HarrisDemocratic74.5%65,444TrumpRepublican23.7%20,806SteinGreen0.7%618
D+50.8- Lead
- 44,638
- Total
- 87,807
- vs nation
- D+52.3
- Turnout
- 80.0%
Akashiccounty
Orange County, NC
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 80.0% of 112,324 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic74.8%63,594TrumpRepublican23.7%20,176JorgensenLibertarian0.8%653
D+51.1- Lead
- 43,418
- Total
- 84,997
- vs nation
- D+46.6
- Turnout
- 78.0%
ClintonDemocratic72.8%59,923TrumpRepublican22.5%18,557JohnsonLibertarian2.9%2,404
D+50.2- Lead
- 41,366
- Total
- 82,340
- vs nation
- D+48.1
- Turnout
- 81.2%
ObamaDemocratic70.2%53,901RomneyRepublican28.1%21,539OtherAll other candidates1.7%1,317
D+42.2- Lead
- 32,362
- Total
- 76,757
- vs nation
- D+38.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic71.8%53,806McCainRepublican27.1%20,266OtherAll other candidates1.1%838
D+44.8- Lead
- 33,540
- Total
- 74,910
- vs nation
- D+37.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic66.9%42,910BushRepublican32.4%20,771OtherAll other candidates0.7%472
D+34.5- Lead
- 22,139
- Total
- 64,153
- vs nation
- D+37.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic62.7%30,921BushRepublican36.3%17,930OtherAll other candidates1.0%493
D+26.3- Lead
- 12,991
- Total
- 49,344
- vs nation
- D+25.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic61.3%28,674DoleRepublican32.2%15,053PerotReform3.3%1,534
D+29.1- Lead
- 13,621
- Total
- 46,765
- vs nation
- D+20.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+50.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 149,6782024 5-year
- Median household income
- $90,0892024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 66.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+53.9 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+17.5 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Boulder County, CO · twin score 97.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 80.0%89,869 participants ÷ 112,324 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -7.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 63.5%–64.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 82,340 | 101,395 | 81.2% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 67,146 | 104,618 | 64.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 85,251 | 109,277 | 78.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 67,768 | 109,364 | 62.0% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 89,869 | 112,324 | 80.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
40 precincts · 87,807 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -CXCX | 2,943 | 1,774 | 83 | 4,800 | 61.3% | 37.0% | D+24.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CWCW | 1,730 | 2,319 | 38 | 4,087 | 42.3% | 56.7% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -UNCUNC | 3,103 | 655 | 60 | 3,818 | 81.3% | 17.2% | D+64.1 |
| Precinct -OGOG | 2,283 | 1,288 | 67 | 3,638 | 62.8% | 35.4% | D+27.4 |
| Precinct -GBGB | 2,631 | 885 | 96 | 3,612 | 72.8% | 24.5% | D+48.3 |
| Precinct -CF1CF1 | 2,782 | 544 | 89 | 3,415 | 81.5% | 15.9% | D+65.5 |
| Precinct -DADA | 2,818 | 442 | 29 | 3,289 | 85.7% | 13.4% | D+72.2 |
| Precinct -WCWC | 1,846 | 881 | 41 | 2,768 | 66.7% | 31.8% | D+34.9 |
| Precinct -CB1CB1 | 2,194 | 248 | 41 | 2,483 | 88.4% | 10.0% | D+78.4 |
| Precinct -SMSM | 1,347 | 1,053 | 60 | 2,460 | 54.8% | 42.8% | D+12.0 |
| Precinct -WHWH | 1,953 | 403 | 16 | 2,372 | 82.3% | 17.0% | D+65.3 |
| Precinct -ENOENO | 1,436 | 881 | 45 | 2,362 | 60.8% | 37.3% | D+23.5 |
| Precinct -OW1OW1 | 2,051 | 208 | 83 | 2,342 | 87.6% | 8.9% | D+78.7 |
| Precinct -TOTO | 1,320 | 929 | 29 | 2,278 | 57.9% | 40.8% | D+17.2 |
| Precinct -RERE | 1,730 | 429 | 64 | 2,223 | 77.8% | 19.3% | D+58.5 |
| Precinct -RFRF | 1,926 | 252 | 32 | 2,210 | 87.1% | 11.4% | D+75.7 |
| Precinct -WDSWDS | 2,158 | 27 | 0 | 2,185 | 98.8% | 1.2% | D+97.5 |
| Precinct -HFHF | 1,739 | 358 | 48 | 2,145 | 81.1% | 16.7% | D+64.4 |
| Precinct -PAPA | 1,641 | 438 | 45 | 2,124 | 77.3% | 20.6% | D+56.6 |
| Precinct -EFEF | 1,097 | 943 | 22 | 2,062 | 53.2% | 45.7% | D+7.5 |
| Precinct -CGCG | 1,132 | 810 | 16 | 1,958 | 57.8% | 41.4% | D+16.4 |
| Precinct -DMDM | 1,694 | 212 | 48 | 1,954 | 86.7% | 10.8% | D+75.8 |
| Precinct -SJSJ | 1,515 | 340 | 40 | 1,895 | 79.9% | 17.9% | D+62.0 |
| Precinct -ESES | 1,632 | 212 | 25 | 1,869 | 87.3% | 11.3% | D+76.0 |
| Precinct -GLGL | 1,462 | 327 | 48 | 1,837 | 79.6% | 17.8% | D+61.8 |
| Precinct -NSNS | 1,462 | 274 | 16 | 1,752 | 83.4% | 15.6% | D+67.8 |
| Precinct -WDWD | 1,391 | 239 | 32 | 1,662 | 83.7% | 14.4% | D+69.3 |
| Precinct -COCO | 1,427 | 155 | 60 | 1,642 | 86.9% | 9.4% | D+77.5 |
| Precinct -CACA | 829 | 783 | 13 | 1,625 | 51.0% | 48.2% | D+2.8 |
| Precinct -HNHN | 1,088 | 500 | 35 | 1,623 | 67.0% | 30.8% | D+36.2 |
| Precinct -HEHE | 1,079 | 412 | 41 | 1,532 | 70.4% | 26.9% | D+43.5 |
