Akashic

county

Frederick County, VA

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German16.7%10.1%12.5%

English14.3%12.0%9.5%

Irish12.6%9.1%9.4%

American8.1%8.4%5.3%

Italian5.9%3.9%4.8%

Polish2.0%1.6%2.2%

French2.0%1.3%1.6%

Scottish1.9%1.9%1.3%

Mexican4.4%2.4%11.3%

Salvadoran2.1%2.1%0.7%

Puerto Rican1.7%1.4%1.8%

Honduran0.8%0.7%0.3%

Guatemalan0.6%0.7%0.5%

Colombian0.5%0.3%0.4%

Bolivian0.4%0.4%—

Peruvian0.4%0.5%—

African American†3.8%15.6%9.9%

Jamaican0.2%0.3%0.4%

Asian Indian0.5%1.8%1.4%

Filipino0.5%0.9%0.9%

Chinese0.2%0.8%1.3%

Vietnamese0.2%0.7%0.6%

Cambodian0.2%——

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Frederick County	Virginia	United States
Median age	40.8	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	7.4%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	18.7%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Frederick County	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$97,606	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	6.8%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	31.9%	42.3%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Frederick County	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	11.9%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	9.3%	7.9%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Frederick County	Virginia	United States
Catholic	—	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	20.4%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	66.9%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	10.1%	8.4%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 74.5% of 69,869 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic35.1%18,331TrumpRepublican63.4%33,117OtherAll other candidates0.4%223

R+28.3

Lead: 14,786
Total: 52,263
vs nation: R+26.8
Turnout: 74.5%

BidenDemocratic35.3%17,207TrumpRepublican62.7%30,558JorgensenLibertarian1.6%781

R+27.4

Lead: 13,351
Total: 48,703
vs nation: R+31.9
Turnout: 76.0%

ClintonDemocratic29.5%11,932TrumpRepublican64.5%26,083JohnsonLibertarian3.2%1,280

R+35.0

Lead: 14,151
Total: 40,440
vs nation: R+37.1
Turnout: 67.4%

ObamaDemocratic34.9%12,690RomneyRepublican62.8%22,858OtherAll other candidates2.3%846

R+27.9

Lead: 10,168
Total: 36,394
vs nation: R+31.8
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic38.6%12,961McCainRepublican59.9%20,149OtherAll other candidates1.5%502

R+21.4

Lead: 7,188
Total: 33,612
vs nation: R+28.7
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic31.0%8,853BushRepublican67.9%19,386OtherAll other candidates1.1%301

R+36.9

Lead: 10,533
Total: 28,540
vs nation: R+34.4
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic32.0%7,158BushRepublican65.1%14,574NaderGreen2.2%483

R+33.1

Lead: 7,416
Total: 22,392
vs nation: R+33.6
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic32.5%5,976DoleRepublican57.6%10,608PerotReform8.7%1,599

R+25.2

Lead: 4,632
Total: 18,412
vs nation: R+33.7
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+28.3MIT Election Lab
Population: 95,0082024 5-year
Median household income: $97,6062024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 77.4%2024 5-year
Black: 4.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 12.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+60.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+56.0 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Hendricks County, IN · twin score 87.7

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 74.5%52,040 participants ÷ 69,869 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +25.4 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 49.1%–55.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	40,575	60,243	67.4%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	34,475	62,319	55.3%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	49,080	64,612	76.0%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	33,853	66,952	50.6%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	52,040	69,869	74.5%	C/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

