Akashic

county

Lincoln County, NC

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German16.3%9.4%12.5%

English12.9%12.7%9.5%

American10.9%8.3%5.3%

Irish9.8%8.4%9.4%

Italian3.2%3.3%4.8%

Scottish2.4%2.3%1.3%

Polish2.1%1.0%2.2%

Scotch-Irish1.6%1.4%—

Mexican4.3%5.6%11.3%

Costa Rican0.9%——

Puerto Rican0.5%1.2%1.8%

Cuban0.5%0.3%0.7%

Dominican0.3%0.3%0.7%

Nicaraguan0.3%——

Salvadoran0.3%0.7%0.7%

Guatemalan0.2%0.4%0.5%

African American†5.7%18.3%9.9%

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Lincoln County	North Carolina	United States
Median age	44.4	39.5	39.1
Age 18–24	7.3%	9.5%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	19.5%	17.2%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Lincoln County	North Carolina	United States
Median household income	$80,016	$72,388	$84,427
Poverty rate	11.2%	13.1%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	28.3%	35.8%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Lincoln County	North Carolina	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	8.5%	13.5%	22.3%
Spanish	6.5%	8.7%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Lincoln County	North Carolina	United States
Catholic	7.4%	8.9%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	26.5%	26.5%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	48.8%	48.0%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	15.0%	9.1%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 78.7% of 71,036 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic26.7%14,842TrumpRepublican72.3%40,183OliverLibertarian0.3%194

R+45.6

Lead: 25,341
Total: 55,582
vs nation: R+44.1
Turnout: 78.7%

BidenDemocratic26.4%13,274TrumpRepublican72.4%36,341JorgensenLibertarian0.7%373

R+45.9

Lead: 23,067
Total: 50,217
vs nation: R+50.4
Turnout: 77.9%

ClintonDemocratic24.7%9,897TrumpRepublican72.0%28,806JohnsonLibertarian2.4%971

R+47.2

Lead: 18,909
Total: 40,023
vs nation: R+49.3
Turnout: 67.0%

ObamaDemocratic30.0%11,024RomneyRepublican68.7%25,267OtherAll other candidates1.3%484

R+38.7

Lead: 14,243
Total: 36,775
vs nation: R+42.6
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic32.7%11,713McCainRepublican66.0%23,631OtherAll other candidates1.3%454

R+33.3

Lead: 11,918
Total: 35,798
vs nation: R+40.6
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic31.9%9,434BushRepublican67.8%20,052OtherAll other candidates0.3%93

R+35.9

Lead: 10,618
Total: 29,579
vs nation: R+33.4
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic34.3%8,412BushRepublican65.0%15,951OtherAll other candidates0.7%166

R+30.7

Lead: 7,539
Total: 24,529
vs nation: R+31.3
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic37.0%7,721DoleRepublican54.9%11,439PerotReform7.8%1,619

R+17.8

Lead: 3,718
Total: 20,850
vs nation: R+26.4
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+45.6MIT Election Lab
Population: 92,7162024 5-year
Median household income: $80,0162024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 82.0%2024 5-year
Black: 5.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 8.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+51.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+47.2 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Bedford County, VA · twin score 91.6

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 78.7%55,917 participants ÷ 71,036 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +23.2 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: -0.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 55.6%–59.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	40,023	59,730	67.0%	C/A
2018 · Midterm	31,454	61,892	50.8%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	50,377	64,701	77.9%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	37,022	67,680	54.7%	C/A
2024 · Presidential	55,917	71,036	78.7%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

