HarrisDemocratic32.0%12,460TrumpRepublican66.9%26,042OliverLibertarian0.4%166
R+34.9- Lead
- 13,582
- Total
- 38,909
- vs nation
- R+33.4
- Turnout
- 79.9%
Akashiccounty
Pender County, NC
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 79.9% of 49,006 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic34.3%11,723TrumpRepublican64.3%21,956JorgensenLibertarian1.0%329
R+29.9- Lead
- 10,233
- Total
- 34,169
- vs nation
- R+34.4
- Turnout
- 73.2%
ClintonDemocratic33.5%9,354TrumpRepublican63.3%17,639JohnsonLibertarian2.4%683
R+29.7- Lead
- 8,285
- Total
- 27,885
- vs nation
- R+31.8
- Turnout
- 66.0%
ObamaDemocratic39.3%9,632RomneyRepublican59.6%14,617OtherAll other candidates1.1%278
R+20.3- Lead
- 4,985
- Total
- 24,527
- vs nation
- R+24.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic41.7%9,907McCainRepublican57.3%13,618OtherAll other candidates0.9%224
R+15.6- Lead
- 3,711
- Total
- 23,749
- vs nation
- R+22.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic41.0%6,999BushRepublican58.7%10,037OtherAll other candidates0.3%49
R+17.8- Lead
- 3,038
- Total
- 17,085
- vs nation
- R+15.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic45.3%6,415BushRepublican54.1%7,661OtherAll other candidates0.6%78
R+8.8- Lead
- 1,246
- Total
- 14,154
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic45.3%5,409DoleRepublican46.4%5,538PerotReform7.9%945
R+1.1- Lead
- 129
- Total
- 11,940
- vs nation
- R+9.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 65,5502024 5-year
- Median household income
- $80,3962024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 12.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+76.1 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cecil County, MD · twin score 70.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 79.9%39,163 participants ÷ 49,006 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +21.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 58.0%–59.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 27,885 | 42,235 | 66.0% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 21,021 | 44,201 | 47.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 34,256 | 46,770 | 73.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 24,036 | 46,833 | 51.3% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 39,163 | 49,006 | 79.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
18 precincts · 38,909 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -LT18LT18 | 1,323 | 3,579 | 60 | 4,962 | 26.7% | 72.1% | R+45.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -SP15SP15 | 1,316 | 3,025 | 53 | 4,394 | 29.9% | 68.8% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -UT14UT14 | 1,228 | 3,019 | 58 | 4,305 | 28.5% | 70.1% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -SC13SC13 | 1,263 | 2,734 | 45 | 4,042 | 31.2% | 67.6% | R+36.4 |
| Precinct -MT19MT19 | 1,062 | 2,212 | 34 | 3,308 | 32.1% | 66.9% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -CF11CF11 | 723 | 1,918 | 25 | 2,666 | 27.1% | 71.9% | R+44.8 |
| Precinct -SB02SB02 | 917 | 1,624 | 30 | 2,571 | 35.7% | 63.2% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -SH12SH12 | 630 | 1,468 | 15 | 2,113 | 29.8% | 69.5% | R+39.7 |
| Precinct -NB02NB02 | 558 | 1,162 | 9 | 1,729 | 32.3% | 67.2% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -RP20RP20 | 596 | 909 | 17 | 1,522 | 39.2% | 59.7% | R+20.6 |
| Precinct -LC09LC09 | 364 | 947 | 14 | 1,325 | 27.5% | 71.5% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -GR06GR06 | 530 | 681 | 13 | 1,224 | 43.3% | 55.6% | R+12.3 |
| Precinct -UU18UU18 | 359 | 848 | 10 | 1,217 | 29.5% | 69.7% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -CL05CL05 | 619 | 463 | 9 | 1,091 | 56.7% | 42.4% | D+14.3 |
| Precinct -LU16LU16 | 219 | 718 | 7 | 944 | 23.2% | 76.1% | R+52.9 |
| Precinct -CS04CS04 | 281 | 498 | 6 | 785 | 35.8% | 63.4% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -UH08UH08 | 404 | 183 | 2 | 589 | 68.6% | 31.1% | D+37.5 |
| Precinct -CT03CT03 | 68 | 54 | 0 | 122 | 55.7% | 44.3% | D+11.5 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −4.5% |
| 1896 | +4.6% |
| 1900 | +35.2% |
| 1904 | +68.6% |
| 1908 | +42.7% |
| 1912 | +75.6% |
| 1916 | +41.6% |
| 1920 | +38.7% |