50 precincts · 52,263 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Frederick County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -203 - REDLAND203 - REDLAND	873	2,069	36	2,978	29.3%	69.5%	R+40.2
Precinct -402 - SHENANDOAH402 - SHENANDOAH	1,172	1,605	39	2,816	41.6%	57.0%	R+15.4
Precinct -503 - CANTERBURG503 - CANTERBURG	1,222	1,521	40	2,783	43.9%	54.7%	R+10.7
Precinct -303 - JORDAN SPRINGS303 - JORDAN SPRINGS	1,258	1,422	54	2,734	46.0%	52.0%	R+6.0
Precinct -603 - GREENWOOD603 - GREENWOOD	1,136	1,521	62	2,719	41.8%	55.9%	R+14.2
Precinct -102 - GORE102 - GORE	600	1,918	34	2,552	23.5%	75.2%	R+51.6
Precinct -101 - RUSSELLS101 - RUSSELLS	642	1,849	39	2,530	25.4%	73.1%	R+47.7
Precinct -103 - KERNSTOWN103 - KERNSTOWN	892	1,571	42	2,505	35.6%	62.7%	R+27.1
Precinct -504 - VAUCLUSE SPRING504 - VAUCLUSE SPRING	780	1,453	19	2,252	34.6%	64.5%	R+29.9
Precinct -403 - PARKINS MILL403 - PARKINS MILL	842	1,346	41	2,229	37.8%	60.4%	R+22.6
Precinct -602 - ASH HOLLOW602 - ASH HOLLOW	906	1,206	50	2,162	41.9%	55.8%	R+13.9
Precinct -404 - WHITE OAK SCHOOL404 - WHITE OAK SCHOOL	805	1,217	30	2,052	39.2%	59.3%	R+20.1
Precinct -601 - MILLBROOK601 - MILLBROOK	757	1,254	26	2,037	37.2%	61.6%	R+24.4
Precinct -202 - ALBIN202 - ALBIN	586	1,386	39	2,011	29.1%	68.9%	R+39.8
Precinct -301 - CLEAR BROOK301 - CLEAR BROOK	440	1,520	18	1,978	22.2%	76.8%	R+54.6
Precinct -401 - ARMEL401 - ARMEL	667	1,115	37	1,819	36.7%	61.3%	R+24.6
Precinct -502 - BASS-HOOVER502 - BASS-HOOVER	651	1,141	17	1,809	36.0%	63.1%	R+27.1
Precinct -204 - NAIN204 - NAIN	524	1,155	19	1,698	30.9%	68.0%	R+37.2
Precinct -201 - GAINESBOROUGH201 - GAINESBOROUGH	333	1,276	17	1,626	20.5%	78.5%	R+58.0
Precinct -501 - STEPHENS CITY501 - STEPHENS CITY	500	773	21	1,294	38.6%	59.7%	R+21.1
Precinct -205 - WHITE HALL205 - WHITE HALL	367	898	18	1,283	28.6%	70.0%	R+41.4
Precinct -505 - AYLOR505 - AYLOR	496	766	19	1,281	38.7%	59.8%	R+21.1
Precinct -305 - SUNNYSIDE305 - SUNNYSIDE	511	575	21	1,107	46.2%	51.9%	R+5.8
Precinct -105 - MIDDLETOWN105 - MIDDLETOWN	350	544	25	919	38.1%	59.2%	R+21.1
Precinct -104 - CEDAR CREEK104 - CEDAR CREEK	209	684	13	906	23.1%	75.5%	R+52.4
Precinct -604 - CARPERS VALLEY604 - CARPERS VALLEY	216	459	13	688	31.4%	66.7%	R+35.3
Precinct -304 - GIBSON SCHOOL304 - GIBSON SCHOOL	316	354	11	681	46.4%	52.0%	R+5.6
Precinct -302 - NEFFS TOWN302 - NEFFS TOWN	220	358	8	586	37.5%	61.1%	R+23.5
Precinct -605 - SULPHUR SPRING605 - SULPHUR SPRING	60	161	7	228	26.3%	70.6%	R+44.3
Albin51069000202	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Armel51069000404	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Ash Hollow51069000602	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Canterburg51069000503	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Carpers Valley51069000401	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Cedar Creek51069000104	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Clear Brook51069000301	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Gainesborough51069000201	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Gore51069000102	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Greenwood51069000603	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Kernstown51069000103	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Millbrook51069000601	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Nain51069000204	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Neff's Town51069000302	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Newtown51069000502	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Parkin's Mill51069000403	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Redland51069000203	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Russells51069000101	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Shenandoah51069000402	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Stephens City51069000501	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
