HarrisDemocratic45.0%16,664TrumpRepublican52.9%19,574OtherAll other candidates0.8%308
R+7.9- Lead
- 2,910
- Total
- 37,023
- vs nation
- R+6.4
- Turnout
- 59.9%
Akashiccounty
Lynchburg city, VA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 59.9% of 61,945 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic49.6%18,048TrumpRepublican47.0%17,097JorgensenLibertarian2.4%857
D+2.6- Lead
- 951
- Total
- 36,363
- vs nation
- R+1.8
- Turnout
- 57.8%
ClintonDemocratic41.5%14,792TrumpRepublican50.4%17,982JohnsonLibertarian3.9%1,379
R+8.9- Lead
- 3,190
- Total
- 35,657
- vs nation
- R+11.0
- Turnout
- 59.0%
ObamaDemocratic43.8%15,948RomneyRepublican54.3%19,806OtherAll other candidates1.9%694
R+10.6- Lead
- 3,858
- Total
- 36,448
- vs nation
- R+14.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic47.4%16,269McCainRepublican51.4%17,638OtherAll other candidates1.3%434
R+4.0- Lead
- 1,369
- Total
- 34,341
- vs nation
- R+11.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.5%11,727BushRepublican54.7%14,400OtherAll other candidates0.8%213
R+10.1- Lead
- 2,673
- Total
- 26,340
- vs nation
- R+7.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic44.1%10,374BushRepublican53.3%12,518NaderGreen1.9%441
R+9.1- Lead
- 2,144
- Total
- 23,506
- vs nation
- R+9.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.7%10,281DoleRepublican49.7%11,441PerotReform5.0%1,155
R+5.0- Lead
- 1,160
- Total
- 23,012
- vs nation
- R+13.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 79,4972024 5-year
- Median household income
- $57,9472024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 27.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+74.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54.3 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Forrest County, MS · twin score 88.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.9%37,113 participants ÷ 61,945 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 40.6%–42.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 35,925 | 60,841 | 59.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 27,121 | 61,829 | 43.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 36,630 | 63,349 | 57.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 23,890 | 62,083 | 38.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 37,113 | 61,945 | 59.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
36 precincts · 0 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| First Ward Fifth Precinct51680000105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Ward First Precinct51680000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| First Ward Fourth Precinct51680000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| First Ward Second Precinct51680000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| First Ward Third Precinct51680000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fourth Ward First Precinct51680000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fourth Ward Fourth Precinct51680000404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fourth Ward Second Precinct51680000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fourth Ward Third Precinct51680000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -101 - W1- P1101 - W1- P1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -102 - W1- P2102 - W1- P2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -103 - W1- P3103 - W1- P3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -104 - W1- P4104 - W1- P4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -105 - W1- P5105 - W1- P5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -201 - W2- P1201 - W2- P1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -202 - W2- P2202 - W2- P2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -203 - W2- P3203 - W2- P3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -204 - W2- P4204 - W2- P4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -301 - W3- P1301 - W3- P1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -302 - W3- P2302 - W3- P2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -303 - W3- P3303 - W3- P3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -304 - W3- P4304 - W3- P4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -305 - W3- P5305 - W3- P5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -401 - W4- P1401 - W4- P1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -402 - W4- P2402 - W4- P2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -403 - W4- P3403 - W4- P3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -404 - W4- P4404 - W4- P4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Second Ward First Precinct51680000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Second Ward Fourth Precinct51680000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Second Ward Second Precinct51680000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Second Ward Third Precinct51680000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Third Ward Fifth Precinct51680000305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Third Ward First Precinct51680000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Third Ward Fourth Precinct51680000304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Third Ward Second Precinct51680000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Third Ward Third Precinct51680000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +27.9% |
| 1896 | +0.3% |
| 1900 | +24.0% |
| 1904 | +54.0% |
| 1908 | +33.7% |
| 1912 | +74.8% |
| 1916 | +60.4% |
| 1920 | +54.4% |
| 1924 | +52.5% |
| 1928 | −15.8% |
| 1932 | +49.8% |
| 1936 | +45.6% |
| 1940 | +40.6% |
| 1944 | +28.4% |
| 1948 | +1.6% |
| 1952 | −29.6% |
| 1956 | −32.8% |
| 1960 | −18.8% |
| 1964 | −19.5% |
| 1968 | −30.8% |
| 1972 | −54.3% |
| 1976 | −26.6% |
| 1980 | −30.6% |
| 1984 | −35.5% |
| 1988 | −29.4% |
| 1992 | −11.7% |
| 1996 | −5.0% |
| 2000 | −9.1% |
| 2004 | −10.1% |
| 2008 | −4.0% |
| 2012 | −10.6% |
| 2016 | −8.9% |
| 2020 | +2.6% |
| 2024 | −7.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | R | 49.3%13,191 | 50.7%13,579 | 26,770 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 57,048 |
| 2018 | 53,235 |
| 2020 | 55,666 |
| 2022 | 55,964 |
| 2024 | 59,371 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+612 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +1,786 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,647 in average income, against $74,750 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+37.1 on average — 29 points more Republican-leaning than Lynchburg city, VA itself (R+7.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Campbell County, VA489R+48.4
- Bedford County, VA418R+50.1
- Amherst County, VA199R+36.4
- Appomattox County, VA62R+50.8
- Pittsylvania County, VA57R+43.1
- Fairfax County, VA39D+34.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Campbell County, VA588
- Bedford County, VA434
- Amherst County, VA236
- Appomattox County, VA80
- Pittsylvania County, VA51
- Roanoke city, VA49
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +674 |
| 2012 | +250 |
| 2013 | +194 |
| 2014 | −397 |
| 2015 | +444 |
| 2016 | −100 |
| 2017 | +158 |
| 2018 | +197 |
| 2019 | +248 |
| 2021 | −201 |
| 2022 | −215 |
| 2023 | −37 |
| 2024 | −41 |
| 2025 | +612 |
Lynchburg's presidential margin has narrowed notably over recent cycles, reflecting demographic shifts at Liberty University and a growing healthcare and education workforce that has gradually reshaped the electorate in this historically conservative independent city.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 74.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 54.3 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 10.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.9 points.
A population of 79,497, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,947 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Forrest County and Oktibbeha County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Forrest County
Mississippi
88.1twin score
median age% unaffiliated% Evangelical≠ American ancestry
Oktibbeha County
Mississippi
86.8twin score
median age2020–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated
Jefferson County
Alabama
86.1twin score
12-yr trend2020 margin% Evangelical≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lynchburg city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51680/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Lynchburg city
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Frequently asked questions
How did Lynchburg city, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lynchburg city, Virginia voted Republican by 7.9 points (R+7.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 37,023 votes cast, 16,664 went Democratic and 19,574 went Republican.
When did Lynchburg city, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lynchburg city, Virginia voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Lynchburg city, Virginia?
Lynchburg city, Virginia has a population of 79,497 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lynchburg city, Virginia?
Median household income in Lynchburg city, Virginia is $57,947 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Lynchburg city, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lynchburg city, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 19 went Republican.