- Lead
- 67,768
- Total
- 115,156
- vs nation
- D+60.3
Virginia 40th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 74,900
- Total
- 117,185
- vs nation
- D+59.5
- Lead
- 64,956
- Total
- 108,636
- vs nation
- D+57.7
- Lead
- 42,698
- Total
- 105,123
- vs nation
- D+36.8
- Lead
- 44,698
- Total
- 98,523
- vs nation
- D+38.1
- Lead
- 31,422
- Total
- 84,571
- vs nation
- D+39.6
- Lead
- 20,026
- Total
- 74,574
- vs nation
- D+26.3
- Lead
- 17,976
- Total
- 67,267
- vs nation
- D+18.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+58.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 211,4312024 5-year
- Population density
- 9,273 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 22.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $144,0402024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 16.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+63.9 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+43.3 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 39, VA · twin score 97.0
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 40th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
80.8%
94,686 votes · D+63.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 78.4%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
30.9%
26,117 votes · D+37.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 28.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
94,686votes
80.8% of the vote · D+63.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 90,237 votes
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
30,385votes
28.9% of the vote · D+40.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 26,337 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+60.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+58.8 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +59.5 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
−36.8pts R vs U.S.
Place D+40.6 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −38.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Covering rural and small-town communities west of the Blue Ridge, this district backed the Republican presidential nominee by 9.2 points in 2024, reflecting a broader rightward trend across Virginia's interior valleys over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.9 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 43.3 points in 1876. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 58.8 points.
A population of 211,431, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $144,040 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 39 and State Senate District 34.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 40th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/51040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.