23 precincts · 55,582 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Lincoln County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -WP32WP32	1,870	3,745	94	5,709	32.8%	65.6%	R+32.8
Precinct -LW31LW31	1,611	2,689	55	4,355	37.0%	61.7%	R+24.8
Precinct -TA37TA37	1,381	2,829	37	4,247	32.5%	66.6%	R+34.1
Precinct -NB35NB35	480	2,748	10	3,238	14.8%	84.9%	R+70.0
Precinct -DN29DN29	816	2,280	18	3,114	26.2%	73.2%	R+47.0
Precinct -HC33HC33	561	2,427	38	3,026	18.5%	80.2%	R+61.7
Precinct -ST36ST36	658	2,092	15	2,765	23.8%	75.7%	R+51.9
Precinct -DW28DW28	703	1,965	28	2,696	26.1%	72.9%	R+46.8
Precinct -DV08DV08	443	2,051	15	2,509	17.7%	81.7%	R+64.1
Precinct -PC22PC22	532	1,797	21	2,350	22.6%	76.5%	R+53.8
Precinct -IS23IS23	555	1,694	27	2,276	24.4%	74.4%	R+50.0
Precinct -LB34LB34	415	1,787	16	2,218	18.7%	80.6%	R+61.9
Precinct -AS25AS25	468	1,572	19	2,059	22.7%	76.3%	R+53.6
Precinct -OB21OB21	375	1,609	13	1,997	18.8%	80.6%	R+61.8
Precinct -BS26BS26	530	1,342	18	1,890	28.0%	71.0%	R+43.0
Precinct -LW18LW18	530	1,053	19	1,602	33.1%	65.7%	R+32.6
Precinct -CF19CF19	480	1,086	30	1,596	30.1%	68.0%	R+38.0
Precinct -SL24SL24	333	1,128	14	1,475	22.6%	76.5%	R+53.9
Precinct -IS20IS20	264	1,190	17	1,471	17.9%	80.9%	R+63.0
Precinct -LS12LS12	528	741	18	1,287	41.0%	57.6%	R+16.6
Precinct -LN11LN11	550	714	11	1,275	43.1%	56.0%	R+12.9
Precinct -LI14LI14	346	862	10	1,218	28.4%	70.8%	R+42.4
Precinct -BC13BC13	413	782	14	1,209	34.2%	64.7%	R+30.5

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+17.5%
1896	+14.2%
1900	−11.8%
1904	+13.9%
1908	+0.2%
1912	+51.1%
1916	+5.2%
1920	+3.0%
1924	+4.5%
1928	−14.9%
1932	+10.5%
1936	+22.3%
1940	+22.5%
1944	+6.2%
1948	−0.8%
1952	−7.2%
1956	−6.4%
1960	−0.6%
1964	+10.9%
1968	−16.0%
1972	−25.2%
1976	+17.1%
1980	−7.1%
1984	−35.5%
1988	−28.7%
1992	−12.8%
1996	−17.8%
2000	−30.7%
2004	−35.9%
2008	−33.3%
2012	−38.7%
2016	−47.2%
2020	−45.9%
2024	−45.6%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	26.7%Harris14,842	72.3%Trump40,183	0.3%Oliver194	R+45.6	D+0.3	R+44.1	55,582
2020	R	26.4%Biden13,274	72.4%Trump36,341	0.7%Jorgensen373	R+45.9	D+1.3	R+50.4	50,217
2016	R	24.7%Clinton9,897	72.0%Trump28,806	2.4%Johnson971	R+47.2	R+8.5	R+49.3	40,023
2012	R	30.0%Obama11,024	68.7%Romney25,267	1.3%	R+38.7	R+5.4	R+42.6	36,775
2008	R	32.7%Obama11,713	66.0%McCain23,631	1.3%	R+33.3	D+2.6	R+40.6	35,798
2004	R	31.9%Kerry9,434	67.8%Bush20,052	0.3%	R+35.9	R+5.2	R+33.4	29,579
2000	R	34.3%Gore8,412	65.0%Bush15,951	0.7%	R+30.7	R+12.9	R+31.3	24,529
1996	R	37.0%Clinton7,721	54.9%Dole11,439	7.8%Perot1,619	R+17.8	R+5.0	R+26.4	20,850
1992	R	36.5%Clinton8,150	49.3%Bush11,018	14.1%Perot3,142	R+12.8	D+15.9	R+18.4	22,355
1988	R	35.5%Dukakis6,444	64.3%Bush11,651	0.2%	R+28.7	D+6.8	R+21.0	18,130
1984	R	32.1%Mondale5,996	67.6%Reagan12,621	0.2%	R+35.5	R+28.5	R+17.3	18,659
1980	R	45.3%Carter7,796	52.4%Reagan9,009	2.3%	R+7.1	R+24.2	D+2.7	17,196
1976	D	58.4%Carter9,462	41.2%Ford6,682	0.4%	D+17.1	D+42.3	D+15.1	16,210
1972	R	36.7%McGovern5,100	61.9%Nixon8,597	1.4%	R+25.2	R+9.2	R+2.0	13,892
1968	R	30.2%Humphrey4,044	46.2%Nixon6,188	23.6%	R+16.0	R+26.9	R+15.3	13,393
1964	D	55.4%Johnson7,304	44.6%Goldwater5,869	0.0%	D+10.9	D+11.5	R+11.7	13,173
1960	R	49.7%Kennedy6,728	50.3%Nixon6,816	0.0%	R+0.6	D+5.8	R+0.8	13,544
1956	R	46.8%Stevenson5,838	53.2%Eisenhower6,637	0.0%	R+6.4	D+0.8	D+9.0	12,475
1952	R	46.4%Stevenson5,389	53.6%Eisenhower6,228	0.0%	R+7.2	R+6.4	D+3.5	11,617
1948	R	42.7%Truman3,570	43.5%Dewey3,635	13.8%	R+0.8	R+7.0	R+5.3	8,358
1944	D	53.1%Roosevelt4,168	46.9%Dewey3,678	0.0%	D+6.2	R+16.3	R+1.2	7,846
1940	D	61.3%Roosevelt4,901	38.7%Willkie3,099	0.0%	D+22.5	D+0.2	D+12.6	8,000
1936	D	61.2%Roosevelt5,515	38.8%Landon3,501	0.0%	D+22.3	D+11.9	R+1.9	9,016
1932	D	55.0%Roosevelt4,399	44.6%Hoover3,563	0.4%	D+10.5	D+25.3	R+7.3	7,996
1928	R	42.6%Smith2,913	57.4%Hoover3,930	0.0%	R+14.9	R+19.3	D+2.6	6,843
1924	D	51.9%Davis2,909	47.4%Coolidge2,658	0.7%La Follette42	D+4.5	D+1.5	D+29.7	5,609
1920	D	51.5%Cox3,331	48.5%Harding3,137	0.0%	D+3.0	R+2.2	D+29.2	6,468
1916	D	52.5%Wilson1,521	47.2%Hughes1,369	0.3%	D+5.2	R+45.8	D+2.1	2,899
1912	D	53.1%Wilson1,280	2.0%Taft49	44.9%	D+51.1	D+50.9	D+31.5	2,410
1908	D	50.1%Bryan1,222	49.9%Taft1,217	0.0%	D+0.2	R+13.7	D+9.8	2,439
1904	D	56.7%Parker1,009	42.7%Roosevelt761	0.6%	D+13.9	D+25.7	D+33.6	1,781
1900	R	43.6%Bryan892	55.3%McKinley1,133	1.1%	R+11.8	R+26.0	R+4.2	2,047
1896	D	56.6%Bryan1,349	42.4%McKinley1,010	1.0%	D+14.2	R+3.3	D+20.3	2,382
1892	D	47.6%Cleveland976	30.1%Harrison617	22.3%	D+17.5	—	D+15.8	2,051
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	26.0%13,722	74.0%39,117	52,839
2020	R	26.9%11,112	73.1%30,155	41,267
2018	R	28.1%8,872	71.9%22,654	31,526

