| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 10,146 | 33,009 | 43,540 | |
| 2020 | R | 10,245 | 32,119 | 42,829 | |
| 2016 | R | 8,425 | 26,621 | 36,320 | |
| 2012 | R | 10,898 | 23,229 | 34,732 | |
| 2008 | R | 12,081 | 22,526 | 35,155 | |
| 2004 | R | 9,999 | 21,186 | 31,348 | |
| 2000 | D | 17,337 | 8,588 | 26,115 | |
| 1996 | R | 8,050 | 12,653 | 22,931 | |
| 1992 | R | 9,033 | 12,543 | 25,576 | |
| 1988 | R | 7,862 | 15,176 | 23,071 | |
| 1984 | R | 7,311 | 17,024 | 24,394 | |
| 1980 | R | 8,738 | 12,965 | 22,310 | |
| 1976 | D | 11,894 | 9,872 | 21,866 | |
| 1972 | R | 4,886 | 12,976 | 18,171 | |
| 1968 | R | 4,746 | 10,433 | 20,274 | |
| 1964 | D | 10,846 | 8,733 | 19,579 | |
| 1960 | R | 8,722 | 11,553 | 20,275 | |
| 1956 | R | 6,861 | 10,833 | 17,694 | |
| 1952 | R | 7,533 | 9,160 | 16,693 | |
| 1948 | D | 5,033 | 4,987 | 10,785 | |
| 1944 | D | 5,419 | 4,365 | 9,784 | |
| 1940 | D | 6,334 | 3,005 | 9,339 | |
| 1936 | D | 6,809 | 3,421 | 10,230 | |
| 1932 | D | 5,479 | 3,750 | 9,275 | |
| 1928 | R | 2,291 | 4,207 | 6,498 | |
| 1924 | D | 3,348 | 2,503 | 5,877 | |
| 1920 | R | 2,931 | 3,298 | 6,229 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,725 | 1,659 | 3,384 | |
| 1912 | D | 1,627 | 482 | 3,287 | |
| 1908 | R | 1,413 | 1,745 | 3,160 | |
| 1904 | R | 1,169 | 1,419 | 2,629 | |
| 1900 | R | 1,111 | 1,317 | 2,463 | |
| 1896 | D | 1,428 | 967 | 2,465 | |
| 1892 | D | 1,172 | 614 | 2,118 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Caldwell County, anchored by Lenoir in the Blue Ridge foothills, has shifted steadily toward one-party dominance over three decades, posting a 52-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 that ranks among the widest in the state.
The Democratic margin in Caldwell County peaked at thirty-six points in 1940. By 2004 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was fifty-three points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Caldwell County's median household income of $56,425 sits well below state and national norms, and 13% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wilkes County and Alexander County.