Akashic

county

Carroll County, VA

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

American30.2%8.4%5.3%

English20.7%12.0%9.5%

Irish11.2%9.1%9.4%

German7.7%10.1%12.5%

Scottish2.1%1.9%1.3%

Italian1.9%3.9%4.8%

Scotch-Irish1.9%——

Welsh0.8%——

Mexican2.5%2.4%11.3%

Honduran0.6%0.7%0.3%

Salvadoran0.4%2.1%0.7%

Colombian0.2%0.3%0.4%

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Carroll County	Virginia	United States
Median age	49.4	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	6.7%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	26.2%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Carroll County	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$54,484	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	15.3%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	16.9%	42.3%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Carroll County	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	4.0%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	3.2%	7.9%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Carroll County	Virginia	United States
Catholic	0.6%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	25.3%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	59.5%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	11.7%	8.4%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 68.6% of 23,676 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic18.1%2,925TrumpRepublican81.2%13,152OtherAll other candidates0.2%40

R+63.1

Lead: 10,227
Total: 16,200
vs nation: R+61.7
Turnout: 68.6%

BidenDemocratic18.2%2,842TrumpRepublican80.9%12,659JorgensenLibertarian0.8%118

R+62.7

Lead: 9,817
Total: 15,651
vs nation: R+67.2
Turnout: 65.1%

ClintonDemocratic18.7%2,559TrumpRepublican78.1%10,663JohnsonLibertarian1.6%220

R+59.3

Lead: 8,104
Total: 13,655
vs nation: R+61.4
Turnout: 58.0%

ObamaDemocratic28.5%3,685RomneyRepublican67.6%8,736OtherAll other candidates3.8%497

R+39.1

Lead: 5,051
Total: 12,918
vs nation: R+43.0
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic32.7%4,109McCainRepublican65.1%8,187OtherAll other candidates2.2%283

R+32.4

Lead: 4,078
Total: 12,579
vs nation: R+39.7
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic32.1%3,888BushRepublican67.4%8,173OtherAll other candidates0.6%67

R+35.3

Lead: 4,285
Total: 12,128
vs nation: R+32.9
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic33.1%3,638BushRepublican64.9%7,142NaderGreen1.1%126

R+31.9

Lead: 3,504
Total: 11,001
vs nation: R+32.4
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic36.2%3,611DoleRepublican51.0%5,088PerotReform11.6%1,158

R+14.8

Lead: 1,477
Total: 9,969
vs nation: R+23.3
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+63.1MIT Election Lab
Population: 29,1572024 5-year
Median household income: $54,4842024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 93.2%2024 5-year
Black: 0.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 4.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+17.6 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+63.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Grayson County, VA · twin score 95.8

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 68.6%16,245 participants ÷ 23,676 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +21.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: -2.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 46.9%–51.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	13,749	23,692	58.0%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	10,703	23,822	44.9%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	15,726	24,154	65.1%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	10,209	23,521	43.4%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	16,245	23,676	68.6%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