White Hall51069000303	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+47.6%
1896	+36.8%
1900	+44.1%
1904	+45.1%
1908	+41.1%
1912	+60.0%
1916	+52.4%
1920	+20.7%
1924	+45.4%
1928	+6.2%
1932	+53.6%
1936	+35.0%
1940	+35.7%
1944	+12.8%
1948	+13.4%
1952	−15.2%
1956	−14.2%
1960	−7.9%
1964	+5.4%
1968	−28.0%
1972	−52.7%
1976	−20.4%
1980	−40.3%
1984	−56.0%
1988	−45.3%
1992	−25.7%
1996	−25.2%
2000	−33.1%
2004	−36.9%
2008	−21.4%
2012	−27.9%
2016	−35.0%
2020	−27.4%
2024	−28.3%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	35.1%Harris18,331	63.4%Trump33,117	0.4%Oliver222 +4	R+28.3	R+0.9	R+26.8	52,263
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican63.4%33,117 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic35.1%18,331 OtherAll other candidates0.4%223 Chase OliverLibertarian0.4%222 Jill SteinIndependent0.4%205 Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.2%89 Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%76
2020	R	35.3%Biden17,207	62.7%Trump30,558	1.6%Jorgensen781	R+27.4	D+7.6	R+31.9	48,703
2016	R	29.5%Clinton11,932	64.5%Trump26,083	3.2%Johnson1,280	R+35.0	R+7.1	R+37.1	40,440
2012	R	34.9%Obama12,690	62.8%Romney22,858	2.3%	R+27.9	R+6.6	R+31.8	36,394
2008	R	38.6%Obama12,961	59.9%McCain20,149	1.5%	R+21.4	D+15.5	R+28.7	33,612
2004	R	31.0%Kerry8,853	67.9%Bush19,386	1.1%	R+36.9	R+3.8	R+34.4	28,540
2000	R	32.0%Gore7,158	65.1%Bush14,574	2.2%Nader483	R+33.1	R+8.0	R+33.6	22,392
1996	R	32.5%Clinton5,976	57.6%Dole10,608	8.7%Perot1,599	R+25.2	D+0.5	R+33.7	18,412
1992	R	28.3%Clinton4,942	54.0%Bush9,425	17.1%Perot2,981	R+25.7	D+19.6	R+31.2	17,468
1988	R	27.0%Dukakis3,707	72.3%Bush9,921	0.6%	R+45.3	D+10.7	R+37.6	13,717
1984	R	21.8%Mondale2,671	77.8%Reagan9,542	0.4%	R+56.0	R+15.7	R+37.8	12,267
1980	R	27.3%Carter2,948	67.6%Reagan7,293	5.1%	R+40.3	R+19.8	R+30.5	10,787
1976	R	39.1%Carter3,389	59.5%Ford5,162	1.4%	R+20.4	D+32.3	R+22.5	8,672
1972	R	22.5%McGovern1,604	75.2%Nixon5,367	2.4%	R+52.7	R+24.8	R+29.6	7,139
1968	R	21.6%Humphrey1,612	49.6%Nixon3,696	28.8%	R+28.0	R+33.3	R+27.3	7,454
1964	D	52.6%Johnson2,880	47.2%Goldwater2,585	0.2%	D+5.4	D+13.3	R+17.2	5,474
1960	R	45.8%Kennedy1,757	53.7%Nixon2,061	0.4%	R+7.9	D+6.3	R+8.1	3,835
1956	R	41.8%Stevenson1,405	56.0%Eisenhower1,882	2.2%	R+14.2	D+1.0	D+1.2	3,360
1952	R	42.3%Stevenson1,326	57.5%Eisenhower1,803	0.2%	R+15.2	R+28.7	R+4.5	3,134
1948	D	51.7%Truman1,244	38.3%Dewey921	9.9%	D+13.4	D+0.7	D+9.0	2,404
1944	D	56.3%Roosevelt1,213	43.5%Dewey938	0.2%	D+12.8	R+22.9	D+5.3	2,156
1940	D	67.8%Roosevelt1,631	32.1%Willkie773	0.1%	D+35.7	D+0.6	D+25.7	2,406
1936	D	67.3%Roosevelt1,386	32.3%Landon665	0.3%	D+35.0	R+18.5	D+10.8	2,058
1932	D	76.2%Roosevelt1,536	22.6%Hoover456	1.2%	D+53.6	D+47.3	D+35.8	2,016
1928	D	53.1%Smith1,140	46.9%Hoover1,006	0.0%	D+6.2	R+39.2	D+23.7	2,146
1924	D	71.9%Davis1,314	26.5%Coolidge484	1.6%La Follette29	D+45.4	D+24.8	D+70.6	1,827
1920	D	59.8%Cox1,337	39.1%Harding875	1.1%	D+20.7	R+31.7	D+46.9	2,236
1916	D	75.5%Wilson1,194	23.1%Hughes366	1.3%	D+52.4	R+7.6	D+49.2	1,581
1912	D	74.7%Wilson922	14.7%Taft181	10.7%	D+60.0	D+18.9	D+40.5	1,235
1908	D	69.6%Bryan866	28.4%Taft354	2.0%	D+41.1	R+4.0	D+50.7	1,245
1904	D	71.4%Parker858	26.3%Roosevelt316	2.3%	D+45.1	D+1.0	D+64.8	1,202
1900	D	71.5%Bryan1,748	27.5%McKinley671	1.0%	D+44.1	D+7.3	D+51.6	2,444
1896	D	67.7%Bryan1,848	31.0%McKinley845	1.3%	D+36.8	R+10.9	D+42.8	2,728
1892	D	72.6%Cleveland2,035	25.0%Harrison700	2.4%	D+47.6	—	D+46.0	2,803
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	34.5%17,853	65.5%33,844	51,697
2018	R	35.4%12,109	64.6%22,064	34,173

