273	28,212	57.7%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	22,484	28,902	77.8%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

22 precincts · 0 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Orange County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Five North51137000502	—	—	No votes
Five South51137000501	—	—	No votes
Four East51137000402	—	—	No votes
Four West51137000401	—	—	No votes
One East51137000102	—	—	No votes
One West51137000101	—	—	No votes
Precinct -101 - 1 WEST101 - 1 WEST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -102 - 1 EAST102 - 1 EAST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -103 - 1 TOWN103 - 1 TOWN	—	—	No votes
Precinct -201 - 2 WEST201 - 2 WEST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -202 - 2 EAST202 - 2 EAST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -301 - 3 WEST301 - 3 WEST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -302 - 3 EAST302 - 3 EAST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -303 - 3 TOWN303 - 3 TOWN	—	—	No votes
Precinct -401 - 4 WEST401 - 4 WEST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -402 - 4 EAST402 - 4 EAST	—	—	No votes
Precinct -501 - 5 SOUTH501 - 5 SOUTH	—	—	No votes
Precinct -502 - 5 NORTH502 - 5 NORTH	—	—	No votes
Three East51137000302	—	—	No votes
Three West51137000301	—	—	No votes
Two East51137000202	—	—	No votes
Two West51137000201	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+22.8%
1896	+15.9%
1900	+8.3%
1904	+47.1%
1908	+49.1%
1912	+69.5%
1916	+59.6%
1920	+47.1%
1924	+61.1%
1928	+7.2%
1932	+60.2%
1936	+50.4%
1940	+46.6%
1944	+26.6%
1948	+7.0%
1952	−24.8%
1956	−21.9%
1960	−11.7%
1964	−18.0%
1968	−23.2%
1972	−44.4%
1976	−4.7%
1980	−15.6%
1984	−32.2%
1988	−24.6%
1992	−8.3%
1996	−9.5%
2000	−17.8%
2004	−21.1%
2008	−8.9%
2012	−14.5%
2016	−26.4%
2020	−21.4%
2024	−24.6%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	37.0%Harris8,274	61.6%Trump13,764	0.4%Oliver100 +4	R+24.6	R+3.2	R+23.1	22,353
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican61.6%13,764 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic37.0%8,274 OtherAll other candidates0.5%106 Chase OliverLibertarian0.4%100 Jill SteinIndependent0.2%55 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%32 Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%22
2020	R	38.5%Biden7,995	59.9%Trump12,426	1.3%Jorgensen267	R+21.4	D+5.1	R+25.8	20,742
2016	R	34.5%Clinton5,957	60.9%Trump10,521	2.3%Johnson399	R+26.4	R+11.9	R+28.5	17,267
2012	R	42.0%Obama6,870	56.5%Romney9,244	1.5%	R+14.5	R+5.7	R+18.4	16,354
2008	R	45.0%Obama7,107	53.8%McCain8,506	1.2%	R+8.9	D+12.3	R+16.1	15,801
2004	R	38.8%Kerry5,015	59.9%Bush7,749	1.3%	R+21.1	R+3.4	R+18.7	12,928
2000	R	39.4%Gore4,126	57.1%Bush5,991	2.3%Nader236	R+17.8	R+8.3	R+18.3	10,483
1996	R	40.3%Clinton3,590	49.8%Dole4,435	8.4%Perot750	R+9.5	R+1.2	R+18.0	8,908
1992	R	37.3%Clinton3,348	45.6%Bush4,092	15.9%Perot1,425	R+8.3	D+16.3	R+13.9	8,966
1988	R	36.9%Dukakis2,592	61.6%Bush4,319	1.5%	R+24.6	D+7.6	R+16.9	7,015
1984	R	33.5%Mondale2,285	65.7%Reagan4,483	0.8%	R+32.2	R+16.6	R+14.0	6,821
1980	R	39.3%Carter2,420	54.9%Reagan3,381	5.8%	R+15.6	R+11.0	R+5.9	6,158
1976	R	44.7%Carter2,309	49.4%Ford2,549	5.9%	R+4.7	D+39.8	R+6.7	5,161
1972	R	27.1%McGovern884	71.6%Nixon2,332	1.3%	R+44.4	R+21.3	R+21.3	3,258
1968	R	24.0%Humphrey879	47.2%Nixon1,727	28.8%	R+23.2	R+5.2	R+22.5	3,661
1964	R	40.9%Johnson988	58.9%Goldwater1,423	0.3%	R+18.0	R+6.3	R+40.6	2,418
1960	R	42.6%Kennedy1,108	54.3%Nixon1,413	3.2%	R+11.7	D+10.2	R+11.9	2,603
1956	R	31.6%Stevenson794	53.5%Eisenhower1,344	14.8%	R+21.9	D+2.9	R+6.5	2,510
1952	R	37.3%Stevenson916	62.2%Eisenhower1,525	0.5%	R+24.8	R+31.8	R+14.1	2,453
1948	D	46.2%Truman856	39.2%Dewey726	14.6%	D+7.0	R+19.6	D+2.5	1,852
1944	D	63.2%Roosevelt1,199	36.6%Dewey694	0.2%	D+26.6	R+19.9	D+19.1	1,896
1940	D	72.9%Roosevelt1,283	26.4%Willkie464	0.7%	D+46.6	R+3.9	D+36.6	1,759
1936	D	75.0%Roosevelt1,227	24.6%Landon402	0.4%	D+50.4	R+9.8	D+26.2	1,636
1932	D	80.0%Roosevelt1,253	19.7%Hoover309	0.3%	D+60.2	D+53.0	D+42.5	1,567
1928	D	53.6%Smith846	46.4%Hoover732	0.0%	D+7.2	R+53.9	D+24.7	1,578
1924	D	78.1%Davis834	16.9%Coolidge181	5.0%La Follette53	D+61.1	D+14.1	D+86.3	1,068
1920	D	73.5%Cox718	26.4%Harding258	0.1%	D+47.1	R+12.5	D+73.3	977
1916	D	79.6%Wilson608	20.0%Hughes153	0.4%	D+59.6	R+10.0	D+56.4	764
1912	D	80.9%Wilson619	11.4%Taft87	7.7%	D+69.5	D+20.5	D+50.0	765
1908	D	74.0%Bryan587	25.0%Taft198	1.0%	D+49.1	D+1.9	D+58.6	793
1904	D	72.9%Parker568	25.8%Roosevelt201	1.3%	D+47.1	D+38.8	D+66.8	779
1900	D	53.7%Bryan1,100	45.4%McKinley929	0.9%	D+8.3	R+7.6	D+15.9	2,048
1896	D	57.4%Bryan1,324	41.5%McKinley957	1.0%	D+15.9	R+6.9	D+22.0	2,305
1892	D	59.7%Cleveland1,343	37.0%Harrison831	3.3%	D+22.8	—	D+21.1	2,248
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2018	R	40.6%6,007	59.4%8,797	14,804