33 precincts · 16,200 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Carroll County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -301 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCT C301 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCT C	435	1,836	18	2,289	19.0%	80.2%	R+61.2
Precinct -402 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT D402 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT D	324	1,567	19	1,910	17.0%	82.0%	R+65.1
Precinct -401 - OAKLAND PRECINCT401 - OAKLAND PRECINCT	284	1,380	13	1,677	16.9%	82.3%	R+65.4
Precinct -502 - GLADEVILLE PRECINCT502 - GLADEVILLE PRECINCT	253	1,256	9	1,518	16.7%	82.7%	R+66.1
Precinct -105 - FANCY GAP PRECINCT105 - FANCY GAP PRECINCT	253	815	12	1,080	23.4%	75.5%	R+52.0
Precinct -203 - GLADESBORO PRECINCT203 - GLADESBORO PRECINCT	214	851	9	1,074	19.9%	79.2%	R+59.3
Precinct -102 - ST PAUL PRECINCT102 - ST PAUL PRECINCT	182	877	2	1,061	17.2%	82.7%	R+65.5
Precinct -504 - LAUREL PRECINCT504 - LAUREL PRECINCT	137	707	11	855	16.0%	82.7%	R+66.7
Precinct -302 - SYLVATUS PRECINCT302 - SYLVATUS PRECINCT	133	693	7	833	16.0%	83.2%	R+67.2
Precinct -503 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT E503 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT E	151	633	4	788	19.2%	80.3%	R+61.2
Precinct -202 - LAUREL FORK PRECINCT202 - LAUREL FORK PRECINCT	167	603	11	781	21.4%	77.2%	R+55.8
Precinct -101 - MT BETHEL PRECINCT101 - MT BETHEL PRECINCT	138	575	5	718	19.2%	80.1%	R+60.9
Precinct -103 - LAMBSBURG PRECINCT103 - LAMBSBURG PRECINCT	95	536	0	631	15.1%	84.9%	R+69.9
Precinct -501 - VAUGHAN PRECINCT501 - VAUGHAN PRECINCT	68	475	1	544	12.5%	87.3%	R+74.8
Precinct -303 - DUGSPUR PRECINCT303 - DUGSPUR PRECINCT	91	348	2	441	20.6%	78.9%	R+58.3
Dugspur51035000303	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Fancy Gap51035000105	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Gladesboro51035000203	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Gladeville51035000502	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Hillsville B51035000201	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Hillsville C51035000301	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Lambsburg51035000103	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Laurel51035000504	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Laurel Fork51035000202	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Mt Bethel51035000101	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Oakland51035000401	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Precinct -201 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCTB201 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCTB	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
St Paul51035000102	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Sylvatus51035000302	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Vaughan51035000501	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Woodlawn D51035000402	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Woodlawn E51035000503	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Woodlawn F51035000406	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+17.6%
1896	−4.5%
1900	−10.1%
1904	−18.2%
1908	−27.8%
1912	−5.5%
1916	−24.8%
1920	−33.1%
1924	−16.1%
1928	−37.5%
1932	+2.5%
1936	−20.9%
1940	−8.5%
1944	−26.2%
1948	−33.7%
1952	−37.5%
1956	−39.8%
1960	−32.8%
1964	−17.9%
1968	−41.0%
1972	−52.4%
1976	−9.0%
1980	−25.6%
1984	−41.2%
1988	−33.1%
1992	−17.2%
1996	−14.8%
2000	−31.9%
2004	−35.3%
2008	−32.4%
2012	−39.1%
2016	−59.3%
2020	−62.7%
2024	−63.1%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	18.1%Harris2,925	81.2%Trump13,152	0.2%Oliver32 +4	R+63.1	R+0.4	R+61.7	16,200
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican81.2%13,152 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic18.1%2,925 OtherAll other candidates0.2%40 Chase OliverLibertarian0.2%32 Jill SteinIndependent0.2%28 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%13 Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%10
2020	R	18.2%Biden2,842	80.9%Trump12,659	0.8%Jorgensen118	R+62.7	R+3.4	R+67.2	15,651
2016	R	18.7%Clinton2,559	78.1%Trump10,663	1.6%Johnson220	R+59.3	R+20.2	R+61.4	13,655
2012	R	28.5%Obama3,685	67.6%Romney8,736	3.8%	R+39.1	R+6.7	R+43.0	12,918
2008	R	32.7%Obama4,109	65.1%McCain8,187	2.2%	R+32.4	D+2.9	R+39.7	12,579
2004	R	32.1%Kerry3,888	67.4%Bush8,173	0.6%	R+35.3	R+3.5	R+32.9	12,128
2000	R	33.1%Gore3,638	64.9%Bush7,142	1.1%Nader126	R+31.9	R+17.0	R+32.4	11,001
1996	R	36.2%Clinton3,611	51.0%Dole5,088	11.6%Perot1,158	R+14.8	D+2.4	R+23.3	9,969
1992	R	34.7%Clinton3,790	51.9%Bush5,664	12.7%Perot1,388	R+17.2	D+15.9	R+22.7	10,915
1988	R	33.1%Dukakis3,190	66.2%Bush6,377	0.7%	R+33.1	D+8.2	R+25.3	9,637
1984	R	29.0%Mondale2,914	70.3%Reagan7,056	0.7%	R+41.2	R+15.6	R+23.0	10,042
1980	R	35.7%Carter3,437	61.3%Reagan5,905	3.0%	R+25.6	R+16.6	R+15.9	9,634
1976	R	44.7%Carter4,010	53.7%Ford4,820	1.5%	R+9.0	D+43.4	R+11.1	8,968
1972	R	22.6%McGovern1,583	75.1%Nixon5,247	2.3%	R+52.4	R+11.4	R+29.3	6,989
1968	R	23.2%Humphrey1,773	64.2%Nixon4,909	12.7%	R+41.0	R+23.1	R+40.3	7,651
1964	R	41.0%Johnson2,517	58.9%Goldwater3,617	0.2%	R+17.9	D+14.9	R+40.5	6,146
1960	R	33.5%Kennedy1,873	66.3%Nixon3,705	0.2%	R+32.8	D+7.0	R+32.9	5,589
1956	R	29.8%Stevenson1,739	69.7%Eisenhower4,060	0.5%	R+39.8	R+2.3	R+24.4	5,828
1952	R	31.1%Stevenson1,711	68.7%Eisenhower3,774	0.2%	R+37.5	R+3.8	R+26.8	5,495
1948	R	32.0%Truman1,196	65.7%Dewey2,456	2.3%	R+33.7	R+7.5	R+38.2	3,737
1944	R	36.9%Roosevelt1,375	63.1%Dewey2,352	0.1%	R+26.2	R+17.7	R+33.7	3,729
1940	R	45.7%Roosevelt1,546	54.2%Willkie1,835	0.1%	R+8.5	D+12.4	R+18.5	3,386
1936	R	39.5%Roosevelt2,122	60.5%Landon3,245	0.0%	R+20.9	R+23.4	R+45.2	5,368
1932	D	50.8%Roosevelt1,537	48.3%Hoover1,461	0.9%	D+2.5	D+40.0	R+15.3	3,026
1928	R	31.2%Smith1,117	68.8%Hoover2,459	0.0%	R+37.5	R+21.4	R+20.1	3,576
1924	R	41.7%Davis1,257	57.8%Coolidge1,743	0.5%La Follette14	R+16.1	D+17.0	D+9.1	3,016
1920	R	33.4%Cox1,265	66.5%Harding2,520	0.2%	R+33.1	R+8.3	R+6.9	3,791
1916	R	37.6%Wilson858	62.4%Hughes1,424	0.0%	R+24.8	R+19.3	R+27.9	2,282
1912	R	38.5%Wilson765	44.0%Taft874	17.6%	R+5.5	D+22.3	R+25.0	1,988
1908	R	36.1%Bryan859	63.9%Taft1,521	0.0%	R+27.8	R+9.6	R+18.3	2,380
1904	R	40.8%Parker874	59.0%Roosevelt1,265	0.2%	R+18.2	R+8.1	D+1.4	2,143
1900	R	44.8%Bryan1,434	54.9%McKinley1,759	0.3%	R+10.1	R+5.6	R+2.6	3,203
1896	R	47.6%Bryan1,528	52.2%McKinley1,673	0.2%	R+4.5	R+22.1	D+1.6	3,207
1892	D	57.8%Cleveland1,450	40.2%Harrison1,008	2.0%	D+17.6	—	D+16.0	2,508
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	18.2%2,937	81.8%13,217	16,154
2018	R	24.1%2,551	75.9%8,052	10,603