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2022	R	26.0%9,418	72.0%26,130	36,270
2020Class II	R	25.8%Cal Cunningham12,858	69.7%Thom Tillis34,673	49,776
2016Class III	R	24.8%Deborah Ross9,798	70.4%Richard M. Burr27,867	39,580
2014Class II	R	28.1%Kay Hagan6,690	66.5%Thom Tillis15,860	23,848
2010Class III	R	30.0%Elaine Marshall6,958	67.5%Richard M. Burr15,653	23,186
2008Class II	R	38.3%Kay Hagan13,597	57.2%Elizabeth Dole20,333	35,523
2004Class III	R	36.0%Erskine Bowles10,657	62.2%Richard M. Burr18,422	29,635
2002Class II	R	37.4%Erskine Bowles7,649	60.2%Elizabeth Dole12,309	20,432
1998Class III	R	46.0%John Edwards8,001	51.2%Lauch Faircloth8,907	17,408
1996Class II	R	37.2%Harvey B. Gannt8,018	61.0%Jesse Helms13,130	21,529
1992Class III	R	37.7%Terry Sanford8,332	57.3%Lauch Faircloth12,669	22,099
1990Class II	R	38.8%Harvey B. Gannt7,071	61.2%Jesse Helms11,151	18,222
1986Class III	R	43.5%Terry Sanford6,849	56.5%James Broyhill8,900	15,749
1984Class II	R	40.1%James B. Hunt Jr.7,554	59.4%Jesse Helms11,186	18,844
1980Class III	R	47.1%Robert B. Morgan7,924	52.6%John P. East8,855	16,826
1978Class II	D	50.4%John Ingram6,966	49.6%Jesse Helms6,852	13,818
1974Class III	D	58.2%Robert B. Morgan7,977	41.3%William E. Stevens5,658	13,711
1972Class II	R	47.6%Nick Galifianakis6,488	52.4%Jesse Helms7,151	13,639
1968Class III	D	51.3%Sam J. Ervin6,644	48.7%Robert V. Somers6,301	12,945
1966Class II	D	51.7%B. Everett Jordan5,839	48.3%John S. Shallcross5,465	11,304
1962Class III	D	53.9%Sam J. Ervin6,682	46.1%Claude L. Greene Jr.5,712	12,394
1960Class II	D	53.9%B. Everett Jordan7,133	46.1%Kyle Hayes6,106	13,239
1956Class III	D	53.2%Sam J. Ervin6,453	46.8%Joel A. Johnson5,680	12,133
1954Class II	D	58.5%W. Kerr Scott6,341	41.5%Paul C. West4,503	10,844
1950Class III	D	58.7%Clyde R. Hoey5,157	41.3%Halsey B. Leavitt3,634	8,791
1948Class II	D	55.9%J. Melville Broughton4,534	44.0%John A. Wilkinson3,569	8,107
1944Class III	D	54.6%Clyde R. Hoey4,198	45.4%A.I. Ferree3,494	7,692
1942Class II	D	55.3%Josiah W. Bailey3,933	44.7%Sam J. Morris3,182	7,115
1938Class III	—	0.0%Robert R. Reynolds0	0.0%Charles A. Jonas0	8,067
1936Class II	D	58.5%Josiah W. Bailey5,184	41.5%Frank R. Patton3,683	8,867
1932Class III	D	52.1%Robert R. Reynolds4,297	47.9%Jake F. Newell3,953	8,250
1930Class II	D	51.1%Josiah W. Bailey4,023	48.9%George M. Pritchard3,847	7,870
1926Class III	D	52.2%Lee S. Overman3,115	47.8%Johnson J. Hayes2,847	5,962
1924Class II	D	52.4%Furnifold Simmons2,948	47.6%A.A. Whitener2,673	5,621
1920Class III	D	51.6%Lee S. Overman3,337	48.4%A.E. Holton3,125	6,462
1918Class II	D	51.2%Furnifold Simmons1,438	48.8%John M. Morehead1,372	2,810
1914Class III	D	51.7%Lee S. Overman1,213	48.3%A.A. Whitener1,134	2,347