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	39.6%8,725	60.4%13,289	22,014
2020Class II	R	40.8%Mark Warner8,392	59.1%Daniel Gade12,170	20,579
2018Class I	R	41.1%Tim Kaine6,148	57.4%Corey Stewart8,577	14,952
2014Class II	R	37.4%Mark Warner3,629	59.9%Ed Gillespie5,814	9,699
2012Class I	R	43.2%Tim Kaine6,972	56.4%George Allen9,114	16,148
2008Class II	D	59.8%Mark Warner9,275	39.0%Jim Gilmore6,050	15,513
2006Class I	R	42.4%Jim Webb4,294	56.6%George Allen5,738	10,136
2002Class II	R	0.0%None0	80.5%John Warner4,369	5,427
2000Class I	R	41.9%Chuck Robb4,363	58.1%George Allen6,052	10,415
1996Class II	R	44.6%Mark Warner3,755	55.4%John Warner4,662	8,422
1994Class I	R	40.5%Chuck Robb2,952	47.1%Oliver North3,433	7,294
1990Class II	R	0.0%None0	84.4%John Warner3,165	3,749
1988Class I	D	67.4%Chuck Robb4,377	32.5%Maurice A. Dawkins2,112	6,492
1984Class II	R	26.1%Edythe Harrison1,648	73.9%John Warner4,673	6,321
1982Class I	R	46.0%Dick Davis2,027	54.0%Paul S. Trible2,383	4,411
1978Class II	R	48.4%Andrew Miller1,911	51.6%John Warner2,034	3,945
1976Class I	D	30.4%Elmo Zumwalt1,401	0.0%None0	4,608
1972Class II	R	42.0%William B. Spong Jr.1,538	54.3%Bill Scott1,988	3,660
1970Class I	D	18.8%George C. Rawlings Jr.504	11.4%Ray Garland305	2,681
1966Class II	D	60.2%William B. Spong Jr.1,174	32.1%James P. Ould Jr.627	1,951
1964Class I	D	73.7%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,146	12.2%Richard A. May355	2,912
1960Class II	D	85.7%A. Willis Robertson1,971	0.0%None0	2,300
1958Class I	D	79.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,756	0.0%None0	2,216
1954Class II	D	82.7%A. Willis Robertson934	0.0%None0	1,129
1952Class I	D	80.8%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,948	0.0%None0	2,411
1948Class II	D	70.4%A. Willis Robertson1,176	27.0%Robert H. Woods452	1,671
1946Class I	D	76.8%Harry F. Byrd Sr.835	19.0%Lester S. Parsons207	1,087
1942Class II	D	93.9%Carter Glass635	0.0%None0	676
1940Class I	D	94.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,479	0.0%None0	1,574
1936Class II	D	93.8%Carter Glass1,341	4.3%George Rohlson61	1,430
1934Class I	D	87.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.573	10.0%Lawrence C. Page66	657
1930Class II	D	83.0%Carter Glass411	0.0%None0	495
1928Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson1,563	0.0%None0	1,563
1924Class II	D	86.3%Carter Glass844	1.6%William Doak16	978
1922Class I	D	96.1%Claude Swanson644	3.4%J.W. McGavock23	670
1918Class II	D	100.0%Thomas S. Martin334	0.0%None0	334
1916Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson822	0.0%None0	822