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	22.8%3,637	77.2%12,318	15,955
2020Class II	R	23.6%Mark Warner3,591	76.3%Daniel Gade11,610	15,215
2018Class I	R	23.2%Tim Kaine2,459	75.7%Corey Stewart8,042	10,620
2014Class II	R	32.1%Mark Warner2,265	65.0%Ed Gillespie4,587	7,054
2012Class I	R	32.1%Tim Kaine4,075	67.7%George Allen8,596	12,689
2008Class II	D	55.3%Mark Warner6,737	43.1%Jim Gilmore5,247	12,178
2006Class I	R	37.7%Jim Webb3,442	60.8%George Allen5,549	9,129
2002Class II	R	0.0%None0	83.1%John Warner5,308	6,386
2000Class I	R	35.2%Chuck Robb3,754	64.8%George Allen6,919	10,673
1996Class II	R	49.8%Mark Warner4,696	50.2%John Warner4,727	9,423
1994Class I	R	32.2%Chuck Robb2,818	57.8%Oliver North5,067	8,763
1990Class II	R	0.0%None0	78.7%John Warner3,683	4,682
1988Class I	D	59.5%Chuck Robb5,161	40.5%Maurice A. Dawkins3,506	8,667
1984Class II	R	23.7%Edythe Harrison2,187	76.3%John Warner7,022	9,209
1982Class I	R	42.9%Dick Davis3,082	57.1%Paul S. Trible4,110	7,192
1978Class II	R	41.4%Andrew Miller2,673	58.6%John Warner3,783	6,456
1976Class I	D	35.6%Elmo Zumwalt2,566	0.0%None0	7,209
1972Class II	R	32.0%William B. Spong Jr.2,066	66.6%Bill Scott4,301	6,456
1970Class I	R	31.2%George C. Rawlings Jr.1,530	50.4%Ray Garland2,473	4,910
1966Class II	R	27.9%William B. Spong Jr.1,356	70.2%James P. Ould Jr.3,406	4,854
1964Class I	R	38.3%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,050	49.3%Richard A. May2,633	5,346
1960Class II	D	68.1%A. Willis Robertson1,926	0.0%None0	2,828
1958Class I	D	65.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,154	0.0%None0	1,776
1954Class II	D	71.2%A. Willis Robertson834	0.0%None0	1,172
1952Class I	D	72.1%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,870	0.0%None0	3,980
1948Class II	R	35.6%A. Willis Robertson1,218	62.7%Robert H. Woods2,141	3,417
1946Class I	R	46.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,019	50.5%Lester S. Parsons1,115	2,206
1942Class II	D	80.2%Carter Glass498	0.0%None0	621
1940Class I	D	86.5%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,641	0.0%None0	1,898
1936Class II	D	85.9%Carter Glass1,985	7.1%George Rohlson163	2,311
1934Class I	D	55.9%Harry F. Byrd Sr.893	41.8%Lawrence C. Page668	1,597
1930Class II	D	91.1%Carter Glass511	0.0%None0	561
1928Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson2,993	0.0%None0	2,993
1924Class II	D	48.3%Carter Glass1,217	3.9%William Doak99	2,519
1922Class I	D	58.9%Claude Swanson1,405	37.7%J.W. McGavock899	2,387
1918Class II	D	100.0%Thomas S. Martin413	0.0%None0	413
1916Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson1,094	0.0%None0	1,094