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	38.4%19,769	61.6%31,659	51,428
2020Class II	R	37.5%Mark Warner17,962	62.4%Daniel Gade29,940	47,946
2018Class I	R	37.7%Tim Kaine12,885	60.3%Corey Stewart20,640	34,213
2014Class II	R	30.3%Mark Warner6,659	66.9%Ed Gillespie14,693	21,953
2012Class I	R	37.2%Tim Kaine13,342	62.6%George Allen22,464	35,871
2008Class II	D	54.8%Mark Warner18,168	44.1%Jim Gilmore14,647	33,176
2006Class I	R	36.4%Jim Webb7,807	62.3%George Allen13,363	21,444
2002Class II	R	0.0%None0	85.3%John Warner9,565	11,215
2000Class I	R	33.1%Chuck Robb7,320	66.9%George Allen14,766	22,088
1996Class II	R	39.9%Mark Warner7,141	60.0%John Warner10,723	17,877
1994Class I	R	30.4%Chuck Robb4,533	58.4%Oliver North8,700	14,897
1990Class II	R	0.0%None0	85.0%John Warner7,752	9,123
1988Class I	D	71.5%Chuck Robb9,436	28.5%Maurice A. Dawkins3,767	13,205
1984Class II	R	15.1%Edythe Harrison1,763	84.9%John Warner9,896	11,660
1982Class I	R	37.8%Dick Davis2,834	62.2%Paul S. Trible4,655	7,489
1978Class II	R	45.9%Andrew Miller3,008	54.1%John Warner3,540	6,548
1976Class I	D	21.7%Elmo Zumwalt1,849	0.0%None0	8,512
1972Class II	R	42.1%William B. Spong Jr.2,825	56.1%Bill Scott3,765	6,717
1970Class I	D	20.0%George C. Rawlings Jr.1,172	6.9%Ray Garland403	5,846
1966Class II	D	65.4%William B. Spong Jr.2,430	32.8%James P. Ould Jr.1,217	3,714
1964Class I	D	76.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.3,903	12.4%Richard A. May633	5,094
1960Class II	D	82.1%A. Willis Robertson2,426	0.0%None0	2,954
1958Class I	D	77.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,790	0.0%None0	2,308
1954Class II	D	86.2%A. Willis Robertson1,439	0.0%None0	1,670
1952Class I	D	82.1%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,466	0.0%None0	3,002
1948Class II	D	73.1%A. Willis Robertson1,654	26.4%Robert H. Woods597	2,262
1946Class I	D	77.5%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,204	21.1%Lester S. Parsons327	1,553
1942Class II	D	91.9%Carter Glass350	0.0%None0	381
1940Class I	D	93.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,856	0.0%None0	1,983
1936Class II	D	93.4%Carter Glass1,476	5.4%George Rohlson85	1,581
1934Class I	D	79.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.861	17.7%Lawrence C. Page191	1,082
1930Class II	D	86.1%Carter Glass1,240	0.0%None0	1,441
1928Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson1,815	0.0%None0	1,815
1924Class II	D	78.3%Carter Glass1,289	2.8%William Doak46	1,646
1922Class I	D	79.2%Claude Swanson1,232	17.6%J.W. McGavock274	1,555
1918Class II	D	100.0%Thomas S. Martin317	0.0%None0	317
1916Class I	D	100.0%Claude Swanson1,490	0.0%None0	1,490