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1966Special · Class I	D	67.2%Harry F. Byrd Jr.1,324	24.4%Lawrence Traylor480	1,970
1933Special · Class I	D	81.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.645	17.5%Henry Wise139	796

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2025	R	42.5%Abigail Spanberger7,361	57.3%Winsome Earle-Sears9,938	17,332
2017	R	38.1%Ralph Northam4,160	61.0%Ed Gillespie6,653	10,915
2013	R	36.3%Terry McAuliffe3,629	55.6%Ken Cuccinelli5,561	9,995
2009	R	32.7%Creigh Deeds3,033	67.3%Bob McDonnell6,248	9,287
2005	R	45.5%Tim Kaine3,888	52.4%Jerry Kilgore4,481	8,551
2001	R	47.5%Mark Warner3,617	51.3%Mark Earley3,902	7,613
1997	R	36.6%Don Beyer2,443	61.8%Jim Gilmore4,124	6,678
1993	R	32.3%Mary Sue Terry2,133	66.8%George Allen4,409	6,603
1989	R	41.5%Douglas Wilder2,465	58.4%Marshall Coleman3,468	5,934
1985	D	51.4%Gerald Baliles2,243	48.6%Wyatt Durrette2,117	4,360
1981	D	50.6%Chuck Robb2,449	49.3%Marshall Coleman2,387	4,838
1977	R	39.5%Henry Howell1,644	59.9%John N. Dalton2,493	4,161

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Orange County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	24,025
2018	24,709
2020	26,753
2022	28,284
2024	30,055

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

+841 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +6,461 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $72,433 in average income, against $82,928 for residents who stayed — 13% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+0.5 on average — 24 points more Democratic-leaning than Orange County, VA itself (R+24.6).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Spotsylvania County, VA181R+8.5
Culpeper County, VA127R+24.9
Stafford County, VA97D+0.8
Albemarle County, VA88D+33.9
Prince William County, VA86D+17.9
Louisa County, VA79R+26.1

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Spotsylvania County, VA147
Louisa County, VA98
Culpeper County, VA86
Albemarle County, VA75
Greene County, VA65
Fredericksburg city, VA43

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Orange County, VA in Orange County, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+313
2012	+177
2013	+287
2014	+269
2015	+230
2016	+187
2017	+480
2018	+621
2019	+331
2021	+895
2022	+812
2023	+503
2024	+515
2025	+841

Orange County sits in Virginia's Piedmont foothills, where a predominantly rural, small-town electorate has delivered Republican presidential margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, resisting the suburban shifts reshaping counties closer to Northern Virginia.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 44.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.6 points.

A population of 37,822, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $94,008 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Spotsylvania County and King George County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Spotsylvania County

Virginia

79.2twin score

elasticity% unaffiliated2008–2012 trajectory≠ median income

King George County

Virginia

78.5twin score

elasticity% Catholic2020–2024 trajectory≠ median income

Fauquier County

Virginia

77.5twin score

elasticity% unaffiliated2020–2024 trajectory≠ median income

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Orange County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51137/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Orange County

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Orange County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Orange County, Virginia voted Republican by 24.6 points (R+24.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 22,353 votes cast, 8,274 went Democratic and 13,764 went Republican.