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1958Special · Class II	D	59.9%B. Everett Jordan6,770	40.1%Richard C. Clarke Jr.4,541	11,311
1954Special · Class III	—	0.0%Sam J. Ervin0	0.0%None0	6,337
1950Special · Class II	D	58.3%Willis Smith5,098	41.7%E.L. Gavin3,642	8,740

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	35.0%Josh Stein19,084	59.1%Mark Robinson32,188	54,497
2020	R	29.4%Roy Cooper14,730	69.3%Dan Forest34,711	50,108
2016	R	28.4%Roy Cooper11,331	69.2%Pat McCrory27,558	39,848
2012	R	22.4%Walter Dalton8,227	76.0%Pat McCrory27,845	36,659
2008	R	30.0%Bev Perdue10,691	67.8%Pat McCrory24,193	35,657
2004	R	46.0%Mike Easley13,654	52.5%Patrick Ballantine15,584	29,685
2000	R	42.0%Mike Easley10,465	56.2%Richard Vinroot14,003	24,911
1996	R	46.4%Jim Hunt10,023	52.5%Robin Hayes11,341	21,610
1992	R	44.8%Jim Hunt9,929	50.3%Jim Gardner11,160	22,187
1988	R	38.4%Robert B. Jordan7,066	61.6%James G. Martin11,320	18,386
1984	R	36.5%Rufus L. Edmisten6,910	63.4%James G. Martin12,010	18,946
1980	D	56.0%Jim Hunt9,491	43.7%I. Beverly Lake7,400	16,948
1976	D	62.2%Jim Hunt9,960	37.6%David Flaherty6,032	16,025

voter registration

Registered voters

By party of registration, over time

Party registration · 2024R+31.1

Presidential vote · 2024R+45.6

Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 14 points more Democratic.

DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties

Voter registration in Lincoln County, NC
Year	Total registered	Democratic	Republican	Unaffiliated	Other
2008	48,235	16,872	20,574	10,769	20
2012	53,245	16,353	22,504	14,298	90
2016	55,853	14,558	24,225	16,850	220
2020	62,727	12,454	29,433	20,400	440
2022	66,513	12,237	31,196	22,634	446
2024	70,666	11,797	33,808	24,447	614

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

+997 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +18,575 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $87,534 in average income, against $96,983 for residents who stayed — 10% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+9.0 on average — 37 points more Democratic-leaning than Lincoln County, NC itself (R+45.6).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Mecklenburg County, NC692D+32.7
Gaston County, NC535R+25.0
Catawba County, NC385R+37.9
Iredell County, NC154R+32.5
Cleveland County, NC111R+34.9
Cabarrus County, NC80R+7.7

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Catawba County, NC509
Gaston County, NC388
Mecklenburg County, NC338
Cleveland County, NC100
Iredell County, NC99
Cabarrus County, NC57

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Lincoln County, NC in Lincoln County, NC: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+86
2012	+339
2013	+370
2014	+293
2015	+1,073
2016	+618
2017	+1,285
2018	+1,487
2019	+2,031
2021	+2,989
2022	+3,037
2023	+2,426
2024	+1,544
2025	+997

Lincoln County, anchored by Lincolnton in the western Piedmont, has delivered lopsided Republican margins for over a decade, with its largely rural and small-town electorate showing little competitive movement in recent cycles.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 51.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 47.2 points in 2016. The 2024 margin was 45.6 points.

A population of 92,716, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,016 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bedford County and Loudon County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Bedford County

Virginia

91.6twin score

2004–2012 trajectoryelasticity

Loudon County

Tennessee

90.3twin score

2004–2016 trajectoryelasticity

Nassau County

Florida

90.2twin score

elasticity2008–2020 trajectory≠ American ancestry

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

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Cities & towns in Lincoln County

North Carolina at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2022 Governorstate + county2024 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Lincoln County, North Carolina vote in 2024?

In 2024, Lincoln County, North Carolina voted Republican by 45.6 points (R+45.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 55,582 votes cast, 14,842 went Democratic and 40,183 went Republican.

When did Lincoln County, North Carolina last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Lincoln County, North Carolina voted Democratic was 1976.

How many people live in Lincoln County, North Carolina?

Lincoln County, North Carolina has a population of 92,716 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Lincoln County, North Carolina?

Median household income in Lincoln County, North Carolina is $80,016 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.

What is the political history of Lincoln County, North Carolina?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lincoln County, North Carolina from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.

Measure

Lincoln County

North Carolina

United States

Median age

44.4

39.5

39.1

Age 18–24

7.3%

9.5%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

19.5%

17.2%

Measure

Lincoln County

North Carolina

United States

Median household income

$80,016

$72,388

$84,427

Poverty rate

11.2%

13.1%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

28.3%

35.8%

35.6%

Measure

Lincoln County

North Carolina

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

8.5%

13.5%

22.3%

Spanish

6.5%

8.7%

13.6%

Measure

Lincoln County

North Carolina

United States

Catholic

7.4%

8.9%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

26.5%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

48.8%

48.0%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

15.0%

9.1%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+45.6MIT Election Lab

Population

92,7162024 5-year

Median household income

$80,0162024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

82.0%2024 5-year

Black

5.9%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

8.1%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+51.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+47.2 in 2016MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Bedford County, VA · twin score 91.6

