Arlington, Virginia
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +36.3% |
| 2008 | +44.7% |
| 2012 | +39.8% |
| 2016 | +59.2% |
| 2020 | +63.5% |
| 2024 | +58.1% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 77.5%Harris100,448 | 19.5%Trump25,222 | 3.0% | D+58.1 | R+5.5 | D+59.5 | 129,554 | |
| D | 80.6%Biden105,344 | 17.1%Trump22,318 | 2.3% | D+63.5 | D+4.3 | D+59.1 | 130,699 | |
| D | 75.8%Clinton92,016 | 16.6%Trump20,186 | 7.5% | D+59.2 | D+19.4 | D+57.1 | 121,339 | |
| D | 69.1%Obama81,149 | 29.3%Romney34,430 | 1.6% | D+39.8 | R+4.9 | D+35.9 | 117,441 | |
| D | 71.9%Obama79,000 | 27.2%McCain29,880 | 0.9% | D+44.7 | D+8.4 | D+37.4 | 109,906 | |
| D | 67.6%Kerry63,987 | 31.3%Bush29,635 | 1.1% | D+36.3 | — | D+38.8 | 94,650 |
Arlington's electorate skews heavily toward white-collar professionals tied to the federal government and defense contracting sectors, producing some of Virginia's most lopsided margins in statewide contests. Its urban density and high educational attainment set it apart from most suburban jurisdictions.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.5 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 5.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 58.1 points.
A population of 236,254, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $142,114 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Alexandria and Reston.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Arlington, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/5103000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.