- Lead
- 2,426
- Total
- 39,749
- vs nation
- R+4.6
- Turnout
- 74.5%
York County, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 74.5% of 53,201 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,558
- Total
- 38,787
- vs nation
- R+11.0
- Turnout
- 77.4%
- Lead
- 5,838
- Total
- 34,113
- vs nation
- R+19.2
- Turnout
- 70.7%
- Lead
- 7,021
- Total
- 33,953
- vs nation
- R+24.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,133
- Total
- 33,897
- vs nation
- R+25.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 9,120
- Total
- 29,880
- vs nation
- R+28.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,690
- Total
- 24,583
- vs nation
- R+27.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,665
- Total
- 20,738
- vs nation
- R+26.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 71,0052024 5-year
- Median household income
- $109,9562024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 66.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 13.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+65.8 in 1916MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+53.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Douglas County, CO · twin score 93.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 74.5%39,649 participants ÷ 53,201 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.4 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.1%–57.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 34,328 | 48,534 | 70.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 29,307 | 49,216 | 59.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 39,062 | 50,451 | 77.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 28,170 | 52,129 | 54.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 39,649 | 53,201 | 74.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
26 precincts · 39,749 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -102 - WALLER MILL102 - WALLER MILL | 1,954 | 1,726 | 62 | 3,742 | 52.2% | 46.1% | D+6.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -103 - MAGRUDER103 - MAGRUDER | 2,153 | 1,375 | 51 | 3,579 | 60.2% | 38.4% | D+21.7 |
| Precinct -201 - COVENTRY201 - COVENTRY | 1,728 | 1,730 | 89 | 3,547 | 48.7% | 48.8% | R+0.1 |
| Precinct -301 - SEAFORD301 - SEAFORD | 979 | 2,498 | 43 | 3,520 | 27.8% | 71.0% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -402 - DARE402 - DARE | 1,294 | 2,109 | 65 | 3,468 | 37.3% | 60.8% | R+23.5 |
| Precinct -501 - TABB501 - TABB | 1,522 | 1,860 | 76 | 3,458 | 44.0% | 53.8% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -502 - BETHEL502 - BETHEL | 1,723 | 1,654 | 73 | 3,450 | 49.9% | 47.9% | D+2.0 |
| Precinct -401 - HARWOODS MILL401 - HARWOODS MILL | 1,223 | 2,009 | 65 | 3,297 | 37.1% | 60.9% | R+23.8 |
| Precinct -202 - KILN CREEK202 - KILN CREEK | 1,270 | 1,344 | 58 | 2,672 | 47.5% | 50.3% | R+2.8 |
| Precinct -303 - EDGEHILL303 - EDGEHILL | 1,402 | 1,173 | 50 | 2,625 | 53.4% | 44.7% | D+8.7 |
| Precinct -403 - GRAFTON403 - GRAFTON | 982 | 1,337 | 31 | 2,350 | 41.8% | 56.9% | R+15.1 |
| Precinct -101 - QUEENS LAKE101 - QUEENS LAKE | 1,225 | 932 | 41 | 2,198 | 55.7% | 42.4% | D+13.3 |
| Precinct -302 - YORKTOWN302 - YORKTOWN | 841 | 975 | 27 | 1,843 | 45.6% | 52.9% | R+7.3 |
| Bethel51199000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Coventry51199000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dare51199000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Edgehill51199000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Grafton51199000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Harwoods Mill51199000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kiln Creek51199000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Magruder51199000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Queens Lake51199000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Seaford51199000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tabb51199000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waller Mill51199000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Yorktown51199000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −19.3% |
| 1896 | +51.9% |
| 1900 | −6.7% |
| 1904 | +41.9% |
| 1908 | +54.3% |
| 1912 | +63.9% |
| 1916 | +65.8% |
| 1920 | +50.1% |
| 1924 | +58.2% |
| 1928 | −53.6% |
| 1932 | +18.4% |
| 1936 | +50.7% |
| 1940 | +62.2% |
| 1944 | +40.3% |
| 1948 | +29.7% |
| 1952 | −1.8% |
| 1956 | −23.7% |
| 1960 | −10.4% |
| 1964 | +37.1% |
| 1968 | −10.8% |
| 1972 | −20.8% |
| 1976 | −8.3% |
| 1980 | −18.2% |
| 1984 | −42.9% |
| 1988 | −40.7% |
| 1992 | −19.9% |
| 1996 | −17.7% |
| 2000 | −27.2% |
| 2004 | −30.5% |
| 2008 | −18.1% |
| 2012 | −20.7% |
| 2016 | −17.1% |
| 2020 | −6.6% |
| 2024 | −6.1% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 45,789 |
| 2018 | 46,212 |
| 2020 | 49,034 |
| 2022 | 50,620 |
| 2024 | 53,435 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−30 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +19 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $70,852 in average income, against $108,142 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+19.0 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than York County, VA itself (R+6.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Newport News city, VA609D+28.7
- Hampton city, VA313D+39.8
- James City County, VA265D+6.2
- Williamsburg city, VA93D+44.3
- Gloucester County, VA92R+38.2
- Virginia Beach city, VA66D+2.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Newport News city, VA561
- James City County, VA280
- Hampton city, VA225
- Williamsburg city, VA110
- Gloucester County, VA100
- Virginia Beach city, VA75
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +209 |
| 2012 | −488 |
| 2013 | −282 |
| 2014 | +64 |
| 2015 | +694 |
| 2016 | −481 |
| 2017 | −289 |
| 2018 | −278 |
| 2019 | +171 |
| 2021 | +855 |
| 2022 | −9 |
| 2023 | −314 |
| 2024 | +197 |
| 2025 | −30 |
Home to Naval Weapons Station Yorktown and straddling the York River, this small Tidewater county leans modestly Republican but has trended competitive as Hampton Roads suburbs grow more diverse and transient.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 65.8 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 53.6 points in 1928. The 2024 margin was 6.1 points.
A population of 71,005, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $109,956 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Douglas County and Delaware County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
York County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51199/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.