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

40,023

59,730

67.0%

C/A

2018 · Midterm

31,454

61,892

50.8%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

50,377

64,701

77.9%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

37,022

67,680

54.7%

C/A

2024 · Presidential

55,917

71,036

78.7%

A/A

Lincoln County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -WP32WP32

1,870

3,745

5,709

32.8%

65.6%

R+32.8

Precinct -LW31LW31

1,611

2,689

4,355

37.0%

61.7%

R+24.8

Precinct -TA37TA37

1,381

2,829

4,247

32.5%

66.6%

R+34.1

Precinct -NB35NB35

480

2,748

3,238

14.8%

84.9%

R+70.0

Precinct -DN29DN29

816

2,280

3,114

26.2%

73.2%

R+47.0

Precinct -HC33HC33

561

2,427

3,026

18.5%

80.2%

R+61.7

Precinct -ST36ST36

658

2,092

2,765

23.8%

75.7%

R+51.9

Precinct -DW28DW28

703

1,965

2,696

26.1%

72.9%

R+46.8

Precinct -DV08DV08

443

2,051

2,509

17.7%

81.7%

R+64.1

Precinct -PC22PC22

532

1,797

2,350

22.6%

76.5%

R+53.8

Precinct -IS23IS23

555

1,694

2,276

24.4%

74.4%

R+50.0

Precinct -LB34LB34

415

1,787

2,218

18.7%

80.6%

R+61.9

Precinct -AS25AS25

468

1,572

2,059

22.7%

76.3%

R+53.6

Precinct -OB21OB21

375

1,609

1,997

18.8%

80.6%

R+61.8

Precinct -BS26BS26

530

1,342

1,890

28.0%

71.0%

R+43.0

Precinct -LW18LW18

530

1,053

1,602

33.1%

65.7%

R+32.6

Precinct -CF19CF19

480

1,086

1,596

30.1%

68.0%

R+38.0

Precinct -SL24SL24

333

1,128

1,475

22.6%

76.5%

R+53.9

Precinct -IS20IS20

264

1,190

1,471

17.9%

80.9%

R+63.0

Precinct -LS12LS12

528

741

1,287

41.0%

57.6%

R+16.6

Precinct -LN11LN11

550

714

1,275

43.1%

56.0%

R+12.9

Precinct -LI14LI14

346

862

1,218

28.4%

70.8%

R+42.4

Precinct -BC13BC13

413

782

1,209

34.2%

64.7%

R+30.5

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+17.5%
1896	+14.2%
1900	−11.8%
1904	+13.9%
1908	+0.2%
1912	+51.1%
1916	+5.2%
1920	+3.0%
1924	+4.5%
1928	−14.9%
1932	+10.5%
1936	+22.3%
1940	+22.5%
1944	+6.2%
1948	−0.8%
1952	−7.2%
1956	−6.4%
1960	−0.6%
1964	+10.9%
1968	−16.0%
1972	−25.2%
1976	+17.1%
1980	−7.1%
1984	−35.5%
1988	−28.7%
1992	−12.8%
1996	−17.8%
2000	−30.7%
2004	−35.9%
2008	−33.3%
2012	−38.7%
2016	−47.2%
2020	−45.9%
2024	−45.6%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