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1966Special · Class I	R	26.1%Harry F. Byrd Jr.1,257	70.2%Lawrence Traylor3,384	4,822
1933Special · Class I	R	47.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,052	51.2%Henry Wise1,131	2,209

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2025	R	21.4%Abigail Spanberger2,433	78.3%Winsome Earle-Sears8,889	11,348
2017	R	22.2%Ralph Northam1,838	76.9%Ed Gillespie6,363	8,275
2013	R	27.7%Terry McAuliffe2,182	64.2%Ken Cuccinelli5,061	7,878
2009	R	27.0%Creigh Deeds1,932	73.0%Bob McDonnell5,229	7,166
2005	R	38.9%Tim Kaine2,942	59.2%Jerry Kilgore4,485	7,571
2001	R	42.3%Mark Warner3,309	57.2%Mark Earley4,481	7,830
1997	R	31.2%Don Beyer2,136	66.4%Jim Gilmore4,549	6,850
1993	R	32.0%Mary Sue Terry2,577	67.4%George Allen5,424	8,051
1989	R	32.5%Douglas Wilder2,375	67.5%Marshall Coleman4,926	7,301
1985	R	45.1%Gerald Baliles2,687	54.9%Wyatt Durrette3,276	5,963
1981	R	43.1%Chuck Robb3,053	56.9%Marshall Coleman4,033	7,086
1977	R	35.0%Henry Howell2,275	63.9%John N. Dalton4,152	6,497

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Carroll County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	19,392
2018	19,406
2020	20,701
2022	21,071
2024	22,065