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1966Special · Class I	D	74.7%Harry F. Byrd Jr.2,878	23.1%Lawrence Traylor891	3,852
1933Special · Class I	D	77.4%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,052	22.1%Henry Wise301	1,359

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2025	R	40.5%Abigail Spanberger15,809	59.3%Winsome Earle-Sears23,130	38,990
2017	R	34.4%Ralph Northam8,363	64.4%Ed Gillespie15,656	24,315
2013	R	30.8%Terry McAuliffe6,339	63.8%Ken Cuccinelli13,148	20,605
2009	R	25.1%Creigh Deeds4,456	74.8%Bob McDonnell13,274	17,755
2005	R	33.7%Tim Kaine6,027	59.8%Jerry Kilgore10,698	17,876
2001	R	39.0%Mark Warner6,433	60.3%Mark Earley9,947	16,499
1997	R	30.2%Don Beyer4,246	68.8%Jim Gilmore9,672	14,064
1993	R	24.7%Mary Sue Terry3,139	74.8%George Allen9,510	12,715
1989	R	36.3%Douglas Wilder3,746	63.7%Marshall Coleman6,581	10,330
1985	D	50.1%Gerald Baliles3,475	49.9%Wyatt Durrette3,455	6,930
1981	R	43.4%Chuck Robb3,499	56.6%Marshall Coleman4,572	8,071
1977	R	36.6%Henry Howell2,202	62.6%John N. Dalton3,771	6,024

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Frederick County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	56,285
2018	59,177
2020	64,271
2022	67,547
2024	72,392