26.7%Harris14,842

72.3%Trump40,183

0.3%Oliver194

R+45.6

D+0.3

R+44.1

55,582

2020

26.4%Biden13,274

72.4%Trump36,341

0.7%Jorgensen373

R+45.9

D+1.3

R+50.4

50,217

2016

24.7%Clinton9,897

72.0%Trump28,806

2.4%Johnson971

R+47.2

R+8.5

R+49.3

40,023

2012

30.0%Obama11,024

68.7%Romney25,267

1.3%

R+38.7

R+5.4

R+42.6

36,775

2008

32.7%Obama11,713

66.0%McCain23,631

1.3%

R+33.3

D+2.6

R+40.6

35,798

2004

31.9%Kerry9,434

67.8%Bush20,052

0.3%

R+35.9

R+5.2

R+33.4

29,579

2000

34.3%Gore8,412

65.0%Bush15,951

0.7%

R+30.7

R+12.9

R+31.3

24,529

1996

37.0%Clinton7,721

54.9%Dole11,439

7.8%Perot1,619

R+17.8

R+5.0

R+26.4

20,850

1992

36.5%Clinton8,150

49.3%Bush11,018

14.1%Perot3,142

R+12.8

D+15.9

R+18.4

22,355

1988

35.5%Dukakis6,444

64.3%Bush11,651

0.2%

R+28.7

D+6.8

R+21.0

18,130

1984

32.1%Mondale5,996

67.6%Reagan12,621

0.2%

R+35.5

R+28.5

R+17.3

18,659

1980

45.3%Carter7,796

52.4%Reagan9,009

2.3%

R+7.1

R+24.2

D+2.7

17,196

1976

58.4%Carter9,462

41.2%Ford6,682

0.4%

D+17.1

D+42.3

D+15.1

16,210

1972

36.7%McGovern5,100

61.9%Nixon8,597

1.4%

R+25.2

R+9.2

R+2.0

13,892

1968

30.2%Humphrey4,044

46.2%Nixon6,188

23.6%

R+16.0

R+26.9

R+15.3

13,393

1964

55.4%Johnson7,304

44.6%Goldwater5,869

0.0%

D+10.9

D+11.5

R+11.7

13,173

1960

49.7%Kennedy6,728

50.3%Nixon6,816

0.0%

R+0.6

D+5.8

R+0.8

13,544

1956

46.8%Stevenson5,838

53.2%Eisenhower6,637

0.0%

R+6.4

D+0.8

D+9.0

12,475

1952

46.4%Stevenson5,389

53.6%Eisenhower6,228

0.0%

R+7.2

R+6.4

D+3.5

11,617

1948

42.7%Truman3,570

43.5%Dewey3,635

13.8%

R+0.8

R+7.0

R+5.3

8,358

1944

53.1%Roosevelt4,168

46.9%Dewey3,678

0.0%

D+6.2

R+16.3

R+1.2

7,846

1940

61.3%Roosevelt4,901

38.7%Willkie3,099

0.0%

D+22.5

D+0.2

D+12.6

8,000

1936

61.2%Roosevelt5,515

38.8%Landon3,501

0.0%

D+22.3

D+11.9

R+1.9

9,016

1932

55.0%Roosevelt4,399

44.6%Hoover3,563

0.4%

D+10.5

D+25.3

R+7.3

7,996

1928

42.6%Smith2,913

57.4%Hoover3,930

0.0%

R+14.9

R+19.3

D+2.6

6,843

1924

51.9%Davis2,909

47.4%Coolidge2,658

0.7%La Follette42

D+4.5

D+1.5

D+29.7

5,609

1920

51.5%Cox3,331

48.5%Harding3,137

0.0%

D+3.0

R+2.2

D+29.2

6,468

1916

52.5%Wilson1,521

47.2%Hughes1,369

0.3%

D+5.2

R+45.8

D+2.1

2,899

1912

53.1%Wilson1,280

2.0%Taft49

44.9%

D+51.1

D+50.9

D+31.5

2,410

1908

50.1%Bryan1,222

49.9%Taft1,217

0.0%

D+0.2

R+13.7

D+9.8

2,439

1904

56.7%Parker1,009

42.7%Roosevelt761

0.6%

D+13.9

D+25.7

D+33.6

1,781

1900

43.6%Bryan892

55.3%McKinley1,133

1.1%

R+11.8

R+26.0

R+4.2

2,047

1896

56.6%Bryan1,349

42.4%McKinley1,010

1.0%

D+14.2

R+3.3

D+20.3

2,382

1892

47.6%Cleveland976

30.1%Harrison617

22.3%

D+17.5

—

D+15.8

2,051

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

26.0%13,722

74.0%39,117

52,839

2020

26.9%11,112

73.1%30,155

41,267

2018

28.1%8,872

71.9%22,654

31,526

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2022

26.0%9,418

72.0%26,130

36,270

2020Class II

25.8%Cal Cunningham12,858

69.7%Thom Tillis34,673

49,776

2016Class III

24.8%Deborah Ross9,798

70.4%Richard M. Burr27,867

39,580

2014Class II

28.1%Kay Hagan6,690

66.5%Thom Tillis15,860

23,848

2010Class III

30.0%Elaine Marshall6,958

67.5%Richard M. Burr15,653

23,186

2008Class II

38.3%Kay Hagan13,597

57.2%Elizabeth Dole20,333

35,523

2004Class III

36.0%Erskine Bowles10,657

62.2%Richard M. Burr18,422

29,635

2002Class II

37.4%Erskine Bowles7,649

60.2%Elizabeth Dole12,309

20,432

1998Class III

46.0%John Edwards8,001

51.2%Lauch Faircloth8,907

17,408

1996Class II

37.2%Harvey B. Gannt8,018

61.0%Jesse Helms13,130

21,529

1992Class III

37.7%Terry Sanford8,332

57.3%Lauch Faircloth12,669

22,099

1990Class II

38.8%Harvey B. Gannt7,071

61.2%Jesse Helms11,151

18,222

1986Class III

43.5%Terry Sanford6,849

56.5%James Broyhill8,900

15,749

1984Class II