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

+332 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +1,957 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $47,933 in average income, against $57,000 for residents who stayed — 16% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+52.1 on average — 11 points more Democratic-leaning than Carroll County, VA itself (R+63.1).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Galax city, VA123R+43.8
Grayson County, VA59R+62.1
Surry County, NC58R+53.2
Wythe County, VA48R+59.4

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Galax city, VA79
Surry County, NC59
Grayson County, VA59
Wythe County, VA38

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Carroll County, VA in Carroll County, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+107
2012	−82
2013	+106
2014	−68
2015	+198
2016	−27
2017	+126
2018	+49
2019	+220
2021	+160
2022	+274
2023	+331
2024	+231
2025	+332

Carroll County, nestled in Virginia's southwestern corner along the Blue Ridge foothills, recorded an R+63.3 margin in 2024—among the steepest presidential tilts in the state—reflecting a rural, working-class electorate that has shifted sharply over the past two decades.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 17.6 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 63.1 points in 2024. The 2024 margin was 63.1 points.

A population of 29,157, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,484 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Grayson County and Patrick County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Grayson County

Virginia

95.8twin score

2016–2024 trajectoryAmerican ancestry≠ English ancestry

Patrick County

Virginia

94.5twin score

American ancestry2016–2024 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry

Wythe County

Virginia

94.0twin score

American ancestry2016–2024 trajectory≠ English ancestry

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Carroll County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51035/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Carroll County

Hillsville

R+57

2.9K residents

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Carroll County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Carroll County, Virginia voted Republican by 63.1 points (R+63.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 16,200 votes cast, 2,925 went Democratic and 13,152 went Republican.

When did Carroll County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Carroll County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1932.

How many people live in Carroll County, Virginia?

Carroll County, Virginia has a population of 29,157 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Carroll County, Virginia?

Median household income in Carroll County, Virginia is $54,484 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Carroll County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carroll County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 32 went Republican.

Measure

Carroll County

Virginia

United States

Median age

49.4

39.3

39.1

Age 18–24

6.7%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

26.2%

16.7%

17.2%

Measure

Carroll County

Virginia

United States

Median household income

$54,484

$93,170

$84,427

Poverty rate

15.3%

10.0%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

16.9%

42.3%

35.6%

Measure

Carroll County

Virginia

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

4.0%

17.5%

22.3%

Spanish

3.2%

7.9%

13.6%

Measure

Carroll County

Virginia

United States

Catholic

0.6%

10.2%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

25.3%

19.9%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

59.5%

54.3%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

11.7%

8.4%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+63.1MIT Election Lab

Population

29,1572024 5-year

Median household income

$54,4842024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

93.2%2024 5-year

Black

0.2%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

4.1%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+17.6 in 1892MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+63.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Grayson County, VA · twin score 95.8

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

13,749

23,692

58.0%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

10,703

23,822

44.9%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

15,726

24,154

65.1%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

10,209

23,521

43.4%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

16,245

23,676

68.6%

A/A

Carroll County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -301 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCT C301 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCT C

435

1,836

2,289

19.0%

80.2%

R+61.2

Precinct -402 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT D402 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT D

324

1,567

1,910

17.0%

82.0%

R+65.1

Precinct -401 - OAKLAND PRECINCT401 - OAKLAND PRECINCT

284

1,380

1,677

16.9%

82.3%

R+65.4

Precinct -502 - GLADEVILLE PRECINCT502 - GLADEVILLE PRECINCT

253

1,256

1,518

16.7%

82.7%

R+66.1

Precinct -105 - FANCY GAP PRECINCT105 - FANCY GAP PRECINCT

253

815

1,080

23.4%

75.5%

R+52.0

Precinct -203 - GLADESBORO PRECINCT203 - GLADESBORO PRECINCT

214

851

1,074

19.9%

79.2%

R+59.3

Precinct -102 - ST PAUL PRECINCT102 - ST PAUL PRECINCT

182

877

1,061

17.2%

82.7%

R+65.5

Precinct -504 - LAUREL PRECINCT504 - LAUREL PRECINCT

137

707

855

16.0%

82.7%

R+66.7

Precinct -302 - SYLVATUS PRECINCT302 - SYLVATUS PRECINCT

133

693

833

16.0%

83.2%

R+67.2

Precinct -503 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT E503 - WOODLAWN PRECINCT E