When did Orange County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Orange County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1948.

How many people live in Orange County, Virginia?

Orange County, Virginia has a population of 37,822 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Orange County, Virginia?

Median household income in Orange County, Virginia is $94,008 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Orange County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Orange County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 19 went Republican.

Measure

Orange County

Virginia

United States

Median age

42.1

39.3

39.1

Age 18–24

6.8%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

20.3%

16.7%

17.2%

Measure

Orange County

Virginia

United States

Median household income

$94,008

$93,170

$84,427

Poverty rate

9.8%

10.0%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

29.6%

42.3%

35.6%

Measure

Orange County

Virginia

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

6.6%

17.5%

22.3%

Spanish

3.4%

7.9%

13.6%

Measure

Orange County

Virginia

United States

Catholic

1.2%

10.2%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

31.9%

19.9%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

59.4%

54.3%

51.5%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+24.6MIT Election Lab

Population

37,8222024 5-year

Median household income

$94,0082024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

74.9%2024 5-year

Black

10.1%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

7.0%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+69.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+44.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Spotsylvania County, VA · twin score 79.2

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

17,375

26,461

65.7%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

15,078

26,993

55.9%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

20,910

28,063

74.5%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

16,273

28,212

57.7%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

22,484

28,902

77.8%

A/A

Orange County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Five North51137000502

—

No votes

Five South51137000501

—

No votes

Four East51137000402

—

No votes

Four West51137000401

—

No votes

One East51137000102

—

No votes

One West51137000101

—

No votes

Precinct -101 - 1 WEST101 - 1 WEST

—

No votes

Precinct -102 - 1 EAST102 - 1 EAST

—

No votes

Precinct -103 - 1 TOWN103 - 1 TOWN

—

No votes

Precinct -201 - 2 WEST201 - 2 WEST

—

No votes

Precinct -202 - 2 EAST202 - 2 EAST

—

No votes

Precinct -301 - 3 WEST301 - 3 WEST

—

No votes

Precinct -302 - 3 EAST302 - 3 EAST

—

No votes

Precinct -303 - 3 TOWN303 - 3 TOWN

—

No votes

Precinct -401 - 4 WEST401 - 4 WEST

—

No votes

Precinct -402 - 4 EAST402 - 4 EAST

—

No votes

Precinct -501 - 5 SOUTH501 - 5 SOUTH

—

No votes

Precinct -502 - 5 NORTH502 - 5 NORTH

—

No votes

Three East51137000302

—

No votes

Three West51137000301

—

No votes

Two East51137000202

—

No votes

Two West51137000201

—

No votes

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+22.8%
1896	+15.9%
1900	+8.3%
1904	+47.1%
1908	+49.1%
1912	+69.5%
1916	+59.6%
1920	+47.1%
1924	+61.1%
1928	+7.2%
1932	+60.2%
1936	+50.4%
1940	+46.6%
1944	+26.6%
1948	+7.0%
1952	−24.8%
1956	−21.9%
1960	−11.7%
1964	−18.0%
1968	−23.2%
1972	−44.4%
1976	−4.7%
1980	−15.6%
1984	−32.2%
1988	−24.6%
1992	−8.3%
1996	−9.5%
2000	−17.8%
2004	−21.1%
2008	−8.9%
2012	−14.5%
2016	−26.4%
2020	−21.4%
2024	−24.6%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

37.0%Harris8,274

61.6%Trump13,764

0.4%Oliver100 +4

R+24.6

R+3.2

R+23.1

22,353

All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent

Donald J TrumpRepublican61.6%13,764
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic37.0%8,274
OtherAll other candidates0.5%106
Chase OliverLibertarian0.4%100
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%55
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%32
Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%22

