- Lead
- 660
- Total
- 41,929
- vs nation
- D+3.0
Virginia 86th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 743
- Total
- 42,644
- vs nation
- R+2.7
- Lead
- 2,248
- Total
- 39,749
- vs nation
- R+7.7
- Lead
- 1,478
- Total
- 40,781
- vs nation
- R+7.5
- Lead
- 2,040
- Total
- 41,519
- vs nation
- R+12.2
- Lead
- 8,909
- Total
- 36,764
- vs nation
- R+21.8
- Lead
- 6,792
- Total
- 31,577
- vs nation
- R+22.0
- Lead
- 4,444
- Total
- 28,513
- vs nation
- R+24.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+1.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,5672024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,848 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 46.3 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $87,1992024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 23.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+70.2 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 89, VA · twin score 85.9
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 86th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
50.1%
20,995 votes · D+1.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 49.8%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
61.8%
22,704 votes · R+24.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 51.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
21,240votes
49.8% of the vote · D+1.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 20,995 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
22,704votes
61.8% of the vote · R+24.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 21,563 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+3.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+1.6 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −2.7 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+21.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+24.2 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +12.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Sitting at the competitive edge of Northern Virginia's suburban sprawl, this district has trended toward single-digit margins as population growth reshapes its electorate. Its 2024 presidential result of D+1.6 places it among the state's most closely watched legislative seats.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 70.2 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 54.8 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 1.6 points.
A population of 85,567, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,199 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 89 and State House District 75.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 86th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51086/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.