151

633

788

19.2%

80.3%

R+61.2

Precinct -202 - LAUREL FORK PRECINCT202 - LAUREL FORK PRECINCT

167

603

781

21.4%

77.2%

R+55.8

Precinct -101 - MT BETHEL PRECINCT101 - MT BETHEL PRECINCT

138

575

718

19.2%

80.1%

R+60.9

Precinct -103 - LAMBSBURG PRECINCT103 - LAMBSBURG PRECINCT

536

631

15.1%

84.9%

R+69.9

Precinct -501 - VAUGHAN PRECINCT501 - VAUGHAN PRECINCT

475

544

12.5%

87.3%

R+74.8

Precinct -303 - DUGSPUR PRECINCT303 - DUGSPUR PRECINCT

348

441

20.6%

78.9%

R+58.3

Dugspur51035000303

—

No votes

Fancy Gap51035000105

—

No votes

Gladesboro51035000203

—

No votes

Gladeville51035000502

—

No votes

Hillsville B51035000201

—

No votes

Hillsville C51035000301

—

No votes

Lambsburg51035000103

—

No votes

Laurel51035000504

—

No votes

Laurel Fork51035000202

—

No votes

Mt Bethel51035000101

—

No votes

Oakland51035000401

—

No votes

Precinct -201 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCTB201 - HILLSVILLE PRECINCTB

—

No votes

St Paul51035000102

—

No votes

Sylvatus51035000302

—

No votes

Vaughan51035000501

—

No votes

Woodlawn D51035000402

—

No votes

Woodlawn E51035000503

—

No votes

Woodlawn F51035000406

—

No votes

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+17.6%
1896	−4.5%
1900	−10.1%
1904	−18.2%
1908	−27.8%
1912	−5.5%
1916	−24.8%
1920	−33.1%
1924	−16.1%
1928	−37.5%
1932	+2.5%
1936	−20.9%
1940	−8.5%
1944	−26.2%
1948	−33.7%
1952	−37.5%
1956	−39.8%
1960	−32.8%
1964	−17.9%
1968	−41.0%
1972	−52.4%
1976	−9.0%
1980	−25.6%
1984	−41.2%
1988	−33.1%
1992	−17.2%
1996	−14.8%
2000	−31.9%
2004	−35.3%
2008	−32.4%
2012	−39.1%
2016	−59.3%
2020	−62.7%
2024	−63.1%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

18.1%Harris2,925

81.2%Trump13,152

0.2%Oliver32 +4

R+63.1

R+0.4

R+61.7

16,200

All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent

Donald J TrumpRepublican81.2%13,152
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic18.1%2,925
OtherAll other candidates0.2%40
Chase OliverLibertarian0.2%32
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%28
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%13
Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%10

