HarrisDemocratic25.7%8,914TrumpRepublican73.4%25,456OliverLibertarian0.3%87
R+47.7- Lead
- 16,542
- Total
- 34,670
- vs nation
- R+46.2
- Turnout
- 68.5%
Akashiccounty
Rutherford County, NC
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.5% of 50,922 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic26.5%9,135TrumpRepublican72.3%24,891JorgensenLibertarian0.6%218
R+45.8- Lead
- 15,756
- Total
- 34,429
- vs nation
- R+50.2
- Turnout
- 66.1%
ClintonDemocratic24.8%7,512TrumpRepublican72.2%21,871JohnsonLibertarian2.1%624
R+47.4- Lead
- 14,359
- Total
- 30,307
- vs nation
- R+49.5
- Turnout
- 58.8%
ObamaDemocratic32.7%9,374RomneyRepublican66.0%18,954OtherAll other candidates1.3%374
R+33.4- Lead
- 9,580
- Total
- 28,702
- vs nation
- R+37.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic33.6%9,641McCainRepublican65.4%18,769OtherAll other candidates1.1%310
R+31.8- Lead
- 9,128
- Total
- 28,720
- vs nation
- R+39.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic33.2%8,184BushRepublican66.3%16,343OtherAll other candidates0.5%131
R+33.1- Lead
- 8,159
- Total
- 24,658
- vs nation
- R+30.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic35.4%7,697BushRepublican63.3%13,755OtherAll other candidates1.2%264
R+27.9- Lead
- 6,058
- Total
- 21,716
- vs nation
- R+28.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic38.6%7,162DoleRepublican52.7%9,792PerotReform8.5%1,585
R+14.2- Lead
- 2,630
- Total
- 18,571
- vs nation
- R+22.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+47.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 64,9302024 5-year
- Median household income
- $51,4102024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+54.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Green County, KY · twin score 90.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.5%34,901 participants ÷ 50,922 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 49.7%–51.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 30,307 | 51,548 | 58.8% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 22,985 | 51,906 | 44.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 34,529 | 52,209 | 66.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 24,014 | 50,784 | 47.3% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 34,901 | 50,922 | 68.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
17 precincts · 34,670 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -1111 | 728 | 3,461 | 29 | 4,218 | 17.3% | 82.1% | R+64.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -1313 | 1,125 | 1,728 | 21 | 2,874 | 39.1% | 60.1% | R+21.0 |
| Precinct -2727 | 931 | 1,725 | 31 | 2,687 | 34.6% | 64.2% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -09A09A | 403 | 2,203 | 22 | 2,628 | 15.3% | 83.8% | R+68.5 |
| Precinct -3030 | 897 | 1,408 | 20 | 2,325 | 38.6% | 60.6% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct -16A16A | 448 | 1,794 | 22 | 2,264 | 19.8% | 79.2% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct -06A06A | 863 | 1,202 | 34 | 2,099 | 41.1% | 57.3% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -05A05A | 394 | 1,511 | 13 | 1,918 | 20.5% | 78.8% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -04A04A | 375 | 1,458 | 11 | 1,844 | 20.3% | 79.1% | R+58.7 |
| Precinct -03A03A | 275 | 1,482 | 11 | 1,768 | 15.6% | 83.8% | R+68.3 |
| Precinct -1414 | 582 | 1,154 | 19 | 1,755 | 33.2% | 65.8% | R+32.6 |
| Precinct -1818 | 456 | 1,250 | 28 | 1,734 | 26.3% | 72.1% | R+45.8 |
| Precinct -1919 | 275 | 1,265 | 8 | 1,548 | 17.8% | 81.7% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -2929 | 397 | 1,060 | 11 | 1,468 | 27.0% | 72.2% | R+45.2 |
| Precinct -3434 | 235 | 965 | 12 | 1,212 | 19.4% | 79.6% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -2828 | 334 | 866 | 5 | 1,205 | 27.7% | 71.9% | R+44.1 |
| Precinct -10A10A | 196 | 924 | 3 | 1,123 | 17.5% | 82.3% | R+64.8 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +9.7% |
| 1896 | +4.7% |
| 1900 | +2.5% |
| 1904 | +16.9% |
| 1908 | +5.7% |
| 1912 | +54.8% |
| 1916 | +13.3% |
| 1920 | +11.9% |
| 1924 | +13.3% |
| 1928 | −16.3% |
| 1932 | +30.3% |
