HarrisDemocratic47.6%2,715,375TrumpRepublican50.9%2,898,423SteinGreen0.4%24,762
R+3.2- Lead
- 183,048
- Total
- 5,699,141
- vs nation
- R+1.7
- Turnout
- 72.9%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 10,730,4042024 5-year
- Population density
- 221 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 48,624 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $72,3882024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 20.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+48.1 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Georgia, GA · twin score 85.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 72.9%5,756,106 participants ÷ 7,898,160 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 49.3%–53.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 4,741,564 | 7,203,790 | 65.8% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 3,705,224 | 7,413,181 | 50.0% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,543,405 | 7,636,496 | 72.6% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 3,789,932 | 7,734,317 | 49.0% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,756,106 | 7,898,160 | 72.9% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 147/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
North Carolina · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1940
74.0%
609,015 votes · D+48.1
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 73.4%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
69.5%
1,054,889 votes · R+40.6
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 61.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
2,715,375votes
47.6% of the vote · R+3.2
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 2,684,292 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
2,898,423votes
50.9% of the vote · R+3.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 2,758,775 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+44.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+19.4 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +39.7 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+17.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.6 · U.S. R+23.2
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +13.3 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
U.S. Senateopen seat
Roy CoopernomineeMichael WhatleynomineeShannon BraynomineeBrian McGinnisnominee
OPEN: Thom Tillis (R) not seeking re-election. Cooper (D, ex-gov) ~92% vs Whatley (R, ex-RNC chair) ~64.6%. Top toss-up.
U.S. House elections · 306 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 4 · R 10 | 42.9% | 52.7% | 5,483,155 | |
| D 7 · R 7 | 47.7% | 52.0% | 3,760,753 | |
| D 5 · R 8 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 5,325,245 | |
| D 3 · R 10 | 48.3% | 50.4% | 3,663,326 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+1.4
Presidential vote · 2024R+3.2
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 4.6 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 6,080,103 | 2,784,896 | 1,945,580 | 1,345,669 | 3,958 |
| 2012 | 6,655,302 | 2,872,841 | 2,053,881 | 1,709,207 | 19,373 |
| 2016 | 6,924,296 | 2,735,427 | 2,088,381 | 2,068,066 | 32,422 |
| 2020 | 7,378,587 | 2,629,237 | 2,236,582 | 2,457,886 | 54,882 |
| 2022 | 7,422,396 | 2,504,085 | 2,226,339 | 2,641,353 | 50,619 |
| 2024 | 7,854,464 | 2,457,532 | 2,350,382 | 2,965,094 | 81,456 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+84,064 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +922,942 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +32,249 |
| 2012 | +29,492 |
| 2013 | +39,022 |
| 2014 | +34,379 |
| 2015 | +44,759 |
| 2016 | +70,958 |
| 2017 | +64,697 |
| 2018 | +71,915 |
| 2019 | +67,338 |
| 2021 | +103,627 |
| 2022 | +98,454 |
| 2023 | +98,929 |
| 2024 | +83,059 |
| 2025 | +84,064 |
North Carolina went to Trump for president and elected a Democratic governor on the same night.
- Presidential margin, 2024
- R+3.2 — Republican every cycle since 2008, never by more than four points · MIT Election Lab
- The last Democratic win
- Obama by D+0.3 in 2008; then R+2.0, R+3.7, R+1.3, R+3.2 · MIT Election Lab
- Bluest and reddest counties
- Durham D+61.7 against Graham R+63.7 — 22 of 100 counties Democratic · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The urban crescent
- Mecklenburg D+32.7, Wake D+25.4, Durham D+61.7, Guilford D+21.8, Forsyth D+13.1 — 1.9M votes · MIT Election Lab 2024
- Registration inverted
- Unaffiliated 2.97M in 2024 — ahead of 2.46M Democrats and 2.35M Republicans, from a 2.78M Democratic edge in 2008 · North Carolina State Board of Elections
- A split ticket in 2024
- Carried by Trump for president, it elected Josh Stein (D) governor the same night · MIT Election Lab; Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Georgia
Georgia
85.0twin score
% Evangelicalpopulation scale% Catholic≠ % Black
South Carolina
South Carolina
77.4twin score
% Evangelical% Catholic% Black
Alabama
Alabama
70.2twin score
2000 margin% Black% Catholic≠ 2024 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/NC/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did North Carolina vote in 2024?
In 2024, North Carolina voted Republican by 3.2 points (R+3.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,699,141 votes cast, 2,715,375 went Democratic and 2,898,423 went Republican.
When did North Carolina last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which North Carolina voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in North Carolina?
North Carolina has a population of 10,730,404 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in North Carolina?
Median household income in North Carolina is $72,388 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.
What is the political history of North Carolina?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in North Carolina from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.