| 1924 | +63.8% |
| 1928 | −13.1% |
| 1932 | +75.8% |
| 1936 | +75.4% |
| 1940 | +76.1% |
| 1944 | +59.4% |
| 1948 | +48.2% |
| 1952 | +27.6% |
| 1956 | +37.0% |
| 1960 | +36.6% |
| 1964 | +24.1% |
| 1968 | +16.5% |
| 1972 | −39.6% |
| 1976 | +36.1% |
| 1980 | +18.1% |
| 1984 | −7.7% |
| 1988 | −5.9% |
| 1992 | +7.8% |
| 1996 | −1.1% |
| 2000 | −8.8% |
| 2004 | −17.8% |
| 2008 | −15.6% |
| 2012 | −20.3% |
| 2016 | −29.7% |
| 2020 | −29.9% |
| 2024 | −34.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+20.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+34.9
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 15 points more Democratic.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 33,734 | 14,598 | 11,610 | 7,495 | 31 |
| 2012 | 36,359 | 14,054 | 12,862 | 9,321 | 122 |
| 2016 | 40,208 | 13,114 | 14,921 | 11,948 | 225 |
| 2020 | 45,057 | 11,908 | 17,831 | 14,904 | 414 |
| 2022 | 47,896 | 11,375 | 19,076 | 17,027 | 418 |
| 2024 | 52,117 | 10,805 | 21,311 | 19,409 | 592 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,881 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +20,829 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $85,908 in average income, against $87,725 for residents who stayed — 2% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+7.1 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Pender County, NC itself (R+34.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- New Hanover County, NC760D+0.6
- Onslow County, NC299R+35.8
- Wake County, NC107D+25.4
- Brunswick County, NC101R+24.8
- Duplin County, NC61R+28.9
- Guilford County, NC33D+21.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- New Hanover County, NC490
- Onslow County, NC325
- Brunswick County, NC95
- Duplin County, NC76
- Wake County, NC56
- Mecklenburg County, NC33
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +631 |
| 2012 | +396 |
| 2013 | +936 |
| 2014 | +1,005 |
| 2015 | +1,414 |
| 2016 | +1,277 |
| 2017 | +1,858 |
| 2018 | +1,236 |
| 2019 | +957 |
| 2021 | +2,613 |
| 2022 | +2,541 |
| 2023 | +2,465 |
| 2024 | +1,619 |
| 2025 | +1,881 |
Pender County stretches from the outskirts of Wilmington into rural pine flatlands, a mix that produces some of North Carolina's more lopsided presidential margins—R+34.9 in 2024—despite modest population growth along its southeastern edge.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.1 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 39.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 34.9 points.
A population of 65,550, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,396 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cecil County and Louisa County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Cecil County
Maryland
70.5twin score
population scale2000 marginmedian income≠ Irish ancestry
Louisa County
Virginia
68.3twin score
median incomecollege share2000 margin≠ French ancestry
Leavenworth County
Kansas
64.9twin score
% unaffiliatedpopulation scalemedian income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Pender County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37141/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Pender County
North Carolina at the ballot boxAll elections →
More in North Carolina
Frequently asked questions
How did Pender County, North Carolina vote in 2024?
In 2024, Pender County, North Carolina voted Republican by 34.9 points (R+34.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 38,909 votes cast, 12,460 went Democratic and 26,042 went Republican.
When did Pender County, North Carolina last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pender County, North Carolina voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Pender County, North Carolina?
Pender County, North Carolina has a population of 65,550 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pender County, North Carolina?
Median household income in Pender County, North Carolina is $80,396 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.
What is the political history of Pender County, North Carolina?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Pender County, North Carolina from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.