| 1936 | +34.5% |
| 1940 | +35.7% |
| 1944 | +22.2% |
| 1948 | +14.0% |
| 1952 | −3.9% |
| 1956 | −6.4% |
| 1960 | −2.5% |
| 1964 | +14.6% |
| 1968 | −18.7% |
| 1972 | −38.8% |
| 1976 | +21.3% |
| 1980 | −0.3% |
| 1984 | −24.7% |
| 1988 | −19.7% |
| 1992 | −9.3% |
| 1996 | −14.2% |
| 2000 | −27.9% |
| 2004 | −33.1% |
| 2008 | −31.8% |
| 2012 | −33.4% |
| 2016 | −47.4% |
| 2020 | −45.8% |
| 2024 | −47.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+23.9
Presidential vote · 2024R+47.7
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 24 points more Democratic.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 41,341 | 18,674 | 13,974 | 8,684 | 9 |
| 2012 | 43,932 | 17,979 | 14,863 | 10,985 | 105 |
| 2016 | 45,073 | 15,869 | 16,410 | 12,605 | 189 |
| 2020 | 46,022 | 12,188 | 19,088 | 14,466 | 280 |
| 2022 | 46,646 | 10,783 | 19,818 | 15,788 | 257 |
| 2024 | 48,084 | 9,602 | 21,106 | 16,955 | 421 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+565 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +4,302 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $56,436 in average income, against $61,568 for residents who stayed — 8% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+18.3 on average — 29 points more Democratic-leaning than Rutherford County, NC itself (R+47.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Cleveland County, NC171R+34.9
- Buncombe County, NC111D+24.7
- Spartanburg County, SC77R+33.6
- Polk County, NC71R+25.1
- Henderson County, NC58R+14.5
- McDowell County, NC58R+49.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Cleveland County, NC166
- Spartanburg County, SC90
- Polk County, NC53
- Buncombe County, NC48
- Mecklenburg County, NC41
- Burke County, NC35
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −217 |
| 2012 | −98 |
| 2013 | −189 |
| 2014 | −85 |
| 2015 | +35 |
| 2016 | +97 |
| 2017 | +428 |
| 2018 | +434 |
| 2019 | +461 |
| 2021 | +598 |
| 2022 | +788 |
| 2023 | +904 |
| 2024 | +581 |
| 2025 | +565 |
Rutherford County sits along the Blue Ridge foothills west of Charlotte, where a predominantly rural, working-class white electorate has delivered Republican presidential margins exceeding 45 points in each of the last three cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 47.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 47.7 points.
A population of 64,930, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,410 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Green County and McMinn County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Green County
Kentucky
90.9twin score
median incomeelasticitymedian age≠ 2000 margin
McMinn County
Tennessee
89.5twin score
% Evangelical% unaffiliated2004–2008 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Gulf County
Florida
88.9twin score
% Evangelical% unaffiliated2008–2016 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Rutherford County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37161/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Rutherford County
North Carolina at the ballot boxAll elections →
More in North Carolina
Frequently asked questions
How did Rutherford County, North Carolina vote in 2024?
In 2024, Rutherford County, North Carolina voted Republican by 47.7 points (R+47.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 34,670 votes cast, 8,914 went Democratic and 25,456 went Republican.
When did Rutherford County, North Carolina last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Rutherford County, North Carolina voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Rutherford County, North Carolina?
Rutherford County, North Carolina has a population of 64,930 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Rutherford County, North Carolina?
Median household income in Rutherford County, North Carolina is $51,410 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.
What is the political history of Rutherford County, North Carolina?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Rutherford County, North Carolina from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.