40.1%James B. Hunt Jr.7,554

59.4%Jesse Helms11,186

18,844

1980Class III

47.1%Robert B. Morgan7,924

52.6%John P. East8,855

16,826

1978Class II

50.4%John Ingram6,966

49.6%Jesse Helms6,852

13,818

1974Class III

58.2%Robert B. Morgan7,977

41.3%William E. Stevens5,658

13,711

1972Class II

47.6%Nick Galifianakis6,488

52.4%Jesse Helms7,151

13,639

1968Class III

51.3%Sam J. Ervin6,644

48.7%Robert V. Somers6,301

12,945

1966Class II

51.7%B. Everett Jordan5,839

48.3%John S. Shallcross5,465

11,304

1962Class III

53.9%Sam J. Ervin6,682

46.1%Claude L. Greene Jr.5,712

12,394

1960Class II

53.9%B. Everett Jordan7,133

46.1%Kyle Hayes6,106

13,239

1956Class III

53.2%Sam J. Ervin6,453

46.8%Joel A. Johnson5,680

12,133

1954Class II

58.5%W. Kerr Scott6,341

41.5%Paul C. West4,503

10,844

1950Class III

58.7%Clyde R. Hoey5,157

41.3%Halsey B. Leavitt3,634

8,791

1948Class II

55.9%J. Melville Broughton4,534

44.0%John A. Wilkinson3,569

8,107

1944Class III

54.6%Clyde R. Hoey4,198

45.4%A.I. Ferree3,494

7,692

1942Class II

55.3%Josiah W. Bailey3,933

44.7%Sam J. Morris3,182

7,115

1938Class III

—

0.0%Robert R. Reynolds0

0.0%Charles A. Jonas0

8,067

1936Class II

58.5%Josiah W. Bailey5,184

41.5%Frank R. Patton3,683

8,867

1932Class III

52.1%Robert R. Reynolds4,297

47.9%Jake F. Newell3,953

8,250

1930Class II

51.1%Josiah W. Bailey4,023

48.9%George M. Pritchard3,847

7,870

1926Class III

52.2%Lee S. Overman3,115

47.8%Johnson J. Hayes2,847

5,962

1924Class II

52.4%Furnifold Simmons2,948

47.6%A.A. Whitener2,673

5,621

1920Class III

51.6%Lee S. Overman3,337

48.4%A.E. Holton3,125

6,462

1918Class II

51.2%Furnifold Simmons1,438

48.8%John M. Morehead1,372

2,810

1914Class III

51.7%Lee S. Overman1,213

48.3%A.A. Whitener1,134

2,347

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1958Special · Class II

59.9%B. Everett Jordan6,770

40.1%Richard C. Clarke Jr.4,541

11,311

1954Special · Class III

—

0.0%Sam J. Ervin0

0.0%None0

6,337

1950Special · Class II

58.3%Willis Smith5,098

41.7%E.L. Gavin3,642

8,740

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

35.0%Josh Stein19,084

59.1%Mark Robinson32,188

54,497

2020

29.4%Roy Cooper14,730

69.3%Dan Forest34,711

50,108

2016

28.4%Roy Cooper11,331

69.2%Pat McCrory27,558

39,848

2012

22.4%Walter Dalton8,227

76.0%Pat McCrory27,845

36,659

2008

30.0%Bev Perdue10,691

67.8%Pat McCrory24,193

35,657

2004

46.0%Mike Easley13,654

52.5%Patrick Ballantine15,584

29,685

2000

42.0%Mike Easley10,465

56.2%Richard Vinroot14,003

24,911

1996

46.4%Jim Hunt10,023

52.5%Robin Hayes11,341

21,610

1992

44.8%Jim Hunt9,929

50.3%Jim Gardner11,160

22,187

1988

38.4%Robert B. Jordan7,066

61.6%James G. Martin11,320

18,386

1984

36.5%Rufus L. Edmisten6,910

63.4%James G. Martin12,010

18,946

1980

56.0%Jim Hunt9,491

43.7%I. Beverly Lake7,400

16,948

1976

62.2%Jim Hunt9,960

37.6%David Flaherty6,032

16,025

Frequently asked questions

How did Lincoln County, North Carolina vote in 2024?

In 2024, Lincoln County, North Carolina voted Republican by 45.6 points (R+45.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 55,582 votes cast, 14,842 went Democratic and 40,183 went Republican.

When did Lincoln County, North Carolina last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Lincoln County, North Carolina voted Democratic was 1976.

How many people live in Lincoln County, North Carolina?

Lincoln County, North Carolina has a population of 92,716 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Lincoln County, North Carolina?

Median household income in Lincoln County, North Carolina is $80,016 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.

What is the political history of Lincoln County, North Carolina?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lincoln County, North Carolina from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.