2020

18.2%Biden2,842

80.9%Trump12,659

0.8%Jorgensen118

R+62.7

R+3.4

R+67.2

15,651

2016

18.7%Clinton2,559

78.1%Trump10,663

1.6%Johnson220

R+59.3

R+20.2

R+61.4

13,655

2012

28.5%Obama3,685

67.6%Romney8,736

3.8%

R+39.1

R+6.7

R+43.0

12,918

2008

32.7%Obama4,109

65.1%McCain8,187

2.2%

R+32.4

D+2.9

R+39.7

12,579

2004

32.1%Kerry3,888

67.4%Bush8,173

0.6%

R+35.3

R+3.5

R+32.9

12,128

2000

33.1%Gore3,638

64.9%Bush7,142

1.1%Nader126

R+31.9

R+17.0

R+32.4

11,001

1996

36.2%Clinton3,611

51.0%Dole5,088

11.6%Perot1,158

R+14.8

D+2.4

R+23.3

9,969

1992

34.7%Clinton3,790

51.9%Bush5,664

12.7%Perot1,388

R+17.2

D+15.9

R+22.7

10,915

1988

33.1%Dukakis3,190

66.2%Bush6,377

0.7%

R+33.1

D+8.2

R+25.3

9,637

1984

29.0%Mondale2,914

70.3%Reagan7,056

0.7%

R+41.2

R+15.6

R+23.0

10,042

1980

35.7%Carter3,437

61.3%Reagan5,905

3.0%

R+25.6

R+16.6

R+15.9

9,634

1976

44.7%Carter4,010

53.7%Ford4,820

1.5%

R+9.0

D+43.4

R+11.1

8,968

1972

22.6%McGovern1,583

75.1%Nixon5,247

2.3%

R+52.4

R+11.4

R+29.3

6,989

1968

23.2%Humphrey1,773

64.2%Nixon4,909

12.7%

R+41.0

R+23.1

R+40.3

7,651

1964

41.0%Johnson2,517

58.9%Goldwater3,617

0.2%

R+17.9

D+14.9

R+40.5

6,146

1960

33.5%Kennedy1,873

66.3%Nixon3,705

0.2%

R+32.8

D+7.0

R+32.9

5,589

1956

29.8%Stevenson1,739

69.7%Eisenhower4,060

0.5%

R+39.8

R+2.3

R+24.4

5,828

1952

31.1%Stevenson1,711

68.7%Eisenhower3,774

0.2%

R+37.5

R+3.8

R+26.8

5,495

1948

32.0%Truman1,196

65.7%Dewey2,456

2.3%

R+33.7

R+7.5

R+38.2

3,737

1944

36.9%Roosevelt1,375

63.1%Dewey2,352

0.1%

R+26.2

R+17.7

R+33.7

3,729

1940

45.7%Roosevelt1,546

54.2%Willkie1,835

0.1%

R+8.5

D+12.4

R+18.5

3,386

1936

39.5%Roosevelt2,122

60.5%Landon3,245

0.0%

R+20.9

R+23.4

R+45.2

5,368

1932

50.8%Roosevelt1,537

48.3%Hoover1,461

0.9%

D+2.5

D+40.0

R+15.3

3,026

1928

31.2%Smith1,117

68.8%Hoover2,459

0.0%

R+37.5

R+21.4

R+20.1

3,576

1924

41.7%Davis1,257

57.8%Coolidge1,743

0.5%La Follette14

R+16.1

D+17.0

D+9.1

3,016

1920

33.4%Cox1,265

66.5%Harding2,520

0.2%

R+33.1

R+8.3

R+6.9

3,791

1916

37.6%Wilson858

62.4%Hughes1,424

0.0%

R+24.8

R+19.3

R+27.9

2,282

1912

38.5%Wilson765

44.0%Taft874

17.6%

R+5.5

D+22.3

R+25.0

1,988

1908

36.1%Bryan859

63.9%Taft1,521

0.0%

R+27.8

R+9.6

R+18.3

2,380

1904

40.8%Parker874

59.0%Roosevelt1,265

0.2%

R+18.2

R+8.1

D+1.4

2,143

1900

44.8%Bryan1,434

54.9%McKinley1,759

0.3%

R+10.1

R+5.6

R+2.6

3,203

1896

47.6%Bryan1,528

52.2%McKinley1,673

0.2%

R+4.5

R+22.1

D+1.6

3,207

1892

57.8%Cleveland1,450

40.2%Harrison1,008

2.0%

D+17.6

—

D+16.0

2,508

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

18.2%2,937

81.8%13,217

16,154

2018

24.1%2,551

75.9%8,052

10,603

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

22.8%3,637

77.2%12,318

15,955

2020Class II

23.6%Mark Warner3,591

76.3%Daniel Gade11,610

15,215

2018Class I

23.2%Tim Kaine2,459

75.7%Corey Stewart8,042

10,620

2014Class II

32.1%Mark Warner2,265

65.0%Ed Gillespie4,587

7,054

2012Class I

32.1%Tim Kaine4,075

67.7%George Allen8,596

12,689

2008Class II

55.3%Mark Warner6,737

43.1%Jim Gilmore5,247

12,178

2006Class I

37.7%Jim Webb3,442

60.8%George Allen5,549

9,129

2002Class II

0.0%None0

83.1%John Warner5,308

6,386

2000Class I

35.2%Chuck Robb3,754

64.8%George Allen6,919

10,673

1996Class II

49.8%Mark Warner4,696

50.2%John Warner4,727

9,423

1994Class I

32.2%Chuck Robb2,818

57.8%Oliver North5,067

8,763

1990Class II

0.0%None0

78.7%John Warner3,683

4,682

1988Class I

59.5%Chuck Robb5,161

40.5%Maurice A. Dawkins3,506

8,667

1984Class II

23.7%Edythe Harrison2,187

76.3%John Warner7,022

9,209

1982Class I

42.9%Dick Davis3,082

57.1%Paul S. Trible4,110