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

+1,621 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +14,754 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $77,640 in average income, against $91,211 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean D+0.6 on average — 29 points more Democratic-leaning than Frederick County, VA itself (R+28.3).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Winchester city, VA607D+9.7
Loudoun County, VA356D+16.2
Fairfax County, VA242D+34.7
Warren County, VA191R+37.4
Berkeley County, WV167R+35.8
Prince William County, VA151D+17.9

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Winchester city, VA498
Berkeley County, WV343
Shenandoah County, VA163
Loudoun County, VA148
Warren County, VA128
Fairfax County, VA105

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Frederick County, VA in Frederick County, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+550
2012	+360
2013	+894
2014	+829
2015	+448
2016	+752
2017	+1,393
2018	+1,410
2019	+943
2021	+2,115
2022	+816
2023	+1,069
2024	+1,554
2025	+1,621

Frederick County sits at Virginia's northwestern gateway, where exurban growth from the D.C. corridor meets longstanding rural conservatism. Its 2024 margin of R+28.4 reflects a pattern of deepening Republican strength that has held across multiple election cycles.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 60.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 56.0 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 28.3 points.

A population of 95,008, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $97,606 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hendricks County and Hancock County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Hendricks County

Indiana

87.7twin score

median incomeelasticity2000–2004 trajectory≠ 12-yr trend

Hancock County

Indiana

87.5twin score

median income12-yr trendelasticity≠ Italian ancestry

Johnson County

Indiana

84.7twin score

12-yr trendmedian income2000 margin≠ Italian ancestry

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Frederick County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51069/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Frederick County

Shawneeland

R+52

2.8K residents

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Frederick County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Frederick County, Virginia voted Republican by 28.3 points (R+28.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 52,263 votes cast, 18,331 went Democratic and 33,117 went Republican.

When did Frederick County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Frederick County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1964.

How many people live in Frederick County, Virginia?

Frederick County, Virginia has a population of 95,008 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Frederick County, Virginia?

Median household income in Frederick County, Virginia is $97,606 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Frederick County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Frederick County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.

Measure

Frederick County

Virginia

United States

Median age

40.8

39.3

39.1

Age 18–24

7.4%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

18.7%

16.7%

17.2%

Measure

Frederick County

Virginia

United States

Median household income

$97,606

$93,170

$84,427

Poverty rate

6.8%

10.0%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

31.9%

42.3%

35.6%

Measure

Frederick County

Virginia

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

11.9%

17.5%

22.3%

Spanish

9.3%

7.9%

13.6%

Measure

Frederick County

Virginia

United States

Catholic

—

10.2%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

20.4%

19.9%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

66.9%

54.3%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

10.1%

8.4%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+28.3MIT Election Lab

Population

95,0082024 5-year

Median household income

$97,6062024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

77.4%2024 5-year

Black

4.4%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

12.5%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+60.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+56.0 in 1984MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Hendricks County, IN · twin score 87.7

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

40,575

60,243

67.4%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

34,475

62,319

55.3%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

49,080

64,612

76.0%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

33,853

66,952

50.6%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

52,040

69,869

74.5%

C/A

Frederick County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -203 - REDLAND203 - REDLAND