2020

38.5%Biden7,995

59.9%Trump12,426

1.3%Jorgensen267

R+21.4

D+5.1

R+25.8

20,742

2016

34.5%Clinton5,957

60.9%Trump10,521

2.3%Johnson399

R+26.4

R+11.9

R+28.5

17,267

2012

42.0%Obama6,870

56.5%Romney9,244

1.5%

R+14.5

R+5.7

R+18.4

16,354

2008

45.0%Obama7,107

53.8%McCain8,506

1.2%

R+8.9

D+12.3

R+16.1

15,801

2004

38.8%Kerry5,015

59.9%Bush7,749

1.3%

R+21.1

R+3.4

R+18.7

12,928

2000

39.4%Gore4,126

57.1%Bush5,991

2.3%Nader236

R+17.8

R+8.3

R+18.3

10,483

1996

40.3%Clinton3,590

49.8%Dole4,435

8.4%Perot750

R+9.5

R+1.2

R+18.0

8,908

1992

37.3%Clinton3,348

45.6%Bush4,092

15.9%Perot1,425

R+8.3

D+16.3

R+13.9

8,966

1988

36.9%Dukakis2,592

61.6%Bush4,319

1.5%

R+24.6

D+7.6

R+16.9

7,015

1984

33.5%Mondale2,285

65.7%Reagan4,483

0.8%

R+32.2

R+16.6

R+14.0

6,821

1980

39.3%Carter2,420

54.9%Reagan3,381

5.8%

R+15.6

R+11.0

R+5.9

6,158

1976

44.7%Carter2,309

49.4%Ford2,549

5.9%

R+4.7

D+39.8

R+6.7

5,161

1972

27.1%McGovern884

71.6%Nixon2,332

1.3%

R+44.4

R+21.3

3,258

1968

24.0%Humphrey879

47.2%Nixon1,727

28.8%

R+23.2

R+5.2

R+22.5

3,661

1964

40.9%Johnson988

58.9%Goldwater1,423

0.3%

R+18.0

R+6.3

R+40.6

2,418

1960

42.6%Kennedy1,108

54.3%Nixon1,413

3.2%

R+11.7

D+10.2

R+11.9

2,603

1956

31.6%Stevenson794

53.5%Eisenhower1,344

14.8%

R+21.9

D+2.9

R+6.5

2,510

1952

37.3%Stevenson916

62.2%Eisenhower1,525

0.5%

R+24.8

R+31.8

R+14.1

2,453

1948

46.2%Truman856

39.2%Dewey726

14.6%

D+7.0

R+19.6

D+2.5

1,852

1944

63.2%Roosevelt1,199

36.6%Dewey694

0.2%

D+26.6

R+19.9

D+19.1

1,896

1940

72.9%Roosevelt1,283

26.4%Willkie464

0.7%

D+46.6

R+3.9

D+36.6

1,759

1936

75.0%Roosevelt1,227

24.6%Landon402

0.4%

D+50.4

R+9.8

D+26.2

1,636

1932

80.0%Roosevelt1,253

19.7%Hoover309

0.3%

D+60.2

D+53.0

D+42.5

1,567

1928

53.6%Smith846

46.4%Hoover732

0.0%

D+7.2

R+53.9

D+24.7

1,578

1924

78.1%Davis834

16.9%Coolidge181

5.0%La Follette53

D+61.1

D+14.1

D+86.3

1,068

1920

73.5%Cox718

26.4%Harding258

0.1%

D+47.1

R+12.5

D+73.3

977

1916

79.6%Wilson608

20.0%Hughes153

0.4%

D+59.6

R+10.0

D+56.4

764

1912

80.9%Wilson619

11.4%Taft87

7.7%

D+69.5

D+20.5

D+50.0

765

1908

74.0%Bryan587

25.0%Taft198

1.0%

D+49.1

D+1.9

D+58.6

793

1904

72.9%Parker568

25.8%Roosevelt201

1.3%

D+47.1

D+38.8

D+66.8

779

1900

53.7%Bryan1,100

45.4%McKinley929

0.9%

D+8.3

R+7.6

D+15.9

2,048

1896

57.4%Bryan1,324

41.5%McKinley957

1.0%

D+15.9

R+6.9

D+22.0

2,305

1892

59.7%Cleveland1,343

37.0%Harrison831

3.3%

D+22.8

—

D+21.1

2,248

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2018

40.6%6,007

59.4%8,797

14,804

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

39.6%8,725

60.4%13,289

22,014

2020Class II

40.8%Mark Warner8,392

59.1%Daniel Gade12,170

20,579

2018Class I

41.1%Tim Kaine6,148

57.4%Corey Stewart8,577

14,952

2014Class II

37.4%Mark Warner3,629

59.9%Ed Gillespie5,814

9,699

2012Class I

43.2%Tim Kaine6,972

56.4%George Allen9,114

16,148

2008Class II

59.8%Mark Warner9,275

39.0%Jim Gilmore6,050

15,513

2006Class I

42.4%Jim Webb4,294

56.6%George Allen5,738

10,136

2002Class II

0.0%None0

80.5%John Warner4,369

5,427

2000Class I

41.9%Chuck Robb4,363

58.1%George Allen6,052

10,415

1996Class II

44.6%Mark Warner3,755

55.4%John Warner4,662

8,422

1994Class I

40.5%Chuck Robb2,952

47.1%Oliver North3,433

7,294

1990Class II

0.0%None0

84.4%John Warner3,165

3,749

1988Class I

67.4%Chuck Robb4,377

32.5%Maurice A. Dawkins2,112

6,492

1984Class II

26.1%Edythe Harrison1,648

73.9%John Warner4,673

6,321

1982Class I

46.0%Dick Davis2,027

54.0%Paul S. Trible2,383

4,411

1978Class II