| Precinct -CS1CS1 | 1,088 | 394 | 29 | 1,511 | 72.0% | 26.1% | D+45.9 |
| Precinct -EA1EA1 | 1,284 | 190 | 13 | 1,487 | 86.3% | 12.8% | D+73.6 |
| Precinct -WW1WW1 | 1,275 | 128 | 29 | 1,432 | 89.0% | 8.9% | D+80.1 |
| Precinct -KMKM | 1,177 | 226 | 22 | 1,425 | 82.6% | 15.9% | D+66.7 |
| Precinct -TH1TH1 | 1,204 | 75 | 16 | 1,295 | 93.0% | 5.8% | D+87.2 |
| Precinct -EHEH | 1,017 | 155 | 35 | 1,207 | 84.3% | 12.8% | D+71.4 |
| Precinct -CHCH | 1,052 | 111 | 19 | 1,182 | 89.0% | 9.4% | D+79.6 |
| Precinct -NCNC | 990 | 173 | 19 | 1,182 | 83.8% | 14.6% | D+69.1 |
| Precinct -HH | 918 | 133 | 13 | 1,064 | 86.3% | 12.5% | D+73.8 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +6.4% |
| 1896 | +14.6% |
| 1900 | −0.2% |
| 1904 | +23.1% |
| 1908 | −2.7% |
| 1912 | +41.4% |
| 1916 | +3.0% |
| 1920 | +6.9% |
| 1924 | +27.0% |
| 1928 | −17.5% |
| 1932 | +43.1% |
| 1936 | +45.5% |
| 1940 | +53.9% |
| 1944 | +38.1% |
| 1948 | +29.3% |
| 1952 | +15.0% |
| 1956 | +3.8% |
| 1960 | +15.7% |
| 1964 | +22.8% |
| 1968 | +12.4% |
| 1972 | +4.1% |
| 1976 | +25.6% |
| 1980 | +20.9% |
| 1984 | +13.7% |
| 1988 | +21.1% |
| 1992 | +33.0% |
| 1996 | +29.1% |
| 2000 | +26.3% |
| 2004 | +34.5% |
| 2008 | +44.8% |
| 2012 | +42.2% |
| 2016 | +50.2% |
| 2020 | +51.1% |
| 2024 | +50.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+32.9
Presidential vote · 2024D+50.8
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 18 points more Republican.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 98,263 | 52,520 | 18,307 | 27,320 | 116 |
| 2012 | 112,371 | 56,078 | 19,239 | 36,557 | 497 |
| 2016 | 116,793 | 54,379 | 17,424 | 44,280 | 710 |
| 2020 | 112,362 | 52,830 | 15,070 | 43,696 | 766 |
| 2022 | 111,452 | 52,012 | 13,869 | 44,941 | 630 |
| 2024 | 115,633 | 51,982 | 13,989 | 48,783 | 879 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−452 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +9,051 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $89,939 in average income, against $142,992 for residents who stayed — 37% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+32.4 on average — 18 points more Republican-leaning than Orange County, NC itself (D+50.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Durham County, NC1,135D+61.7
- Wake County, NC583D+25.4
- Alamance County, NC395R+8.1
- Chatham County, NC179D+12.4
- Mecklenburg County, NC130D+32.7
- Guilford County, NC119D+21.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Durham County, NC1,356
- Wake County, NC758
- Alamance County, NC607
- Chatham County, NC313
- Mecklenburg County, NC174
- Guilford County, NC125
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −84 |
| 2012 | +1,736 |
| 2013 | +300 |
| 2014 | −133 |
| 2015 | −56 |
| 2016 | +453 |
| 2017 | −191 |
| 2018 | +3,465 |
| 2019 | −305 |
| 2021 | +5,056 |
| 2022 | +820 |
| 2023 | +32 |
| 2024 | −1,590 |
| 2025 | −452 |
Orange County's D+50.8 margin in 2024 reflects the outsized influence of a flagship research university on local political composition — a pattern common to college-dominated counties nationwide but rarely this pronounced in the South.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 53.9 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 17.5 points in 1928. The 2024 margin was 50.8 points.
A population of 149,678, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $90,089 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Boulder County and Washtenaw County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Boulder County
Colorado
97.0twin score
2004–2024 trajectory≠ % Asian
Washtenaw County
Michigan
97.0twin score
2008–2024 trajectory≠ % unaffiliated
Alexandria city
Virginia
96.9twin score
2004–2024 trajectory≠ median income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Orange County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37135/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Orange County, North Carolina vote in 2024?
In 2024, Orange County, North Carolina voted Democratic by 50.8 points (D+50.8), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 87,807 votes cast, 65,444 went Democratic and 20,806 went Republican.
When did Orange County, North Carolina last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Orange County, North Carolina voted Republican was 1928.
How many people live in Orange County, North Carolina?
Orange County, North Carolina has a population of 149,678 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Orange County, North Carolina?
Median household income in Orange County, North Carolina is $90,089 — above the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.
What is the political history of Orange County, North Carolina?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Orange County, North Carolina from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 31 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.