873

2,069

2,978

29.3%

69.5%

R+40.2

Precinct -402 - SHENANDOAH402 - SHENANDOAH

1,172

1,605

2,816

41.6%

57.0%

R+15.4

Precinct -503 - CANTERBURG503 - CANTERBURG

1,222

1,521

2,783

43.9%

54.7%

R+10.7

Precinct -303 - JORDAN SPRINGS303 - JORDAN SPRINGS

1,258

1,422

2,734

46.0%

52.0%

R+6.0

Precinct -603 - GREENWOOD603 - GREENWOOD

1,136

1,521

2,719

41.8%

55.9%

R+14.2

Precinct -102 - GORE102 - GORE

600

1,918

2,552

23.5%

75.2%

R+51.6

Precinct -101 - RUSSELLS101 - RUSSELLS

642

1,849

2,530

25.4%

73.1%

R+47.7

Precinct -103 - KERNSTOWN103 - KERNSTOWN

892

1,571

2,505

35.6%

62.7%

R+27.1

Precinct -504 - VAUCLUSE SPRING504 - VAUCLUSE SPRING

780

1,453

2,252

34.6%

64.5%

R+29.9

Precinct -403 - PARKINS MILL403 - PARKINS MILL

842

1,346

2,229

37.8%

60.4%

R+22.6

Precinct -602 - ASH HOLLOW602 - ASH HOLLOW

906

1,206

2,162

41.9%

55.8%

R+13.9

Precinct -404 - WHITE OAK SCHOOL404 - WHITE OAK SCHOOL

805

1,217

2,052

39.2%

59.3%

R+20.1

Precinct -601 - MILLBROOK601 - MILLBROOK

757

1,254

2,037

37.2%

61.6%

R+24.4

Precinct -202 - ALBIN202 - ALBIN

586

1,386

2,011

29.1%

68.9%

R+39.8

Precinct -301 - CLEAR BROOK301 - CLEAR BROOK

440

1,520

1,978

22.2%

76.8%

R+54.6

Precinct -401 - ARMEL401 - ARMEL

667

1,115

1,819

36.7%

61.3%

R+24.6

Precinct -502 - BASS-HOOVER502 - BASS-HOOVER

651

1,141

1,809

36.0%

63.1%

R+27.1

Precinct -204 - NAIN204 - NAIN

524

1,155

1,698

30.9%

68.0%

R+37.2

Precinct -201 - GAINESBOROUGH201 - GAINESBOROUGH

333

1,276

1,626

20.5%

78.5%

R+58.0

Precinct -501 - STEPHENS CITY501 - STEPHENS CITY

500

773

1,294

38.6%

59.7%

R+21.1

Precinct -205 - WHITE HALL205 - WHITE HALL

367

898

1,283

28.6%

70.0%

R+41.4

Precinct -505 - AYLOR505 - AYLOR

496

766

1,281

38.7%

59.8%

R+21.1

Precinct -305 - SUNNYSIDE305 - SUNNYSIDE

511

575

1,107

46.2%

51.9%

R+5.8

Precinct -105 - MIDDLETOWN105 - MIDDLETOWN

350

544

919

38.1%

59.2%

R+21.1

Precinct -104 - CEDAR CREEK104 - CEDAR CREEK

209

684

906

23.1%

75.5%

R+52.4

Precinct -604 - CARPERS VALLEY604 - CARPERS VALLEY

216

459

688

31.4%

66.7%

R+35.3

Precinct -304 - GIBSON SCHOOL304 - GIBSON SCHOOL

316

354

681

46.4%

52.0%

R+5.6

Precinct -302 - NEFFS TOWN302 - NEFFS TOWN

220

358

586

37.5%

61.1%

R+23.5

Precinct -605 - SULPHUR SPRING605 - SULPHUR SPRING

161

228

26.3%

70.6%

R+44.3

Albin51069000202

—

No votes

Armel51069000404

—

No votes

Ash Hollow51069000602

—

No votes

Canterburg51069000503

—

No votes

Carpers Valley51069000401

—

No votes

Cedar Creek51069000104

—

No votes

Clear Brook51069000301

—

No votes

Gainesborough51069000201

—

No votes

Gore51069000102

—

No votes

Greenwood51069000603

—

No votes

Kernstown51069000103

—

No votes

Millbrook51069000601

—

No votes

Nain51069000204

—

No votes

Neff's Town51069000302

—

No votes

Newtown51069000502

—

No votes

Parkin's Mill51069000403

—

No votes

Redland51069000203

—

No votes

Russells51069000101

—

No votes

Shenandoah51069000402

—

No votes

Stephens City51069000501

—

No votes

White Hall51069000303

—

No votes

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+47.6%
1896	+36.8%
1900	+44.1%
1904	+45.1%
1908	+41.1%
1912	+60.0%
1916	+52.4%
1920	+20.7%
1924	+45.4%
1928	+6.2%
1932	+53.6%
1936	+35.0%
1940	+35.7%
1944	+12.8%
1948	+13.4%
1952	−15.2%
1956	−14.2%
1960	−7.9%
1964	+5.4%
1968	−28.0%
1972	−52.7%
1976	−20.4%
1980	−40.3%
1984	−56.0%
1988	−45.3%
1992	−25.7%
1996	−25.2%
2000	−33.1%
2004	−36.9%
2008	−21.4%
2012	−27.9%
2016	−35.0%
2020	−27.4%
2024	−28.3%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

35.1%Harris18,331

63.4%Trump33,117

0.4%Oliver222 +4

R+28.3

R+0.9

R+26.8

52,263

All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent

Donald J TrumpRepublican63.4%33,117
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic35.1%18,331
OtherAll other candidates0.4%223
Chase OliverLibertarian0.4%222
Jill SteinIndependent0.4%205
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.2%89
Cornel R WestIndependent0.1%76