48.4%Andrew Miller1,911

51.6%John Warner2,034

3,945

1976Class I

30.4%Elmo Zumwalt1,401

0.0%None0

4,608

1972Class II

42.0%William B. Spong Jr.1,538

54.3%Bill Scott1,988

3,660

1970Class I

18.8%George C. Rawlings Jr.504

11.4%Ray Garland305

2,681

1966Class II

60.2%William B. Spong Jr.1,174

32.1%James P. Ould Jr.627

1,951

1964Class I

73.7%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,146

12.2%Richard A. May355

2,912

1960Class II

85.7%A. Willis Robertson1,971

0.0%None0

2,300

1958Class I

79.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,756

0.0%None0

2,216

1954Class II

82.7%A. Willis Robertson934

0.0%None0

1,129

1952Class I

80.8%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,948

0.0%None0

2,411

1948Class II

70.4%A. Willis Robertson1,176

27.0%Robert H. Woods452

1,671

1946Class I

76.8%Harry F. Byrd Sr.835

19.0%Lester S. Parsons207

1,087

1942Class II

93.9%Carter Glass635

0.0%None0

676

1940Class I

94.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,479

0.0%None0

1,574

1936Class II

93.8%Carter Glass1,341

4.3%George Rohlson61

1,430

1934Class I

87.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.573

10.0%Lawrence C. Page66

657

1930Class II

83.0%Carter Glass411

0.0%None0

495

1928Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson1,563

0.0%None0

1,563

1924Class II

86.3%Carter Glass844

1.6%William Doak16

978

1922Class I

96.1%Claude Swanson644

3.4%J.W. McGavock23

670

1918Class II

100.0%Thomas S. Martin334

0.0%None0

334

1916Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson822

0.0%None0

822

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1966Special · Class I

67.2%Harry F. Byrd Jr.1,324

24.4%Lawrence Traylor480

1,970

1933Special · Class I

81.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.645

17.5%Henry Wise139

796

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2025

42.5%Abigail Spanberger7,361

57.3%Winsome Earle-Sears9,938

17,332

2017

38.1%Ralph Northam4,160

61.0%Ed Gillespie6,653

10,915

2013

36.3%Terry McAuliffe3,629

55.6%Ken Cuccinelli5,561

9,995

2009

32.7%Creigh Deeds3,033

67.3%Bob McDonnell6,248

9,287

2005

45.5%Tim Kaine3,888

52.4%Jerry Kilgore4,481

8,551

2001

47.5%Mark Warner3,617

51.3%Mark Earley3,902

7,613

1997

36.6%Don Beyer2,443

61.8%Jim Gilmore4,124

6,678

1993

32.3%Mary Sue Terry2,133

66.8%George Allen4,409

6,603

1989

41.5%Douglas Wilder2,465

58.4%Marshall Coleman3,468

5,934

1985

51.4%Gerald Baliles2,243

48.6%Wyatt Durrette2,117

4,360

1981

50.6%Chuck Robb2,449

49.3%Marshall Coleman2,387

4,838

1977

39.5%Henry Howell1,644

59.9%John N. Dalton2,493

4,161

Frequently asked questions

Voter registration in Orange County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	24,025
2018	24,709
2020	26,753
2022	28,284
2024	30,055

How did Orange County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Orange County, Virginia voted Republican by 24.6 points (R+24.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 22,353 votes cast, 8,274 went Democratic and 13,764 went Republican.

When did Orange County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Orange County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1948.

How many people live in Orange County, Virginia?

Orange County, Virginia has a population of 37,822 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Orange County, Virginia?

Median household income in Orange County, Virginia is $94,008 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Orange County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Orange County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 19 went Republican.