- Lead
- 1,341
- Total
- 5,885
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- 63.3%
Lunenburg County, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.3% of 9,325 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,119
- Total
- 6,000
- vs nation
- R+23.1
- Turnout
- 62.0%
- Lead
- 977
- Total
- 5,586
- vs nation
- R+19.6
- Turnout
- 56.7%
- Lead
- 285
- Total
- 5,734
- vs nation
- R+8.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 197
- Total
- 5,650
- vs nation
- R+10.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 496
- Total
- 5,245
- vs nation
- R+7.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 484
- Total
- 4,591
- vs nation
- R+11.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 68
- Total
- 4,460
- vs nation
- R+10.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+22.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 12,0162024 5-year
- Median household income
- $54,8422024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 57.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 32.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+88.6 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Nottoway County, VA · twin score 94.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.3%5,903 participants ÷ 9,325 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 45.7%–49.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,589 | 9,860 | 56.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,511 | 9,703 | 46.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 6,010 | 9,693 | 62.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,113 | 9,255 | 44.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,903 | 9,325 | 63.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
22 precincts · 5,885 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -601 - HOUND'S CREEK601 - HOUND'S CREEK | 442 | 618 | 5 | 1,065 | 41.5% | 58.0% | R+16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -201 - BROWN'S STORE201 - BROWN'S STORE | 416 | 568 | 5 | 989 | 42.1% | 57.4% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -101 - PLYMOUTH101 - PLYMOUTH | 238 | 660 | 7 | 905 | 26.3% | 72.9% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct -402 - PLEASANT GROVE402 - PLEASANT GROVE | 230 | 519 | 6 | 755 | 30.5% | 68.7% | R+38.3 |
| Precinct -502 - PEOPLE'S COMMUNITY CENTER502 - PEOPLE'S COMMUNITY CENTER | 391 | 254 | 2 | 647 | 60.4% | 39.3% | D+21.2 |
| Precinct -501 - REEDY CREEK501 - REEDY CREEK | 261 | 337 | 4 | 602 | 43.4% | 56.0% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -701 - MEHERRIN FIRE DEPARTMENT701 - MEHERRIN FIRE DEPARTMENT | 189 | 340 | 8 | 537 | 35.2% | 63.3% | R+28.1 |
| Precinct -401 - ARROWHEAD GUN CLUB401 - ARROWHEAD GUN CLUB | 86 | 298 | 1 | 385 | 22.3% | 77.4% | R+55.1 |
| Arrowhead Gun Club51111000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Browns Store51111000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Flat Rock51111000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hounds Creek51111000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Meherrin Fire Department51111000701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Peoples Community Center51111000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pleasant Grove51111000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plymouth51111000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -301 - ROSEBUD BAPTIST CHURCH301 - ROSEBUD BAPTIST CHURCH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -302 - MCCOY GHEE'S STORE302 - MCCOY GHEE'S STORE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -702 - COURTHOUSE702 - COURTHOUSE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Reedy Creek51111000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rosebud51111000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Victoria Public Library51111000702 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +35.5% |
| 1896 | +37.3% |
| 1900 | +29.8% |
| 1904 | +62.3% |
| 1908 | +59.3% |
| 1912 | +70.4% |
| 1916 | +75.1% |
| 1920 | +58.9% |
| 1924 | +53.7% |
| 1928 | +58.5% |
| 1932 | +84.1% |
| 1936 | +88.6% |
| 1940 | +78.7% |
| 1944 | +73.3% |
| 1948 | +50.9% |
| 1952 | +29.1% |
| 1956 | +22.7% |
| 1960 | +25.8% |
| 1964 | +11.7% |
| 1968 | −0.0% |
| 1972 | −40.4% |
| 1976 | −2.1% |
| 1980 | −2.1% |
| 1984 | −21.2% |
| 1988 | −14.7% |
| 1992 | −3.0% |
| 1996 | −1.5% |
| 2000 | −10.5% |
| 2004 | −9.5% |
| 2008 | −3.5% |
| 2012 | −5.0% |
| 2016 | −17.5% |
| 2020 | −18.6% |
| 2024 | −22.8% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 7,939 |
| 2018 | 7,861 |
| 2020 | 8,061 |
| 2022 | 8,084 |
| 2024 | 8,275 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+38 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −312 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $44,522 in average income, against $56,598 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+14.7 on average — 8.1 points more Democratic-leaning than Lunenburg County, VA itself (R+22.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Mecklenburg County, VA38R+20.8
- Nottoway County, VA32R+22.3
- Chesterfield County, VA20D+8.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Mecklenburg County, VA28
- Nottoway County, VA27
- Charlotte County, VA24
- Brunswick County, VA21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +7 |
| 2012 | −288 |
| 2013 | −77 |
| 2014 | −8 |
| 2015 | −154 |
| 2016 | −35 |
| 2017 | +15 |
| 2018 | −90 |
| 2019 | +17 |
| 2021 | +90 |
| 2022 | +49 |
| 2023 | +73 |
| 2024 | +51 |
| 2025 | +38 |
Lunenburg sits in Virginia's Southside tobacco belt, where a shrinking but stable population has shifted steadily toward Republican presidential candidates over the past two decades, reaching a 22.8-point margin in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 88.6 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 40.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 22.8 points.
A population of 12,016, a 57% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,842 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Nottoway County and Jasper County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lunenburg County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51111/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.