7,192

1978Class II

41.4%Andrew Miller2,673

58.6%John Warner3,783

6,456

1976Class I

35.6%Elmo Zumwalt2,566

0.0%None0

7,209

1972Class II

32.0%William B. Spong Jr.2,066

66.6%Bill Scott4,301

6,456

1970Class I

31.2%George C. Rawlings Jr.1,530

50.4%Ray Garland2,473

4,910

1966Class II

27.9%William B. Spong Jr.1,356

70.2%James P. Ould Jr.3,406

4,854

1964Class I

38.3%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,050

49.3%Richard A. May2,633

5,346

1960Class II

68.1%A. Willis Robertson1,926

0.0%None0

2,828

1958Class I

65.0%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,154

0.0%None0

1,776

1954Class II

71.2%A. Willis Robertson834

0.0%None0

1,172

1952Class I

72.1%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,870

0.0%None0

3,980

1948Class II

35.6%A. Willis Robertson1,218

62.7%Robert H. Woods2,141

3,417

1946Class I

46.2%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,019

50.5%Lester S. Parsons1,115

2,206

1942Class II

80.2%Carter Glass498

0.0%None0

621

1940Class I

86.5%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,641

0.0%None0

1,898

1936Class II

85.9%Carter Glass1,985

7.1%George Rohlson163

2,311

1934Class I

55.9%Harry F. Byrd Sr.893

41.8%Lawrence C. Page668

1,597

1930Class II

91.1%Carter Glass511

0.0%None0

561

1928Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson2,993

0.0%None0

2,993

1924Class II

48.3%Carter Glass1,217

3.9%William Doak99

2,519

1922Class I

58.9%Claude Swanson1,405

37.7%J.W. McGavock899

2,387

1918Class II

100.0%Thomas S. Martin413

0.0%None0

413

1916Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson1,094

0.0%None0

1,094

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1966Special · Class I

26.1%Harry F. Byrd Jr.1,257

70.2%Lawrence Traylor3,384

4,822

1933Special · Class I

47.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,052

51.2%Henry Wise1,131

2,209

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2025

21.4%Abigail Spanberger2,433

78.3%Winsome Earle-Sears8,889

11,348

2017

22.2%Ralph Northam1,838

76.9%Ed Gillespie6,363

8,275

2013

27.7%Terry McAuliffe2,182

64.2%Ken Cuccinelli5,061

7,878

2009

27.0%Creigh Deeds1,932

73.0%Bob McDonnell5,229

7,166

2005

38.9%Tim Kaine2,942

59.2%Jerry Kilgore4,485

7,571

2001

42.3%Mark Warner3,309

57.2%Mark Earley4,481

7,830

1997

31.2%Don Beyer2,136

66.4%Jim Gilmore4,549

6,850

1993

32.0%Mary Sue Terry2,577

67.4%George Allen5,424

8,051

1989

32.5%Douglas Wilder2,375

67.5%Marshall Coleman4,926

7,301

1985

45.1%Gerald Baliles2,687

54.9%Wyatt Durrette3,276

5,963

1981

43.1%Chuck Robb3,053

56.9%Marshall Coleman4,033

7,086

1977

35.0%Henry Howell2,275

63.9%John N. Dalton4,152

6,497

Frequently asked questions

Voter registration in Carroll County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	19,392
2018	19,406
2020	20,701
2022	21,071
2024	22,065

How did Carroll County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Carroll County, Virginia voted Republican by 63.1 points (R+63.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 16,200 votes cast, 2,925 went Democratic and 13,152 went Republican.

When did Carroll County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Carroll County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1932.

How many people live in Carroll County, Virginia?

Carroll County, Virginia has a population of 29,157 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Carroll County, Virginia?

Median household income in Carroll County, Virginia is $54,484 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Carroll County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carroll County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 32 went Republican.