2020

35.3%Biden17,207

62.7%Trump30,558

1.6%Jorgensen781

R+27.4

D+7.6

R+31.9

48,703

2016

29.5%Clinton11,932

64.5%Trump26,083

3.2%Johnson1,280

R+35.0

R+7.1

R+37.1

40,440

2012

34.9%Obama12,690

62.8%Romney22,858

2.3%

R+27.9

R+6.6

R+31.8

36,394

2008

38.6%Obama12,961

59.9%McCain20,149

1.5%

R+21.4

D+15.5

R+28.7

33,612

2004

31.0%Kerry8,853

67.9%Bush19,386

1.1%

R+36.9

R+3.8

R+34.4

28,540

2000

32.0%Gore7,158

65.1%Bush14,574

2.2%Nader483

R+33.1

R+8.0

R+33.6

22,392

1996

32.5%Clinton5,976

57.6%Dole10,608

8.7%Perot1,599

R+25.2

D+0.5

R+33.7

18,412

1992

28.3%Clinton4,942

54.0%Bush9,425

17.1%Perot2,981

R+25.7

D+19.6

R+31.2

17,468

1988

27.0%Dukakis3,707

72.3%Bush9,921

0.6%

R+45.3

D+10.7

R+37.6

13,717

1984

21.8%Mondale2,671

77.8%Reagan9,542

0.4%

R+56.0

R+15.7

R+37.8

12,267

1980

27.3%Carter2,948

67.6%Reagan7,293

5.1%

R+40.3

R+19.8

R+30.5

10,787

1976

39.1%Carter3,389

59.5%Ford5,162

1.4%

R+20.4

D+32.3

R+22.5

8,672

1972

22.5%McGovern1,604

75.2%Nixon5,367

2.4%

R+52.7

R+24.8

R+29.6

7,139

1968

21.6%Humphrey1,612

49.6%Nixon3,696

28.8%

R+28.0

R+33.3

R+27.3

7,454

1964

52.6%Johnson2,880

47.2%Goldwater2,585

0.2%

D+5.4

D+13.3

R+17.2

5,474

1960

45.8%Kennedy1,757

53.7%Nixon2,061

0.4%

R+7.9

D+6.3

R+8.1

3,835

1956

41.8%Stevenson1,405

56.0%Eisenhower1,882

2.2%

R+14.2

D+1.0

D+1.2

3,360

1952

42.3%Stevenson1,326

57.5%Eisenhower1,803

0.2%

R+15.2

R+28.7

R+4.5

3,134

1948

51.7%Truman1,244

38.3%Dewey921

9.9%

D+13.4

D+0.7

D+9.0

2,404

1944

56.3%Roosevelt1,213

43.5%Dewey938

0.2%

D+12.8

R+22.9

D+5.3

2,156

1940

67.8%Roosevelt1,631

32.1%Willkie773

0.1%

D+35.7

D+0.6

D+25.7

2,406

1936

67.3%Roosevelt1,386

32.3%Landon665

0.3%

D+35.0

R+18.5

D+10.8

2,058

1932

76.2%Roosevelt1,536

22.6%Hoover456

1.2%

D+53.6

D+47.3

D+35.8

2,016

1928

53.1%Smith1,140

46.9%Hoover1,006

0.0%

D+6.2

R+39.2

D+23.7

2,146

1924

71.9%Davis1,314

26.5%Coolidge484

1.6%La Follette29

D+45.4

D+24.8

D+70.6

1,827

1920

59.8%Cox1,337

39.1%Harding875

1.1%

D+20.7

R+31.7

D+46.9

2,236

1916

75.5%Wilson1,194

23.1%Hughes366

1.3%

D+52.4

R+7.6

D+49.2

1,581

1912

74.7%Wilson922

14.7%Taft181

10.7%

D+60.0

D+18.9

D+40.5

1,235

1908

69.6%Bryan866

28.4%Taft354

2.0%

D+41.1

R+4.0

D+50.7

1,245

1904

71.4%Parker858

26.3%Roosevelt316

2.3%

D+45.1

D+1.0

D+64.8

1,202

1900

71.5%Bryan1,748

27.5%McKinley671

1.0%

D+44.1

D+7.3

D+51.6

2,444

1896

67.7%Bryan1,848

31.0%McKinley845

1.3%

D+36.8

R+10.9

D+42.8

2,728

1892

72.6%Cleveland2,035

25.0%Harrison700

2.4%

D+47.6

—

D+46.0

2,803

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

34.5%17,853

65.5%33,844

51,697

2018

35.4%12,109

64.6%22,064

34,173

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

38.4%19,769

61.6%31,659

51,428

2020Class II

37.5%Mark Warner17,962

62.4%Daniel Gade29,940

47,946

2018Class I

37.7%Tim Kaine12,885

60.3%Corey Stewart20,640

34,213

2014Class II

30.3%Mark Warner6,659

66.9%Ed Gillespie14,693

21,953

2012Class I

37.2%Tim Kaine13,342

62.6%George Allen22,464

35,871

2008Class II

54.8%Mark Warner18,168

44.1%Jim Gilmore14,647

33,176

2006Class I

36.4%Jim Webb7,807

62.3%George Allen13,363

21,444

2002Class II

0.0%None0

85.3%John Warner9,565

11,215

2000Class I

33.1%Chuck Robb7,320

66.9%George Allen14,766

22,088

1996Class II

39.9%Mark Warner7,141

60.0%John Warner10,723

17,877

1994Class I

30.4%Chuck Robb4,533

58.4%Oliver North8,700

14,897

1990Class II

0.0%None0

85.0%John Warner7,752

9,123

1988Class I

71.5%Chuck Robb9,436

28.5%Maurice A. Dawkins3,767

13,205

1984Class II

15.1%Edythe Harrison1,763

84.9%John Warner9,896

11,660

1982Class I

37.8%Dick Davis2,834

62.2%Paul S. Trible4,655

7,489

1978Class II

45.9%Andrew Miller3,008

54.1%John Warner3,540

6,548

1976Class I

21.7%Elmo Zumwalt1,849

0.0%None0

8,512

1972Class II

42.1%William B. Spong Jr.2,825

56.1%Bill Scott3,765

6,717

1970Class I

20.0%George C. Rawlings Jr.1,172

6.9%Ray Garland403

5,846

1966Class II

65.4%William B. Spong Jr.2,430

32.8%James P. Ould Jr.1,217

3,714

1964Class I

76.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.3,903

12.4%Richard A. May633

5,094

1960Class II

82.1%A. Willis Robertson2,426

0.0%None0

2,954

1958Class I

77.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,790

0.0%None0

2,308

1954Class II

86.2%A. Willis Robertson1,439

0.0%None0

1,670

1952Class I

82.1%Harry F. Byrd Sr.2,466

0.0%None0

3,002

1948Class II

73.1%A. Willis Robertson1,654

26.4%Robert H. Woods597

2,262

1946Class I

77.5%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,204

21.1%Lester S. Parsons327

1,553

1942Class II

91.9%Carter Glass350

0.0%None0

381

1940Class I

93.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,856

0.0%None0

1,983

1936Class II

93.4%Carter Glass1,476

5.4%George Rohlson85

1,581

1934Class I

79.6%Harry F. Byrd Sr.861

17.7%Lawrence C. Page191

1,082

1930Class II

86.1%Carter Glass1,240

0.0%None0

1,441

1928Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson1,815

0.0%None0

1,815

1924Class II

78.3%Carter Glass1,289

2.8%William Doak46

1,646

1922Class I

79.2%Claude Swanson1,232

17.6%J.W. McGavock274

1,555

1918Class II

100.0%Thomas S. Martin317

0.0%None0

317

1916Class I

100.0%Claude Swanson1,490

0.0%None0

1,490

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1966Special · Class I

74.7%Harry F. Byrd Jr.2,878

23.1%Lawrence Traylor891

3,852

1933Special · Class I

77.4%Harry F. Byrd Sr.1,052

22.1%Henry Wise301

1,359

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2025

40.5%Abigail Spanberger15,809

59.3%Winsome Earle-Sears23,130

38,990

2017

34.4%Ralph Northam8,363

64.4%Ed Gillespie15,656

24,315

2013

30.8%Terry McAuliffe6,339

63.8%Ken Cuccinelli13,148

20,605

2009

25.1%Creigh Deeds4,456

74.8%Bob McDonnell13,274

17,755

2005

33.7%Tim Kaine6,027

59.8%Jerry Kilgore10,698

17,876

2001

39.0%Mark Warner6,433

60.3%Mark Earley9,947

16,499

1997

30.2%Don Beyer4,246

68.8%Jim Gilmore9,672

14,064

1993

24.7%Mary Sue Terry3,139

74.8%George Allen9,510

12,715

1989

36.3%Douglas Wilder3,746

63.7%Marshall Coleman6,581

10,330

1985

50.1%Gerald Baliles3,475

49.9%Wyatt Durrette3,455

6,930

1981

43.4%Chuck Robb3,499

56.6%Marshall Coleman4,572

8,071

1977

36.6%Henry Howell2,202

62.6%John N. Dalton3,771

6,024

Frequently asked questions

Voter registration in Frederick County, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	56,285
2018	59,177
2020	64,271
2022	67,547
2024	72,392

How did Frederick County, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Frederick County, Virginia voted Republican by 28.3 points (R+28.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 52,263 votes cast, 18,331 went Democratic and 33,117 went Republican.

When did Frederick County, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Frederick County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1964.

How many people live in Frederick County, Virginia?

Frederick County, Virginia has a population of 95,008 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Frederick County, Virginia?

Median household income in Frederick County, Virginia is $97,606 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Frederick County, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Frederick County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.