- Lead
- 9,517
- Total
- 13,119
- vs nation
- D+74.0
- Turnout
- 53.1%
Petersburg city, VA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 53.1% of 24,861 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 10,805
- Total
- 14,118
- vs nation
- D+72.1
- Turnout
- 59.4%
- Lead
- 10,570
- Total
- 13,786
- vs nation
- D+74.6
- Turnout
- 56.3%
- Lead
- 12,756
- Total
- 15,908
- vs nation
- D+76.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 12,191
- Total
- 15,540
- vs nation
- D+71.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 7,444
- Total
- 11,949
- vs nation
- D+64.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,642
- Total
- 11,062
- vs nation
- D+59.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,844
- Total
- 10,890
- vs nation
- D+45.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+72.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 33,5372024 5-year
- Median household income
- $50,6982024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 14.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 74.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+84.2 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+23.6 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Macon County, AL · twin score 96.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 53.1%13,196 participants ÷ 24,861 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +28.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +4.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 25.1%–32.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 13,965 | 24,816 | 56.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 10,433 | 24,362 | 42.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 14,153 | 23,822 | 59.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,951 | 25,274 | 31.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 13,196 | 24,861 | 53.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
14 precincts · 13,119 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -301 - THIRD WARD FIRST PRECINCT301 - THIRD WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,938 | 459 | 43 | 2,440 | 79.4% | 18.8% | D+60.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -201 - SECOND WARD FIRST PRECINCT201 - SECOND WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,862 | 220 | 20 | 2,102 | 88.6% | 10.5% | D+78.1 |
| Precinct -701 - SEVENTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT701 - SEVENTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,731 | 205 | 37 | 1,973 | 87.7% | 10.4% | D+77.3 |
| Precinct -401 - FOURTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT401 - FOURTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,454 | 321 | 30 | 1,805 | 80.6% | 17.8% | D+62.8 |
| Precinct -601 - SIXTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT601 - SIXTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,558 | 118 | 9 | 1,685 | 92.5% | 7.0% | D+85.5 |
| Precinct -501 - FIFTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT501 - FIFTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,360 | 172 | 30 | 1,562 | 87.1% | 11.0% | D+76.1 |
| Precinct -101 - FIRST WARD FIRST PRECINCT101 - FIRST WARD FIRST PRECINCT | 1,316 | 207 | 29 | 1,552 | 84.8% | 13.3% | D+71.5 |
| Fifth Ward First Precinct51730000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| First Ward First Precinct51730000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fourth Ward First Precinct51730000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Second Ward First Precinct51730000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Seventh Ward First Precinct51730000701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sixth Ward First Precinct51730000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Third Ward First Precinct51730000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +41.9% |
| 1896 | +36.1% |
| 1900 | +39.3% |
| 1904 | +72.6% |
| 1908 | +62.8% |
| 1912 | +84.2% |
| 1916 | +74.9% |
| 1920 | +61.8% |
| 1924 | +69.2% |
| 1928 | +20.5% |
| 1932 | +58.6% |
| 1936 | +65.9% |
| 1940 | +56.4% |
| 1944 | +51.6% |
| 1948 | +21.7% |
| 1952 | −9.3% |
| 1956 | −23.6% |
| 1960 | +2.2% |
| 1964 | +16.3% |
| 1968 | +18.3% |
| 1972 | −12.9% |
| 1976 | +21.5% |
| 1980 | +22.1% |
| 1984 | +23.2% |
| 1988 | +31.3% |
| 1992 | +43.6% |
| 1996 | +53.7% |
| 2000 | +60.0% |
| 2004 | +62.3% |
| 2008 | +78.4% |
| 2012 | +80.2% |
| 2016 | +76.7% |
| 2020 | +76.5% |
| 2024 | +72.5% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 22,537 |
| 2018 | 22,486 |
| 2020 | 22,947 |
| 2022 | 23,722 |
| 2024 | 24,699 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−406 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −2,655 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $37,481 in average income, against $42,613 for residents who stayed — 12% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+12.3 on average — 60 points more Republican-leaning than Petersburg city, VA itself (D+72.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Chesterfield County, VA399D+8.9
- Richmond city, VA228D+65.9
- Prince George County, VA168R+21.3
- Hopewell city, VA113D+13.7
- Henrico County, VA108D+28.7
- Dinwiddie County, VA97R+23.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Chesterfield County, VA356
- Prince George County, VA176
- Richmond city, VA136
- Dinwiddie County, VA130
- Hopewell city, VA119
- Colonial Heights city, VA106
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −610 |
| 2012 | −358 |
| 2013 | +151 |
| 2014 | −185 |
| 2015 | −346 |
| 2016 | −501 |
| 2017 | −321 |
| 2018 | −297 |
| 2019 | +85 |
| 2021 | −79 |
| 2022 | −64 |
| 2023 | −281 |
| 2024 | +557 |
| 2025 | −406 |
Petersburg's electorate, roughly 80% Black, delivered a 72-point margin in 2024—among the widest of any jurisdiction in the commonwealth. The independent city's vote consistently anchors Democratic tallies in the Richmond metro's southern fringe.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 84.2 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 23.6 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 72.5 points.
A population of 33,537, a 14% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,698 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Macon County and Portsmouth city.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Petersburg city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51730/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.